Okene and Adavi LGAs in Kogi Central gave the APC candidate more than half of his total votes in the election.
The outcome of the 11 November governorship election in Kogi State validates some analysts' prediction that the contest was mainly between the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Usman Ododo, and the Social Democratic Party's (SDP), Murtala Ajaka.
Surprisingly, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled the state for 12 years from 2003 to 2015, recorded its worst electoral performance in the state in the poll as its candidate, Dino Melaye, was returned in a distant third position, failing to win in any of the state's 21 local government area (LGAs).
The election results, as announced by the electoral commission, INEC, and analysed by PREMIUM TIMES, revealed a curious voting pattern that shot the APC candidate into victory.
Although Mr Ododo had the formidable backing of the state government and the ruling APC, Mr Ajaka of the SDP seemed to have better prospects going into the election. This was largely because he is from the senatorial district that has the most voters in an election that showed voters were heavily influenced by ethnic sentiment.
The battle for the governorship of this North-central state since its creation in 1991 has always been between candidates from the majority Igala of Kogi East and the others.
Until the 2015 election in which the outgoing Governor Yahaya Bello gained the seat following the sudden death of the original APC candidate, Audu Abubakar, while the votes were still being tallied, the three previous elected governors of the state had all been Igalas from Kogi East.
Mr Bello is from the second largest ethnic group in the state - the Ebira of Kogi West senatorial district. Other groups like the Okun Yoruba, which is the largest in Kogi Central district, are part of the minorities in the state.
The SDP candidate, Mr Ajaka, is Igala while Mr Ododo, the APC candidate, is Ebira. Mr Ajaka was a national officer of the APC until he ditched the ruling party after being disallowed from participating in its governorship primary in Kogi State.
Preliminary Voters Data
A total of 1,833,160 voters collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) ahead of the election in Kogi state, according to INEC.
However, only 796,109 or 43.43 per cent of them turned out to vote (accredited) on election day.
Kogi East Senatorial district, the stronghold of Mr Ajaka, had 49 per cent of the voters (905,274), compared to the 466,790 (or 25.46 per cent) in Kogi West and 461,096 (or 25.15 per cent) voters in Kogi Central.
Three of the seven LGAs in the state with over 100,000 voters each are in Kogi East: Dekina, with 184,264; Ankpa with 164,514; and Olamaboro with 101,017 eligible voters.
The East senatorial district also has nine of the state's 21 local government areas, compared to seven in Kogi West and five in Kogi Central.
Holding largest voting bloc not enough?
Despite Mr Ajaka taking hold of the largest voting bloc (Kogi East Senatorial District), winning eight of the nine LGAs in the district, it was not enough for him to win the election.
This is largely due to the level of voter turnout recorded in the district, compared to what was recorded in Kogi West where Mr Odod got most of his votes.
According to the results declared by the state returning officer, Johnson Urama, only four of every 10 voters in the state turned out to vote on election day. However, the state's average turnout would have been much lower if not for the curious numbers returned from three of the five LGAs in Kogi Central district.
Mr Ododo garnered 446,237 votes to defeat Mr Ajaka who garnered 259,052 votes.
Mr Ododo won in all the five LGAs in Kogi Central, in six of the seven LGAs in Kogi West and only one of the nine LGAs in Kogi East - giving him 13 LGAs in all. Mr Ajaka won all the LGAs in Kogi East, except Bassa where the APC candidate beat him with 2,000 votes.
LGAs with highest number of votes
Okene and Adavi LGAs in Kogi Central recorded the two highest numbers of votes, which gave the APC candidate more than half of his total votes in the election.
Mr Ododo secured 245,149 or 54.9 per cent of his total 446,237 votes from the two LGAs.
The numbers showed that nine out of every 10 eligible voters turned out in the two LGAs and almost all of them voted for the APC.
While voter turnout averaged 40 per cent across the state, Okene LGA had an incredible 95 per cent turnout and its neighbouring Adavi LGA recorded 91 per cent!
Nine out of every 10 voters in the two LGAs voted for the APC, according to the results declared by INEC officials.
None of the 18 other candidates had more than 1 per cent of votes in the two LGAs.
Dekina LGA in Kogi East followed the two LGAs above in volume with 60,000 votes cast. The LGA had 184,000 eligible voters.
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Ogori Magongo cast the fewest votes, with 2,274. This, however, was because of the cancellation of returns from nine wards in the LGA after the result sheets were found to have been filled before voting started.
Comparing 2019 and 2023 elections
In the 2019 election in which Governor Bello was reelected, he polled 406,222 votes to defeat the then-PDP candidate, Musa Wada, who scored 189,704 votes.
In an election marred by violence and ballot box snatching, Mr Bello won in 12 of the 21 LGAs: Lokoja, Ibaji, Adavi, Okehi, Okene, Kabba Bunu, Ogori Magongo, Koton Karfi, Mopa Muro, Ajaokuta, and Olamaboro.
Mr Wada won in Omala, Igalamela, Yagba East, Yagba West, Idah, Dekina, Bassa, Ofu, and Ankpa local government areas.
In this year's election, the APC candidate won one more LGA to take his total to 13, while the SDP candidate, who replaced the PDP candidate as the second horse in the race, won in only his home district.
While the outcomes of the two polls were controversial, the bizarre numbers from two LGAs that almost determined the winner made the 11 November poll even more so.
Qosim Suleiman is a reporter at Premium Times in partnership with Report for the World, which matches local newsrooms with talented emerging journalists to report on under-covered issues around the globe
