In the Sahel, while old security perils remain and keep spreading, at the same time, new destabilizing threats emerge and are extending. Focus of real international concerns, not long ago, these perils are now marginalized by the war in Ukraine and Sudan creeping collapse. With the resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they now find themselves off the media headlines and the concerns of the major decision-makers and other influencers.
Almost left on its own, with all subsequent risks of amplification and perpetuation, the Sahel, an explosive Pandora's Box, shouldn't remain forever marginalized.
Marginalization of citizens and causes of conflicts.
Beyond often underestimated ideological demands and imitation effects, the real causes of terrorism in the Sahel should no longer be ignored. First, there is the public religious or political claim and often intended more as an ideological cover than a reality. Second, in the Sahel, as elsewhere, terrorism can also result from a contamination linked to an inter-ethnic war in a neighboring state with similar human or political problems.
However, the real causes of armed violence in the Sahel are difficult to dissociate from the nature of the countries governance. A management supported by assumed tribalism and regionalism as well as endemic corruption. Worse, an unpunished corruption. In that field, already conducive to social implosions, terrorism benefits from an inexhaustible human base ready for mobilization.
The region has suffered from this situation for more than a decade. Therefore, radicalization is not only religious. It also is a rebellion against the countries continued "retribalization", practiced by leaders under family influence or in need of larger political basis. In Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and indeed in Sudan, this "retribalization" now by guns, is most obvious. Ignored by external partners - due to the « politically correctness » - it is spreading openly and at best imperceptibly, throughout the region.
To young people, many and mostly unemployed (candidates for migration or terrorism), social networks instantly expose the governance weaknesses and flaws. They also offer logistics tools to help demonstrate their mobilization capacities for various causes and combats. Civilian and military authorities find themselves seriously questioned everywhere. That is a tragedy as indeed there will be no lasting peace without modern leadership and efficient governance.
Challenged interstate governance and cooperation.
Openly, or not, for more than a decade, Sahelian governments, civil or military, have been frequently challenged. They are confronted, from within and in public opinions, more on household or tribal issues than on overall political orientations. They also are disavowed and fought more dangerously by armed rebellions. In the Sahel, organized and violent terrorism is now the deadliest form of those structural dissents.
Increasingly fractured states - along regional or tribal lines - offer favorable grounds to civil protests and armed rebellions. Often vilified, due to tribalism and corruption, those states could nevertheless strengthen their effectiveness in terms of their citizen security.
Without necessarily intending it, these governances, through self-interested political choices, fuel in particular various illicit trafficking and organized migrations. Choices that generate civil wars or, at least, prepare favorable grounds to them. Specifically, searching for new perspectives is essential. The objective is to identify policies that can address the root causes of protests before they become structural and lasting, such as those now prevailing for decades in Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan.
To be able to manage, but first of all, to prevent these conflicts, Sahel governances must be "renationalized" through practices that integrate the various minorities and combat corruption. Confronted to citizens, increasingly connected to social networks - therefore informed, or worse, manipulated - the authorities should better manage the multiple fractures dividing their societies. Ending governance that maintains social divisions and integrating ethnically or geographically marginalized populations remains a strong factor of stability.
To these already deeply rooted perils, national and regional solutions can be found. Starting with the fight to end endemic corruption. More than a moral objective, ending impunity in this area remains a determining factor to governments internal and external credibility and therefore to peace. That credibility should reinforce at internal and external level the elaboration of environment policies as well as better management of cities and in particular the capitals. Moreover, the fast growing and uncontrolled urbanization of these capitals is a factor appealing to terrorism.
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In fine, linked to countries governance, terrorism is, however, not a fatality. The Centre4s, like others organizations, including Promeditation, believes in the future of a Sahel Sahara at peace with itself and prosperous. Facing old and new perils, its pathway to success lies in inclusive governance, transparency and openness to the world.
NB Following Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced this Saturday, 2 December their withdrawal from the G 5 Sahel organization. We should come back on that question.
Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, President centre4s.org
