Although many of the adopted text languages leave room for different interpretations, the UAE Consensus forged in Dubai could serve as a path to limiting global emissions significantly within the next decade.
In what has been described as the "beginning of the end to fossil fuel era" globally, world leaders on 13 December adopted the "UAE Consensus", which among several ambitious targets, stipulated the need to transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system.
This is against the backdrop of the ongoing efforts to keep the global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius by mid-century in line with the Paris Agreement.
The new historic climate deal came to fruition after two weeks of extensive deliberations and negotiations among parties, delegations and world leaders, who had converged on Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, for the 28th edition of the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28), to rewrite the narrative of climate action.
COP28 was scheduled for 30 November to 12 December, but it was stretched to 13 December amidst concerns over language calling for a "phase-out/phase-down of fossil fuel" and other weak emphasis highlighted in the negotiation text before an agreement was reached among the parties.
The wordings (phase-out/phase-down) were perceived as a "red line" by oil-dependent countries like Saudi Arabia and Nigeria. It was eventually struck out from the final text and replaced with a call for parties to "transition away" from fossil fuels in energy systems, accelerate coal phase-out, triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030, to achieve net zero emissions in energy by mid-century.
Although some of the adopted wordings leave room for different interpretations, the UAE Consensus forged in Dubai could serve as a path to limiting global emissions significantly within the next decade. But like all previous UN climate deals, there seems to be no enforcement mechanism within the latest deal adopted in Dubai.
While the primary aim of this year's COP and previous ones is to advance the implementation of the Paris Agreement and ramp up action towards keeping the global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the summit threw up some concerns.
This began with the emergence of Sultan Al-Jaber, the chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, as the meeting's president. In the midst of this, Mr Al-Jaber, at several sessions of the conference, reassured the delegations of his commitment to a fair process.
Nevertheless, the concerns lingered until the eleventh hour of the negotiation, casting doubt on the genuineness of the latest UN climate deal, with many climate activists/observers suggesting the COP28 episode and pledges were stage-managed to quell the "say-no-to-fossil-fuels" and "don't-gas-Africa" agitators.
Upon the announcement of the UAE Consensus by Mr Al-Jaber at the closing plenary on 13 December, spontaneous applause erupted from the delegates' side of the plenary with ovations and welcoming smiles from top dignitaries from high-income countries. However, countries under the block of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) were not as satisfied.
But there seems to be a unanimous relief that for the first time in nearly three decades ago, the need to abandon fossil fuels became a pivotal part of the famous Climate Summit in Dubai (COP28).
'The UAE Consensus'
Among the several commitments captured in the adopted "UAE Consensus" is the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C pathways and calls on parties to commit to more robust and actionable climate action in their next round of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) document to be submitted to the UNFCCC.
Aside from the unprecedented reference to transitioning away from all fossil fuels to enable the world to reach net zero by 2050, the new deal is perceived as a significant step forward in the expectations for the next round of NDCs by encouraging "economy-wide emission reduction targets."
It is also meant to help build momentum behind the financial architecture reform agenda, recognising the role of credit rating agencies for the first time and calling for a scale-up of concessional and grant finance.
It reflects the need for a new, specific target to triple renewables and double energy efficiency by 2030 as well as recognising the need to significantly scale up adaptation finance to meet urgent and evolving needs.
Outside the Global Stocktake, the first major win recorded at COP28 was the adoption of the agenda to operationalise a Loss and Damage fund. This pushed high-income countries to announce several funding commitments to the fund in solidarity with climate-vulnerable countries, particularly in Africa and small island nations.
During the COP negotiations, the official tally indicated that the fund had secured about $792 million of early pledges, providing a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), and institutionalising the role of the Youth Climate Champion to mainstream youth inclusion in the future COPs.
Beyond the negotiated text, the COP28 presidency hinted that about $85 billion in funding pledges were mobilised through its 'Action Agenda' initiative which spans four pillars: fast-tracking a just and orderly energy transition; fixing climate finance to make it more available, affordable, and accessible; focusing on people, nature, lives and livelihoods; and fostering full inclusivity in climate action.
"Under the total Action Agenda at COP28, over $85 billion in funding has been mobilised and 11 pledges and declarations have been launched and received historic support," COP28 organisers said.
Other major achievements at COP28
Apart from the negotiated text adopted by all 198 parties at COP28, other achievements of the summit include the launch of ALTÉRRA, the UAE's $30 billion catalytic private finance vehicle, which seeks to mobilise a total of $250 billion for global climate action.
The summit also achieved the 'COP28 UAE Declaration on Agriculture, Food, & Climate,' embedding sustainable agriculture and food systems in the response to climate change. It has received endorsements from 158 countries.
It was also able to resolve the 'COP28 UAE Declaration on Climate and Health,' meant to accelerate the development of climate-resilient, sustainable and equitable health systems. It has been endorsed by 144 countries.
Another of its successes is the Global Decarbonisation Accelerator (GDA) - a series of landmark energy initiatives across the public and private sectors to speed up the energy transition, and more.
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"The COP28 presidency has been clear in its intention to ensure that the agreements made at COP28 are delivered and followed through to COP29 and COP30, with mechanisms to track progress against implementation," the text read in part.
Main concerns of developing countries
However, small Island countries lamented that the final Global Stocktake (or outcomes) failed to agree to a phase-out of fossil fuel production and consumption and to establish the necessary funds for a just and equitable clean energy transition.
Mentions of tripling renewable energies are encouraging but not comprehensive, especially for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), if it is understood only as a sheer change of energy sources without a deeper reflection on shifting the energy system worldwide.
"For changes to be significant they must be integral and systemic: decentralisation, generation based on local sources, access to energy and the prevention of energy poverty are key factors in leading a transition that is fair," a statement by the group said.
They explained further that non-industrialised countries, including those in LAC, need $400 billion per year in this decade just to implement the necessary adaptation actions.
Climate justice advocates have also pointed out that funding for adaptation must be sufficient, predictable and equitable, and that the lingering scourge of climate change is a matter of life and death for countries most vulnerable to the climate crisis.
This story was produced with support from the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID)
