The SA Human Rights Commission's inconclusive findings about the 2021 KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng riots should serve as a warning about the potential for more violence in the upcoming elections. The fact that former president Jacob Zuma is campaigning for a new party may increase the chance of such incidents occurring. However, there are still factors that mitigate against the use of public violence as a political tool.

The finding of the SA Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) that there was insufficient evidence to link the jailing of former president Jacob Zuma in July 2021 with the violence that followed immediately afterwards is likely to be hotly debated in the coming days.

The finding flies in the face of claims by Zuma himself.

In April 2022, at an application related to his corruption trial, Zuma's lawyers argued that the riots were "partly motivated or sparked, to whatever extent, by a sense of public outrage at perceived injustice and special treatment of Mr Zuma".

The SAHRC rightfully pointed out, however, that while the violence was "well-resourced" and the police and security services largely failed to prevent and contain it, there has been virtually no accountability for what happened.

As was clear at the time, holding those responsible accountable was always unlikely. They are still free today.

Zuma's decision to campaign against the ANC may well raise fears of a recurrence of public violence.

Certainly, some senior leaders are concerned about this.

Last week, water and sanitation minister Senzo Mchunu said he was worried about security during the election. His concern is the new party supported by...