2024 has been dubbed the 'year of elections', with several elections taking place not only in Africa but around the world. Disinformation is a fundamental concern in elections, identified as the major risk facing global societies by the World Economic Forum due to deepening polarisation, increasing the risk of conflict.

In anticipation of the South African elections (now set for 29 May 2024, Political parties began campaigning last year. Several new political parties are aiming to capitalise on the declining support for the African National Congress (ANC), with recent polls showing that it's expected to see support drop below 50%. The significance of the country likely entering an era of coalition government at a national level for the first time is heightened by it also marking the 30th anniversary of the first democratic elections.

The media will play a pivotal role in voters making informed decisions, and for the political process to be based on robust, inclusive, and participatory political debate.  The media will act as a watchdog by fact-checking politicians' claims, investigating their track records, and analysing their manifestos but it will also be competing with the plethora of opinions, attacks, and criticisms disseminated on social media.

The political landscape in South Africa continues to be shaped by race, ethnicity, and socio-economic position, rendering our communication environment vulnerable to exploitation by disinformation campaigns and international influence operations. A prime example of this was the infamous #whitemonopolycapital campaign conducted to deflect attention away from corruption allegations against former president Jacob Zuma.  The campaign  used an array of disinformation tactics to spread a polarizing narrative accusing white South Africans of monopolizing resources to entrench apartheid's legacy of poverty and deprivation among black counterparts.

Foreign influence operations may seek to use domestic political differences on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Palestine war to promote foreign soft power objectives in the South African media space. These are likely to include sophisticated information strategies by State and non-State actors to influence the outcome of the election in favour of their geopolitical interests, such as promoting polarizing narratives, seeding conspiracy theories, or outright disinformation. It has been speculated that 'unofficial' influence operatives backed by Russia, Israel, China, and the US could be active during these elections. Politicians are also likely to exploit tensions for their own benefit and the level of acceptability of xenophobia in political campaigning is a concern. The supposed 'problem' posed by foreign nationals is already a dangerous precedent of the type of inflammatory political rhetoric we are likely to see in the information sphere.

But just how ready is the South African media to counter disinformation and ensure the integrity of the political communication space?

Amid a grave financial crisis, with extensive job losses for journalists and desperate news publishers seeking out new sources of funding, business models, and partnership deals, questions could be raised about the adequacy of South African news media's resources to take on a multipronged disinformation onslaught from State and non-State actors.

However, three important, positive initiatives stand out: 

o   Firstly, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has again partnered with Big Tech companies Google, Meta, and TikTok, and civil society organisation Media Monitoring Africa (MMA) to fight disinformation in the upcoming elections.

o   Secondly, several media outlets, supported by the Google News Initiative and led by Africa Check, have formed a "fact-checking coalition" to combat misinformation ahead of the South African elections.

o   Thirdly, the South African National Editors Forum (Sanef) and MMA have launched an initiative to protect the integrity of the elections, and particularly what social media companies should do to mitigate disinformation and other online election risks.

There is a lot at stake for the credibility of South Africa's media industry. South Africa was ranked by World Press Freedom ranking as one of the freest media environments in the world, despite growing verbal attacks by politicians and activists. For the country to maintain this position, public media's South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) News needs to provide independent, balanced, and credible coverage of the 2024 elections, as it did in the 2019 and 2021 elections (according to MMA). Most importantly, the SABC has a special responsibility to provide a defense against disinformation and avoid amplifying any false information and misleading narratives.

The elections will therefore be a strong litmus test for the 10-month-old SABC board and its new CEO. However,  they have already demonstrated their ability to protect SABC News from political interference by taking quick action to remove a Board member as head of the News and Editorial Committee who had allegedly attempted to interfere with news coverage.

Some specific issues to look out for in the media's coverage of the South African elections:

o   The major geopolitical conflicts raging around the world, particularly those between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Palestine, will largely be viewed,  through a domestic lens. This means that election candidates are likely to seek to gain political capital by proclaiming the correctness of their position vis-a-vis these conflicts and criticising the position of their opponents, including that of the government. Foreign influence operations may seek to use these geopolitical tensions to promote soft power objectives of the various international players within the South African media space.

o   Another concern is the rapid rise of artificial intelligence such as ChatGPT, which may be used to support astroturfing, bot accounts on social media, or 'deepfake' images which may be used to impersonate politicians. Although these technologies have the potential to disrupt the South African elections, other online threats such as the targeting of journalists (through doxxing or online gender-based violence) and smear campaigns against politicians are more likely to pose a risk to the integrity of elections.

In conclusion, the media space, both the mainstream news and online social media, is likely to be a contested, fractious, and polarised arena as we enter the election period. Given that these contestations will play out in the broader online media space, there is a strong need for Big Tech platforms to take a vigilant and accountable role. The integrity of the elections, the soundness of political debate, and the maturity of our democracy itself will largely depend on the quality, robustness, and ethical commitment of our media.

Herman Wasserman is Professor of Journalism and Chair of the Department of Journalism at Stellenbosch University

Michael Markovitz is head of the GIBS Media Leadership Think Tank at the Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), University of Pretoria