Cash scarcity reduces demand for some basic commodities; transporters bring less; prices escalate on account of reduced supply and demand plummets even further - ad infinitum
"Love and business and family and religion and art and patriotism are nothing but shadows of words when a man is starving" - O'Henry, 1862-1910.
Sometime ago, your Vice President called Nigerians, who registered their displeasure about the continuing devaluation of the Naira, "clowns" for not supporting the government now when things are tough. Shettima has forgotten that he begged for the job. If he can't stand the heat, he should resign. But, he cannot be insulting his employers. He was joined by one Felix Morka, the National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who apparently has no relatives, friend or town's men feeling the pain of hunger. The two, like all the "Yes-men and women" of your administration, are leading your government down the path which destroyed Buhari and others before you.
Every President sooner or later becomes a prisoner of his Aso Rock staff. They shield you from the harsh truth of human existence. Invite Buhari and Jonathan and ask them if there were truths they wished were brought to their attention while in office; and you will be surprised what the answers will be. For instance, it is doubtful if Buhari would have condoned the scam involved in feeding school children, with N53 billion, during COVID-19 lockdown. The report submitted to him would have been made deliberately misleading for the embezzlement to escape his attention. Grand larceny would have been reported as a wonderful achievement by his government. You already run the same risk. Here is why.
On December 30, 2023, in our SATURDAY VANGUARD, I got an article published titled NIGERIA 2024: SLIDING FURTHER INTO CHAOS. I summarised the year as follows: "2024 in Nigeria will be characterised by three words - scarcity, failure and chaos." Scarcity of cash and foreign exchange now lead the parade of other scarcities. Go to any market - open market for the masses or supermarkets for the rich - and you will be surprised how scarce items we once took for granted have become. Scarcity inevitably promotes price increase; and the less the supply, the higher prices go up. That is why food inflation is now over 30 per cent and will most probably go higher rather than lower. Granted, you have recently instructed that 100,000 tonnes of food be released from the Nation's Food Reserves to ease the pressure on prices. But, I am afraid that gesture will not solve the problem of food scarcity for reasons which might have escaped your attention. Let me remind you.
WE'LL OPEN RESERVES TO ADDRESS FOOD COSTS - FG
"Now some of these will involve unlocking the foods that are available in most of the storage facilities (National Food Reserve) around the country. You know the Ministry of Agriculture has some food reserves. They are going to be made available to Nigerians" - Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information and Orientation, after a meeting of the Special Presidential Committee in Emergency Food Intervention, February 8, 2024. From my experience of over thirty years, one of the most pathetic things observed has been how relatively respectable media persons get appointed as government spokesmen; and they lose their reputations. It is almost impossible for anybody to be in that position, in times of serious crisis, without purveying falsehood in order to stay employed in high office.
Idris, therefore, has my sympathies. But, that is all he would receive from me. To be candid, his pronouncement is pure drivel. A day later, the nation was told that Tinubu has ordered the release of 100, 000 tonnes of assorted food items - rice, wheat, cassava, maize. Politely, I will describe that intervention as pissing in the ocean at low tide. That quantity of food cannot feed Lagos State for a month. Then what follows? I will explain later why the 100, 000 tonnes of grain ordered released is more political swindle than solution to the food scarcity problem. To be honest, this government needs to become more serious before Nigeria goes the way of Sudan.
Perhaps the FG needs to be reminded that the palliatives offered in the third quarter of last year by the National Economic Council, NEC, included releasing food from the National Reserves to the states. Till today, most states have not received the supplies promised. From where will the FG obtain the additional 100, 000 tonnes to be released? I pity Idris; I pity Tinubu even more. It took most of us about two years before realising that Buhari was a veritable danger to Nigeria; that he was unreliable. Because Tinubu is a minority President, there has been no honeymoon; and he got himself into trouble by frequently talking first and thinking later. This measure will get us nowhere.
FAILED PROMISES GALORE
Politicians' promises almost always count for very little under normal circumstances. In a crisis, they count for nothing. Thus, when Tinubu announced simultaneously subsidy removal and exchange rate harmonisation, without consideration of the repercussions, it was an invitation to monumental economic and social crises for which his government and Nigerians were not prepared. Negative reactions spontaneously erupted. Panic set in. The National Economic Council, NEC, which should have been consulted before the announcement, was summoned to help find solutions. Palliatives were rolled out.
Among them were the release of grains from the National Food Reserves, reduction of the exchange rate below N1000/$1, payment of N35,000 allowance to workers, fuel supply from Dangote and Port-Harcourt Refineries and the roll-out of gas operated busses. Till today, none of the major promises have been fulfilled. It has been failure all around. Failure of the FG to redeem its pledges are among the reasons why the Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC, and other affiliates are now threatening to embark on a nationwide strike and why food protests are multiplying. I am not surprised about these developments.
Nigerians were warned before that the Tinubu government would have very little to offer us this year; that scarcity of a lot of things is inevitable. Has the reader noticed how the CBN and FG have ignored the cash scarcity problem? It is because they have no clue on how to solve the problem. Yet, not finding a solution to it has condemned millions of mini-enterprises to liquidation; and millions, previously employed to joblessness. Unknown to Tinubu, a spiral of misery has gradually developed. Cash scarcity reduces demand for some basic commodities; transporters bring less; prices escalate on account of reduced supply and demand plummets even further - ad infinitum. The logical consequences are already unfolding.
Chaos of governance
"The chaos keeps on getting worse in spite of everything they do to improve discipline and morale" - Boris Pasternak, 1890-1960, in DOCTOR ZHIVAGO
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Pasternak's classic about the Russian Revolution taught us a lot about how chaotic revolutionary changes can be - if not well-managed. The book, by that title, which eventually became an award-winning film, was mostly responsible for Pasternak winning the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1958. Tinubu might be well-advised to get that film to be shown at a retreat for his Ministers, advisers and 'Lagos Boys'. Tinubu might not realise it, but, those two primary policy changes - subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalisation - were as revolutionary as some aspects of the Communist Revolution in Russia in 1905.
Together, they effectively removed the advantages enjoyed by those who lived on Nigeria's illness. They threatened the current powerful; who routinely collected billions of dollars at favourable exchange rates; sold them at black market rates and re-cycled the proceeds. Believe me; they will not surrender power easily. Partisan politics, ethnicity and religion have very little to do with it. It is group interest that is at stake. The political class is one group.
That was why members of the National Assembly, NASS, support the extra-ordinary remuneration package they receive - irrespective of party to which they belong. For instance, most of them were enjoying special exchange rates under Buhari; so they had no reason to press for unified exchange rate. The mega economic class is another group. If the original report of the Special Investigator is ever released for public scrutiny, Nigerians will discover that the same people manipulating prices at the Nigerian Stock Exchange are the suspects under interrogation. This is not the time to name anyone.
Unfortunately, pervasive scarcity of cash, dollars and food are driving the masses to the streets. Governors are panicking and taking the law into their hands.
