President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will mark his first anniversary in power in the next three weeks, but there are hardly any concrete achievements made, except for the litany of excuses and rhetoric by his handlers. The reason for the chaotic situation is not far-fetched. Policy decisions were never always well-articulated, thought-out, and their risk analyses thoroughly examined before they were implemented. Due to the lack of clarity in policy objectives and unexpected consequences, government has continued to fight one fire after another, each of them the fall-out of ill-advised policy measures.
Reading the mood of the nation, Vice President Kashim Shettima, last week at an event, appealed to Nigerians to be patient with the federal government, as the positive dividend of the harsh policies may soon be ripe for harvest. He said, "We look forward to the positive impact on the economy that will be brought by some of our new initiatives in the oil and gas sector, creative arts sector, the newly rejigged steel and solid minerals sectors, our housing sector, the blue economy, and the digital sectors, to mention but a few. There is no doubt that there's a time to plant and a time to reap. In between those times, we appeal for patience and seek collective sacrifice from all, especially from us. We wish there were a way to treat this ailment without surgery."
For each of the policies the vice-president referred to, there is no timeline about when the fruits of the measures would be realised. In many societies, decisions are accompanied by timelines and projections of outcomes. But here, it is not so. For example, it will take a long time before Nigerians will overcome the hardships that they pass through as a result of the two major policies of this government - the removal of fuel subsidy and the devaluation of the Naira. The decisions were not accompanied by realistic measures to cushion their effect, an indication that government did not envisage their catastrophic implications. Even without any serious research, those who push through these difficult policies ought to have envisaged the current predicaments Nigerians face and should have put in place and instantly activated activities to ameliorate them. Also, the framers of the policies failed to realise that the devaluation of the Naira would have damaging consequences on fuel import to the extent that the savings from subsidy removal would be neutralised. As it is now self-evident, the current scarcity of petrol across the country and the hike in its prices prove that the Tinubu government did not look before it leaped and dumped Nigeria in this mess.
The decision of government to embark on a big project, like the N15 trillion coastal road from Lagos to Calabar, has come under heavy criticism for several reasons. First, it is not clear if the procurement process for the project was followed and if the project was awarded after a competitive bidding exercise. Again, at a press conference last week, the Minister of Works, Dave Umahi, was thrown off-balance when a reporter asked to see the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) document of the project. No doubt, an organised government cannot embark on such a project without a thorough and comprehensive impact assessment being conducted for clear evidence that every aspect of the project would be under control. At the press conference, the minister talked about an interim clearance, but not the final one, yet the government has demonstrated a lot of excitement and haste to embark on the coastal road project. This does not speak well of the administration.
There are several other activities being carried out by the rule of thumb. The government promised to make available Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles to ease transportation, but weeks before its first anniversary in power, it is still promising to make available 2,700 vehicles by May 29. It is clear that even as at the time the president made the promise last year, there was no roadmap to make the CNG vehicles available for Nigerians. If the 2,700 CNG buses are rolled out at the end of this month, it will actually be like a drop in an ocean, considering the transportation needs of Nigerians in urban centres. Also, the idea of increasing the electricity tariff was not indigenous; it was lifted from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescriptions to reduce government spending in order to meet its debt obligations. In reality, if this government had a committed team that would take a critical look and strike out the frivolous projects in the 2024 budget, it could save a lot of funds that could be redirected to debt servicing.
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Issues such as the Act establishing the students loan that had to be returned to the National Assembly for amendments, the palliatives marred in corruption, living wage that is not being seriously negotiated, funds to rejuvenate agriculture that are not being released, and even the lack of clear strategy to tackle insecurity, all show that not much groundwork is being done by this government before policy statements are made. Nigerians expect the Tinubu government to create a vibrant economy where industries will thrive and mop up the unemployed population. It is not clear if there is a strategy to do so, apart from the chance deals being sealed in principle with some companies, for establishing industries in Nigeria. This government must return to the drawing board to take deep and critical look at socio-economic policies before announcing them.
