After Mali in September 2021, Burkina Faso in October 2022, Niger in March 2023, the Russian paramilitary company, Wagner, landed in Chad this April 2024. Of the five member countries of the G5 Sahel, only Mauritania has not yet succumbed to the offer of security services wrapped in the name of the famous German musician. In the first three countries, members of the Alliance of Sahel States, Wagner has supplanted the French military. In Mali, precisely, Russians have also taken the place of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA), which has left at the end of 2023 at Bamako request. In Chad, the Russian firm coexists with French and American military bases. That Wagner take over - increasingly renamed Africa Corps - of four of the G5 Sahel countries, announces the beginning of a "new geopolitical configuration".
Russia has been comfortable in the Sahel since 2021. It asked for nothing, but gets everything from its new allies, all from military regimes. It was they who invited her, to counter the influence of the former colonial power, France, and to also escape from the governance rulings of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To these new regimes, Russia constitutes a sort of life insurance. The Wagner group began its activities in Mali at the end of 2021, when the Malian military junta broke off relations with its Western partners, following the double coup d'état of August 18, 2020, and 24 May 2021.
In June 2021, France decided then to reduce its military presence in Mali and to put an end to joint operations with Malian forces. In early 2022, tensions with that country's Western partners worsened after ECOWAS imposed new sanctions on it. Bamako responded to these measures by refusing international forces access to its airspace, and by expelling, on January 24, Danish troops and then the French ambassador to Mali on January 31. On Thursday February 17, 2022, France, its European partners and Canada confirmed their withdrawal from Mali anti-jihadist military operations - Barkhane and Takuba - due to the deterioration of relations with the junta in Bamako. On August 15, 2022, control of Gao, the last French military base in the country, was transferred to the Malian army. Most of the troops and the heavy logistics were relocated to Niger, partially via Burkina Faso, with incidents occurring on the road caused by hostile Burkinabè and Nigerien demonstrators.
Burkina Faso: change of strategic partnership.
Burkina has demonstrated its desire to change its strategic partnership, as soon as Captain Ibrahim Traoré known as "IB" took power. Reasons given: frustrations arising from cooperation with Paris, therefore a desire to diversify the partnership in the search for greater efficiency in the fight against terrorism. At the beginning of October 2022, the United States, already sensing things coming, warned Captain Ibrahim Traoré regime against the risks of an alliance with Russia, whose paramilitary group Wagner has shown frank support for the authors of the latest coup d'état. "Countries where the (Wagner) group has been deployed are finding themselves weakened and less secure, and we have seen that in several cases in Africa alone," a spokesperson, Vedant Patel, for the US State Department told reporters. He clarified his thoughts, as follows: "We condemn any attempt to worsen the current situation in Burkina Faso, and we strongly encourage the new transitional government to comply with the agreed timetable for a return to democratically elected civilian. As a result of such development, the Burkinabe army general staff announced, Sunday February 19, 2023, the end of the operations of the Saber special force in Burkina Faso, composed of 300 to 400 soldiers.
Ghana was one of the first African countries to spill the beans on Russia, attracting the wrath of Ouagadougou. Ghanaian President Nana, Akufo-Ado, on the sidelines of the United States - Africa summit in Washington, mid-December 2022, was worried about seeing "Russian mercenaries deployed in his northern neighbor". A few days earlier, it was confirmed that the Burkinabé Prime Minister discreetly left Ouagadougou, on a Malian army flight, for Bamako, from where he flew to Moscow, on December 7, 2022. The VPR role of the Mali was crucial in establishing links between the Russian firm and the Burkina Faso authorities fresh from the September 2022 coup.
As for Niger, even if the first discreet and unofficial contacts with Wagner dates back from the time of the deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, the noisy dismissal of French soldiers and the brutal dismissal of their American colleagues are a punishment for « inappropriate attitudes » after the coup d'état of July 26, 2023. France has called on the military authorities to release and then reinstate Mohamed Bazoum in his role as elected President of the Republic of Niger. It even encouraged ECOWAS to do that through military intervention in Niger. In response, French soldiers in that country were sequestered, booed during "popular demonstrations", then deprived of food before Paris agreed to announce the evacuation of its 1,500 soldiers on December 12, 2023, and to close its embassy on December 20, 2023. France also repatriated 577 of its nationals living in the country. On the evening of August 3, 2023, Niger denounced the military agreements signed with France. These agreements were about the stationing of troops, the status of military personnel as well as intelligence.
The United States: hesitant towards the Nigerien junta.
As for the United States, they deferred their decision for a long time before recognizing and condemning the July 26, 2023 coup d'état, in view of the "bullying" inflicted by the junta on French soldiers and diplomats. It was only on September 20, 2023 that they announced that they had exhausted all means of preserving constitutional order in Niger, and therefore declared that the Nigerien army had carried out a coup d'état. Immediately, they took two energetic measures, which displeased the junta: the elimination of 500 million dollars in aid and military cooperation. In this, they have applied an American law requiring that the official designation of a coup entails the suspension of aid, in accordance with section 7008 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA). On the threat of military intervention by ECOWAS, American positions appeared, in the eyes of the junta, to lack clarity.
Since 2012, Niger has been the US military aid largest recipient in West Africa and the second largest in the whole sub-Saharan Africa. Revenge being a dish best served cold, Niger new authorities announced, on March 16, 2024, the severance of military cooperation with the United States, and demanded the immediate withdrawal of troops from their country. The US have several military bases in Niger: base 201, in Agadez then air base 101, located near Hamani Diori international airport, in Niamey, and that of Dirkou, built in the Agadez region and invested by the Central Intelligence Agency, CIA. One thousand American soldiers are in Niger. The Agadez base, where Reaper drones and C 17 transport planes are stationed, has reached a cost of $280 million in 2024. Only that of Djibouti exceeds it in scale. Given the cost related to closing that base, the US negotiated hard for more time and thus it was agreed to close it in September 14, 2024. And as the US were slow to leave, they saw the arrival of one hundred elements of Wagner on April 10 2024. On May 4, new Russian "instructors" landed in Niamey, aboard a "humanitarian cargo ship", to unload food and basic necessities in front of the walls of that base where the American army is still stationed. In Niamey, Wagner's elements began to settle on the same base as the Americans, according to the well-calculated plans of the Nigerien military authorities. A very strange cohabitation that the US Secretary of State for Defense has difficulty talking about. In fact, on May 3, Lloyd Austin recognized this "unusual co-location," playing it down: "the Russians are in a separate building and do not have access to the American forces" nor to its "equipment". He added that "the Russian deployment did not pose a significant problem [...] in terms of protecting our forces".
Wagner's bill.
According to the US State Department, the Malian government pays US$ 10 million per month for Wagner's services. Other sources estimate that the amount is larger, arguing that the junta has paid, from 2021 to now, up to $200 million to Wagner, not including mining concessions granted to the group. In Burkina Faso, around a hundred Wagner fighters arrived in January 2024 for unofficially mentioned 3,000 Euros monthly salaries. Burkina hopes that these numbers will increase, as in Mali. Their mission is to secure the regime of Captain Ibrahim Traoré, to combat violent extremism and to train Burkinabè soldiers. There is also talk of a base being built for them in the suburbs of Ouagadougou. Mining concessions are also on the table. (see Website: www.southernhub.org X: NSD-S Hub LinkedIn: NSD-S Hub JFCNP (Naples, Italy).
Chad: last French bastion in the Sahel.
After the French troops forced departure from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, Chad remains their last stronghold in the Sahel. France currently has more than a thousand men there, within the three bases of Faya-Largeau (in the north), Abéché (in the east) and air base 172 in N'Djamena. Seen from Chad, the Russians are in Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic and Niger. They have strengthened their position in Libya, and have also signed military cooperation agreements with Nigeria and Cameroon. In addition, very strong ties exist between the Chadian and Nigerien armies, promoting affinities between Chad and Russia. Suffice it to say that President Mahamat Deby Itno was surrounded by partners from Moscow. His use of Wagner is a matter of realism. During a visit to Moscow on January 24, 2024, at the invitation of Vladimir Putin, he discussed bilateral cooperation, including military cooperation. This is how on the morning of April 28, 2024, 130 Wagner fighters landed in N'Djamena on a discreet Ethiopian Airlines flight. It is not excluded that President Mahamat also sought to secure his imminent victory in the elections which would take place 10 days later.
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Russia, in this case, would have offered him life insurance, for himself and for his regime. Thus, Russia has strengthened its presence in Chad, particularly in the mining sector where it already excels in Burkina Faso, Mali and elsewhere. Contracts for armaments and maintenance of complex military equipment have been awarded to a Russian company, whereas, before it, a Ukrainian firm was in charge. Russian political scientist Maksim Shugaley, well known in certain African capitals, actively participated in General Déby's electoral campaign. Russia sent its sincere congratulations to Chad on its electoral success. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that these elections were the final stage of the transition process to normal constitutional life. Several agreements have also been signed recently with higher institutions in Russia, and the University of N'Djamena will develop active cooperation with its counterparts.
The sky protection aspect of the four regimes is symbolized by the supply and installation of "latest generation anti-aircraft systems". Only Niger, during a recent inspection tour by the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, General Moussa Salaou Barmou, trained partly in the United States, admitted having acquired, in addition, missiles and Russian drones, always of the latest generation...
