Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, enunciated "the Tinubu 4D doctrine," which is "anchored on democracy, developments, demography and diaspora."
On 29 May 2023, President Bola Tinubu came into office saying his primary foreign policy objective is to promote the best possible outcomes for Nigeria in all engagements with other nations and restore peace and stability in the West African sub-region and the African continent.
In his inaugural speech, Mr Tinubu promised to retool Nigeria's foreign policy to more actively lead the regional and continental quest for collective prosperity. Under successive governments, Nigeria's foreign policy has more often than not been "crafted in thrusts" with broad frameworks defining the direction in which Nigeria desires to engage with other actors in the global system.
But to put some order into Nigeria's foreign policy under President Tinubu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, enunciated last December what he described as "the Tinubu 4D doctrine," which is "anchored on democracy, developments, demography and diaspora"; implying that the focus of President Tinubu's foreign policy would be on these four elements.
Before December, the minister had spoken about the 4D at the G-20 meeting in India in August and the 78th UN General Assembly in September.
Concerning democracy, according to the minister, Nigeria would seek to "consolidate democratic gains made since the return to civil rule in 1999"; and "continue to encourage this, both in Africa and the world." He said the unconstitutional change of government "calls for proactive diplomacy in order to reverse the trend and restore peace."
On development, it is planned that foreign policy would, first, be directed at "working to enhance Nigerian and African development in order to halt the circle of dependency which is against the interest of Africa ... (and) exploit the opportunities presented by the Africa Continental Free Trade Area to facilitate the exchange of goods and services and boost trade and investment through economic cooperation."
Referencing the "vibrant talent and skills that (Nigeria's) young population possesses," the minister indicated under demography that the country's foreign policy would be directed at using this "demographic advantage to harness its human capital resources for development."
On Diaspora, the minister said the Tinubu administration believes that the "Nigerian Diaspora community plays a major role in the development of the country," especially concerning their remittances, which "had become a significant contributor to Nigeria's economic growth and development." The Diaspora community is thus expected to "continue to be a catalyst for Nigeria's imaging and a veritable source of direct investment."
While the minister has not missed an opportunity to speak on how the administration wants to relate with the rest of the world, there is still no clarity on Nigeria's positions on critical global issues under the administration.
Experts also believe the 4D doctrine of Mr Tinubu appeared too broad to harmonise the country's foreign policy aspirations with its realistic domestic power capability.
"Defining the thrust of Nigeria's foreign policy soon after the new Tinubu government came into office was appropriate," said Femi Mimiko, a professor and foreign policy expert. "Yet, as they currently stand, the four elements of democracy, development, demography and diaspora are rather too fluid in conception, too broad in scope, and too woolly in objective, thus making the entire 4D framework of little use in fathoming the exact direction of Nigeria's foreign policy."
Can Nigeria advance democracy in Africa and the world?
To begin with, Africa has experienced seven military coups since August 2020. Experts said among others, the reason for this may not be unconnected to democracy's failure on the continent to deliver on the promise of inclusivity, stability and development.
However, the approximate mainstream thought is the assumption that democracy is wholly desirable as a pathway to good governance, stability, and development on the African continent. President Tinubu reiterated this on 9 July 2023, when he was elected as President of ECOWAS. While democracy may be 'very tough to manage,' it nevertheless constitutes 'the best form of government,' the president said.
However, less than a month after he emerged as ECOWAS chair, military authorities toppled Mohammed Bazoum's government in the Niger Republic. At first, Nigeria and the ECOWAS gave the junta an ultimatum of 15 days to vacate power, when they refused, a raft of economic sanctions followed. Other countries, including the United States, that had provided aid for health, security and infrastructure needs, also suspended their support.
But they have had little or no impact on the ambition of the junta, which has consolidated its hold on power while millions in Niger face growing hardship. By January, Niger together with Mali and Burkina Faso decided to withdraw their membership of ECOWAS. This decision forced the West African regional bloc to lift most of the sanctions imposed on the three countries.
"As the Niger Republic situation has demonstrated, Nigeria in such circumstances, due to doubtful power capability, as well as profound diplomatic constraints, has little or no choice, other than to play along, hoping that the ruling junta would be agreeable to rapid re-democratisation (the transition back to civil rule)," Mr Mimiko told PREMIUM TIMES.
The brewing crisis in Sudan also buttressed this point. Abuja has not taken any steps to negotiate or assist in bringing back stability in the country. Nigeria is now being advised to take proactive steps on Sudan's crisis because of Nigeria's boundary with Chad. Chad, Sudan's western neighbour, is the country most affected by the ongoing conflict, particularly since Chadian authorities intercepted dozens of vehicles carrying smuggled weapons seized from Sudanese army warehouses in July.
On Nigeria's placement of democracy on its foreign policy, Mr Mimiko noted that: first, there is the need for greater clarity about what exactly Nigeria seeks vis-a-vis the democratic agenda, within and outside its shores. "Secondly, there is the need for Nigeria to set realistic goals in this regard, the parameters of which should be substantially defined by the nation's overall power capability."
As it stands, Nigeria and the Tinubu administration may not have much influence when other African countries come under the rulership of military juntas. It may also have little or no impact in terms of securing stability and welfare on the African continent.
This is why Mr Mimiko thinks the 4Ds' attention to "realism is also rather weak, as it does little in harmonising the country's foreign policy aspirations with its domestic power capability, and with no clear, measurable goals for evaluation purposes."
On the second D, Mr Tinubu's doctrine seeks to enhance Nigeria's and Africa's development, and by so doing "halt the cycle of dependency which is against the interest of Africa," according to Minister Tuggar.
They also hope to "achieve double-digit growth for Nigeria by combining Agriculture, Infrastructure and Industrialisation. Attracting foreign investment in agriculture would help to close the gap between metro and rural areas and a bifurcation that contributes to Nigeria's poor showing on the poverty index."
Mr Mimiko, the foreign policy expert, noted that the most pressing question that arises here is whether it is appropriate, feasible and desirable for Nigeria to drive Africa's, rather than its own narrow development agenda.
Also, he wondered whether Nigeria has any "influence on this process beyond extending diplomatic support - usually of limited consequence - to propositions within and outside the continent that portend positive outcomes for the economies."
The Tinubu administration also hopes that the country's foreign policy would be directed at using Nigeria's demographic advantage to harness its human capital resources for development. Nigeria has a population of over 220 million and the youth accounts for the highest share of that demography.
"But while it is trite that a huge population, when appropriately mobilised, may suggest some potentials for development, this is neither a sufficient condition for nor guarantee of development," Mr Mimiko said.
"Indeed, an inappropriately mobilised (education, skill set, etc.) population could be the very recipe for sundry social crises. At any event, to the extent that what Nigeria seeks to leverage upon here is the "talent and skills that our young population possesses," and not necessarily their youthfulness, methinks what should be in focus here is not age (i.e. demographic), but creativity, which is not (youth) demographic-specific."
Finally, the last D stands for Diaspora. Nigeria has a large and widespread diaspora community, in Europe, America, Africa and the Middle East that plays a major role in the development of the country. Last year, Nigerians abroad remitted $20.1 billion. The Diaspora community is thus expected to "continue to be a catalyst for Nigeria's imaging and a veritable source of direct investment," according to Mr Tuggar.
On this point, Mr Mimiko thinks it is apposite that the country's foreign policy is among other things seeking to reach as many members of this Diaspora as possible, to organise them and sensitise them to the pathways of supporting Nigeria's overall development agenda.
"A condition precedent to all of these, however, which the foreign policy establishment also has to mainstream is, the enhancement of the country's foreign missions to offer effective consular services to Nigerians overseas. This is one veritable route to implanting Nigeria on the minds of the affected communities in the manner which the 4D framework orientation requires to function."
Issues beyond Africa
From the foregoing, experts believe Nigeria needs to review the content of the 4D framework to take note of global issues beyond Africa.
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As argued by Mr Mimiko, as far as these foreign policy directions are concerned, Nigeria is still going to continue to be largely Africa-focused. President Tinubu visited France and pledged a foreign policy shift aimed at reinstating Nigeria's Afro-centric approach, emphasising support for African stability and development.
Advocacy groups have also advised President Tinubu to push for reform of global governance institutions like the IMF and World Bank to accommodate the voices of the Global South.
Nigeria is not a member of the G7 or G20. The country is not a member of BRICS and has not been a member of the UN Security Council since its last tenure in 2014/2015. But President Tinubu also appears to be mulling this idea as Nigeria considers applying to become a member of the G-20 and BRICS bloc.
In an editorial last October, PREMIUM TIMES advised the president on strengthening the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other agencies, such as the Nigeria Institute for International Affairs (NIIA). In the 1970s and through to the 1980s, the NIIA was a major instrument for the formulation of Nigeria's foreign policy and it guided the path that Nigeria should take on international affairs.
"Under Tinubu, Nigeria should also prioritise economic diplomacy to attract foreign investment, promote trade, and diversify its economy," the editorial stated.
The country should be more pragmatic by actively engaging with both its traditional partners (the West) and emerging global economies, such as China, India, and countries in the Middle East, experts said.
While every country, Nigeria inclusive, must condemn big power aggression within the system, Africa's largest democracy should push more for a non-aligned position, and work with other global actors to resolve evolving hostilities.
Importantly, PREMIUM TIMES advised the president in its editorial to promote Nigerian culture, arts, and soft power on the global stage to foster positive perceptions and build cultural connections with other nations. Nollywood, the world's second-largest film industry valued at $6.4 billion in 2021, offers a powerful platform. For instance, a report by Matthew Alford highlights the close relationship between the US government, Hollywood, and the influence of films in Washington DC.
In conclusion, Mr Mimiko called for a review of the 4D framework that should: "First, be moderated in scope; secondly, take cognisance of the country's limited power capability, and shrinking space in the comity of nations; and thirdly, focus pointedly on the most critical issues to Nigeria's overall wellbeing."
