It is customary to take proactive measures against potential future disasters to safeguard ourselves from being overwhelmed by such catastrophes. Regardless of the seemingly slim chances of an anticipated disaster, it is imperative to take serious measures to protect the community or nation. Proactive protective measures are more cost-effective than responding to a disaster after it occurs.
In the realm of AI technology, stakeholders have collectively agreed to refrain from developing autonomous intelligent weapons. However, the issue of AI taking over human jobs has sparked significant controversy within the industry and research community. Proponents argue that AI is poised to transform job roles, create new opportunities, and shorten the time needed to perform complex tasks that traditionally took long periods to accomplish. They believe that AI will enhance productivity and open up new fields of employment. On the other hand, critics contend that AI will inevitably lead to job displacement due to automation.
I align with this perspective, given the substantial evidence of job cuts across various industries worldwide resulting from AI adoption. For instance, tasks that previously required the efforts of 30 people can now be completed by one or two individuals with the help of AI models. To illustrate, consider the example of coding. Coding involves writing instructions to direct computer operations. For example, coding is what makes it possible for you to use WhatsApp.
AI has revolutionised the coding space beyond initial imagination. With the advent of AI-driven coding tools, tasks that used to require extensive human labour can now be executed more efficiently and with fewer resources. Previously, coding was a tedious process that required many programmers to write complex code. However, tasks that once required 20 people can now be completed by one or two individuals in a short period, thanks to AI coding models such as Codex.
Currently, there are many AI models for coding available, both open-source and proprietary. One intriguing feature of these coding models is their ability to convert natural language into computer programs. A programmer can simply describe the requirements of the software they intend to develop in plain English and prompt the AI coding model. The AI then automatically generates the code based on the provided description. The programmer only needs to review the generated code to ensure it meets the expected requirements, as the AI-generated code can sometimes contain errors that require human judgment to fix.
This capability has significantly streamlined the coding process, reducing the need for large teams of programmers and accelerating software development.
The Nigerian agricultural sector is the largest employer of labour in the country, with PwC estimating that it accounts for more than 36 per cent of the labour force. According to a report by Jobberman, the sector employs over 23 million people. These workers are involved in various tasks on farms of different scales across Nigeria, including land clearing, harrowing, planting seeds, weeding, spreading fertilizer, harvesting, packaging, livestock management, and more. The majority of these jobs require a large workforce.
Beyond those directly employed on farms, there are also many individuals indirectly involved, such as drivers transporting workers to and from the farms and hawkers selling food to the farm workers, which stimulates local economic activities.
However, the full adoption of AI technologies in Nigeria's agricultural sector could potentially replace the jobs of over 20 million Nigerians. AI-driven machinery and automation could perform tasks that currently require numerous workers, thereby significantly reducing the need for human labour.
While this technological shift could increase efficiency and productivity, it also poses a significant risk of job displacement for a substantial portion of the Nigerian workforce.
Apapa Port in Lagos is a bustling hub of economic activity, currently employing thousands of workers directly and indirectly. Tasks range from loading and unloading cargo to administrative duties and transportation logistics. However, with the full deployment of AI systems at the port, it would only require two or three people to oversee the entire operations, leading to the displacement of almost all the direct and indirect workers. The thousands of people currently employed at the port, as well as those in related support roles, would lose their jobs.
To put this in perspective, consider the Shanghai Smart Port in China. This port, which surpasses the combined capacity of all ports in the USA, operates with intelligent automated container terminals and manages 47.4 million containers autonomously. Remarkably, there is not a single human worker involved in its operations. If Apapa Port were to adopt similar AI technologies, the impact on employment would be profound, replacing thousands of workers with automated systems and dramatically altering the employment landscape.
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Implementing AI systems for immigration tasks like passport and passenger verification at Nigerian airports would lead to a significant reduction in the workforce. I've personally encountered such systems at Dubai Airport when exiting the country, where intelligent systems efficiently screen passengers.
I can go on and on but because of limited space, I will stop here.
On the global scene, Amazon has replaced over 100,000 workers with robots, significantly streamlining its operations. Similarly, Google laid off over 12,000 employees due to the adoption of AI technologies. In 2023, AI Magazine reported that AI technology was responsible for the elimination of over 200,000 roles across various industries. Numerous companies are reducing their workforce, citing AI adoption as the primary reason for these layoffs. As of January 2024, more than 4,000 layoffs directly related to AI have been reported, underscoring the rapid and significant impact of AI on employment worldwide.
This shift emphasises the profound impact of AI on the job market, highlighting the urgent need for strategies to mitigate potential negative effects on employment.
Haruna Chiroma, Asst. Professor of Artificial Intelligence, University of Hafr Al Batin, Saudi Arabia, [email protected]
