"There is evidently no improvement in the availability, reliability and affordability of electricity in Nigeria today. Instead, we have less available."
When President Bola Tinubu assumed office on 29 May 2023, he promised Nigerians that electricity would become more accessible and affordable to businesses and homes.
"Power generation should nearly double, and transmission and distribution networks improved. We will encourage states to develop local sources as well," he said.
However, that has not been the case.
The Nigerian electricity supply chain is still being plagued by all manner of problems, including, but not limited to unreliable grid systems, gas scarcity, substantial debt burdens, and vandalism.
These problems have impacted businesses and citizens adversely.
To further compound the problems, in April, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) approved an increase in electricity tariff for customers under the Band A classification.
Under the Band A classification, those who receive 20 hours of electricity supply daily will pay N225 per kilowatt (kW) -- up from N66. Customers in Band B are expected to receive 16 to 20 hours of electricity daily, while those in Band C should get 12 to 16 hours daily.
NERC said the newly approved tariff is expected to reduce subsidies by about N1.14 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year.
"With the newly approved tariffs, subsidies for the 2024 fiscal year are expected to reduce by about NGN1.14 trillion in furtherance of the federal government's realignment of the subsidy regime," Musliu Oseni, NERC's vice-chairman, said to justify the new electricity tariff.
This prompted pushback from the public, who called for a reversal of the action and forced NERC to direct distribution companies (DisCos) not to implement the new tariff if they failed to provide up to 20 hours of electricity to customers classified under Band A.
Many Nigerians argued that the timing was not right because they had yet to recover from the removal of the subsidy on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol.
Despite the hike in electricity tariff, power supply to homes and businesses has continued to dwindle.
Promises
Ahead of the last general elections, Mr Tinubu said he would ensure that DisCos charge cost-reflective tariffs after they must have provided meters to all their customers.
"By streamlining and accelerating existing schemes such as the National Mass Metering Programme and the Meter Asset Provider Scheme, we shall seek to ensure that all electricity connections are properly metered within the shortest possible time frame," he said.
"New connections will not be permitted to be energised from the grid unless a meter has been installed."
He also said he would reduce import levies and provide incentives for local manufacturing of electricity meters.
To attract investments for renewable energy projects, Mr Tinubu said Nigeria would commit to "carbon neutrality" by 2060. He said this would provide solar energy sources across the country and mini-grid solutions to homes and businesses.
The president said his administration would simplify regulations to enable private and public sector collaboration to electrify rural areas. He added that the federal government would promote research and innovation through universities and polytechnics and attract international investment for practical and cost-effective power solutions.
Mr Tinubu also said he would prioritise gas resources for local power generation and support projects to enhance grid reliability and connectivity.
Appraisal
In June 2023, President Tinubu signed an electricity bill that empowers states, companies, and individuals to generate, transmit, and distribute electricity.
This legislation repeals the Electricity and Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 and consolidates laws pertaining to the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI). It also mandates that NERC will retain sole regulation of the electricity sector within states until they institute their electricity market regulations.
States like Lagos, Edo, and Oyo have since enacted the bill, hoping for better electricity supply to residents.
President Tinubu signed the Electricity Act (Amendment) Bill 2024 into law in February. This bill addresses host communities' development and environmental concerns, allocating five per cent of the actual annual operating expenditures of power generating companies (GENCOs) from the preceding year for the development of their respective host communities.
The funds set aside for community development will be managed and administered for infrastructure projects by a reputable Trustee/Manager, jointly appointed by the respective GENCO and their host community.
No significant progress has been made in supporting domestic meter manufacturing.
In March, during a visit to MEMMCOL in Mowe, Ogun State, Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu reaffirmed the government's commitment to supporting local manufacturers.
"The only way we can do this is to support local manufacturers. Apart from support, we must also incentivise them by providing a conducive atmosphere that makes their production activities cost-competitive," Mr Adelabu said.
Despite Mr Tinubu's blueprint for enhancing the country's power supply, Mr Adelabu, Minister of Power, stated in April 2024 that the power sector crisis has "defied" all solutions.
Speaking when he hosted the Senate Committee on Power, led by Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, Mr Adelabu noted that suppliers have refused to supply more gas due to the debt the federal government owes.
The minister announced plans to boost the electricity supply from 4,000 megawatts (MW) to 6,000MW by the end of 2024. "The infrastructure is lying there, without adequate maintenance, the turbines are getting rusty. With proper investment, we can generate 6,000 megawatts before the end of 2024," Mr Adelabu said.
Many Nigerians continue to pay for electricity under the estimated billing system, as the Senate only recently approved Mr Tinubu's request to borrow $500 million to procure electricity meters. This loan is part of the $7.94 billion and €100 million total borrowing request he sought approval from the National Assembly last November.
The Senate Committee on Local and Foreign Debt blamed the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) for the delay in approving the loan request, stating that BPE failed to provide the necessary details to work on the president's request.
President Tinubu established a Presidential Committee on Climate Green Economic Solutions as part of his renewable energy strategy. This 25-member committee, chaired by President Tinubu himself, will oversee all activities in the renewable energy sector.
The committee will identify, develop, and implement innovative climate action initiatives that do not rely on oil and gas. Additionally, it will coordinate the activities of relevant federal institutions to achieve the federal government's climate action, green economic objectives, and non-oil/non-gas ambitions.
Twelve months later, it is undeniable that Nigeria's electricity supply has worsened, with the national grid experiencing at least six partial and total collapses since Mr Tinubu became president in 2023.
President Tinubu recently approved the gradual repayment of over N3.3 trillion in power sector debts. The Federal Government will pay N1.3 trillion owed to power-generating companies through cash and promissory notes, and $1.3 billion owed to gas companies through cash and future royalties.
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Payments have already begun, with plans to complete the process over the next two to five years.
Scorecard
Giving his insight about the sector, Sam Amadi, former chairman of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), said there has been no improvement in availability, reliability, or affordability in the power sector.
"There is evidently no improvement in the availability, reliability and affordability of electricity in Nigeria today. Instead, we have less availability. We supply about 3,400mw on average every day. That's not an improvement. The grid has collapsed more than three times this year. And we have a 300 per cent increase in tariff for Band A customers. That's not affordable," he said.
According to Mr Amadi, the Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Theory, power generation decreased due to gas shortages, and transmission and distribution remained fragile due to poor management.
He stated that transmission and distribution have not significantly improved, which has led to frequent grid collapses.
He said the national grid remains very fragile, and the poor quality of leadership and management at the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) hinders any significant improvement in grid management.
"The quality of leadership and management of the TCN remains poor, and there will be no significant improvement in grid management without quality leadership in the power sector," he said.
He did acknowledge the new electricity law that permits states to participate in the power sector, noting that it can be transformative if appropriately managed. Still, if mishandled, it could also cause the sector to collapse.
Overall, Mr Amadi believes that the administration has failed in its mission regarding the power sector, having yet to achieve any notable successes.
