Mr Tinubu has only spent a quarter of his four-year tenure, but millions of Nigerians including farmers are already questioning his ability to implement his agriculture promises.
Ahead of this year's planting season, Esonu Udeala borrowed N90,000 to rent a hectare of land for his orange-fleshed sweet potatoes farm in Abuja. But he now doubts the venture due to lingering insecurity that has extended to the Nigerian capital, delayed rainfall and inflation driven by recent government policies.
Mr Udeala described the past year as the most "traumatic" for small-scale farmers in Nigeria and linked the hardship to the lack of 'realistic assistance' from the government.
"Now to plant is a nightmare: (there's) high cost of farm inputs, labour, transport, everything," the farmer said.
Like Mr Udeala, several farmers who spoke with PREMIUM TIMES bemoaned the condition that they faced over the past year as the agriculture sector continued to be blighted by policy inconsistencies, insecurity, extreme weather conditions, inadequate agricultural infrastructure, skyrocketing input prices and the inefficiency of the agriculture ministry.
Promises
President Bola Tinubu in his inaugural address promised to create agricultural hubs across the country as part of efforts to boost food sufficiency and availability in Nigeria.
"Agricultural hubs will be created throughout the nation to increase production and engage in value-added processing," Mr Tinubu said.
He said the livestock sector will be introduced to best modern practices and steps taken to minimise conflicts over land and water resources in this sector.
The president said commodity exchange boards would be created to stabilise prices for animal products and crops such as cashews, cocoa, sesame, soya, cassava, yam, rubber, okra, palm kernels, groundnut and okra. This, he said, would guarantee reliable incomes for farmers.
Also, the government would modernise the country's grain reserves and food storage facilities to curb food wastage, prioritise rural infrastructural development, build effective irrigation systems, create seamless access to low-cost loans for farmers, build farm cooperatives and expand arable land areas through large-scale land clearing, he said.
"A nationwide programme for storage and other facilities to reduce spoilage and waste will be undertaken," Mr Tinubu said.
Through these actions, the president said, food would be made more abundant and affordable while farmers earn more.
But one year later, Nigerians already worry that the government may not achieve its targets.
PREMIUM TIMES examines how Nigeria's agriculture sector fared under Mr Tinubu after a year in office.
Concerns
Less than two months after Mr Tinubu took office last year, he declared a State of Emergency on food insecurity. The measure was aimed at taming skyrocketing food prices amid the declining purchasing power of Nigerians and poor income and climate change effects on food prices.
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) predicted that over 25 million Nigerians may face acute hunger at the peak of the lean season (the period between planting and harvesting - June-August) of that year.
Meanwhile, Nigeria's inflation rate has steadily risen since Mr Tinubu became president. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), inflation rose to 33.69 per cent in April 2024 from 22.41 per cent in May last year. Food inflation followed a similar trend, climbing to 40.53 per cent in April 2024 from 24.82 per cent last year in May.
Although in recent years, food prices have been on a steady rise across Nigeria, the situation worsened due to the impact of Mr Tinubu's policies such as the removal of subsidy on petrol, among others.
Last August, Mr Tinubu swore in 45 ministers, including Abubakar Kyari, a former senator, as Minister of Agriculture and Food Security.
Upon assuming office at the ministry, Mr Kyari said he would focus on Mr Tinubu's main target -- food security in the country. But the minister's impact is yet to be felt by Nigerians after almost a year of overseeing the ministry.
Farmers are still grappling with the effect of the fuel subsidy removal which sent transportation costs up. The prices of major farm inputs such as seeds, fertilisers, pesticides and labour have also risen, adding to existing challenges for farmers.A review of the NBS data indicated that despite moves by the government to boost food availability in the country to force down prices of major staple foods, inflationary pressure has remained.
This is evident in the prices of basic food items such as bread, rice, beans, eggs and other poultry as well as livestock products consumed by Nigerians. In less than 12 months, the prices of major staple food items and livestock feed ingredients such as maize and soybeans have more than doubled from what they were in May last year. This has made the prices of basic protein such as eggs unaffordable for many.
Action Plans
Following his declaration of a state of emergency on food security, Mr Tinubu listed specific steps to be taken by the government. These include the immediate release of "fertilisers and grains to farmers and households" and protecting "farms and the farmers so that farmers can return to the farmlands without fear of attacks."
The authorities described the development as short-, medium-- and long-term strategies towards addressing the challenges of food affordability and accessibility in the country.
To kickstart the process, the federal government in August released 100 trucks of grains and 100 trucks of fertilisers to each state government to mitigate the effects of the removal of petroleum subsidies on Nigerians.
The government commenced the distribution of grains across the country to force down food prices.
Additionally, the federal government in November last year flagged off the National Wheat Development Programme in Jigawa State with the intention to cultivate 100,000 hectares of wheat during the year's dry season farming schedule.
The agriculture minister and other dignitaries at the time emphasised that wheat production would help attain the national development objectives of food security, economic diversification, and empowerment of citizens.
Similarly, in November last year, Mr Kyari also flagged off the National Agricultural Show to address food insecurity, alleviate poverty, create job opportunities and inclusiveness of youth and women in the agriculture sector.
Within the same period, the minister signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with John Deere, an agricultural machinery company, in furtherance of the ministry's plan to procure 2,000 tractors annually.
But despite these interventions, the impacts are not significantly felt across the country. The purchasing power of consumers continues to fall, as citizens' income cannot match the skyrocketing costs of food commodities.
Views
Speaking on the progress and challenges facing Nigeria's agriculture sector in the past year, the country Director of Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA), Godwin Atser, said when Mr Tinubu committed to prioritising agriculture, it was positive news to stakeholders in the agricultural sector.
While recognising that efforts are being made in that direction, Mr Atser argued that more needs to be done.
"There is an urgent need to invest in the Extension sector by the government so that innovations get to farmers. The government does not have to reinvent the wheel. Some works by (non-governmental) organisations should be scaled up," he said.
Mr Atser urged the agriculture ministry to engage farmer organisations and relevant Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) for support.
Azeez Salawu, the founder of Community Action for Food Security (CAFS), said Nigeria's agriculture sector has shown resilience despite its numerous challenges.
He emphasised that the sector remains a cornerstone of the economy, providing employment for a significant portion of the population and contributing to food and nutrition security.
He said the sector faced considerable challenges in the past year, and that the removal of fuel subsidies has further affected the sector by increasing the cost of inputs and transportation across various value chains.
"Amidst rising food inflation, Nigeria can take steps to strengthen its agriculture sector. Firstly, they start by investing in rural infrastructure such as roads, storage facilities, and irrigation systems to reduce post-harvest losses and improve market access for farmers," the food security expert noted.
He urged the government to strengthen agricultural extension services to provide farmers with up-to-date information on best practices, and climate-smart agriculture.
Additionally, Mr Salawu said, the government should facilitate more efficient access to markets, including digital platforms, to ensure farmers receive fair prices for their produce.
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"Lastly, they should promote the diversification of crops and livestock to reduce dependency on a few staples and improve overall food security," he added.
Emem Essien, co-founder of Crop2Cash, an agritech company providing digital financial services to farmers in rural communities, said over the last year, the agricultural sector has experienced a huge decline in production output, leading to food inflation.
"One of the major factors for this aside from the perennial insecurity challenges is increase in price of major inputs like fertiliser, crop protective products, and most importantly, fuel price increment," Mr Essien said. He added that this affected the cost of production, which prompted farmers to shift their production costs to consumers.
For instance, Mr Essien noted that many farmers in the country who practise dry season production could not do that because they complained it would be expensive to irrigate their farms and the venture would not be profitable.
"As currently being observed, is the issue of climate unpredictability. The rains are coming late and still haven't been established. Many farmers are already complaining of crop failure because we mainly depend on rainfed agriculture. That means they have lost the seeds and initial investments," Mr Essien said.
The Crop2Cash official explained that in the face of these challenges, subsidising output is key to solving the challenge of increased food prices.
Although Mr Essien said he is not a fan of subsidies, he said when such initiatives are applied rightly to solving pressing needs, it can be a catalyst for growth and development.
He said if subsidies for inputs are applied for production, there is a risk of diversion, and that this would mean unintended beneficiaries getting the support and side selling without actually producing food.
"However, when output is subsidised, you already give people the incentives to produce with an assured guaranteed purchase price," he added.
On climate change, Mr Essien said getting farmers access to solar-powered water pumps will ensure all-year food production and ultimately drive down the cost of production.
