Do almost half of Nigerians suffer multiple forms of poverty? Fact-checking columnist's claims
- Akintunde was wrong that 47.3% of the Nigerian population is multidimensionally poor - or facing multiple forms of poverty, not just financial. The country's statistics agency says it is 63%, while an international index done before the Covid pandemic gives it as 33%.
- His claim that the current inflation rate is 36% is inflated - it is 33.69%, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, although food inflation is 40.53%.
- The columnist was also incorrect in claiming that current inflation is the highest in 28 years.
Nigerians have been struggling with the high cost of living, with trade unions organising a nationwide strike to demand a higher minimum wage.
As the debate continued, Africa Check used artificial intelligence tools to monitor public discourse and found a newspaper column claiming that "in 2022, 47.3% of Nigerians were multidimensionally poor".
The claim was made by Kazeem Akintunde, a communications consultant and editor of Nigerian news publication Glitters Online, in a column titled Playing Tom and Jerry with Workers Welfare.
"The present minimum wage of N30,000 has trapped workers in a cycle of poverty. As far back as 2021, 47.3% of Nigerians were multidimensionally poor," Akintunde wrote.
He continued: "That number has gone up significantly following the removal of fuel subsidy and a galloping inflation rate of 36%, the highest in the last 28 years."
Are these sobering statistics accurate? We checked.
The article did not give a source for this claim. Africa Check contacted Akintunde and we will update the report once we receive a response.
Poverty is a broad concept, defined by the World Bank as a "pronounced deprivation in well-being".
Poverty lines, which estimate the amount of money someone needs each month to afford certain necessities, are often used to measure absolute poverty. But researchers argue that they only capture a partial picture of the problem.
With this in mind, the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative at the University of Oxford in the UK and the United Nations (UN) Development Programme developed the global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) in 2010.
Multidimensional poverty refers not only to a lack of financial resources, but also a lack of access to basic necessities and opportunities in many aspects of life. This can take the form of poor health, lack of education, inadequate living standards and disempowerment.
The most recent index was launched in July 2023. It covers 110 countries, with data sources including the UN's Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, Demographic and Health Surveys and national surveys.
According to the index, multidimensional poverty in Nigeria was 33% in 2021, affecting 70.5 million people. It was 38.2% in 2018, 40.8% in 2017 and 42.3% in 2013.
What does local data show?
In 2022, Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its first multidimensional poverty index. The index is based on 15 indicators grouped into four dimensions: health, education, living standards, and work and shocks.
Conducted between November 2021 and February 2022 on the heels of the Covid pandemic, the index found that 62.9% of the population (133 million people) were multidimensionally poor.
The index is significantly different from the poverty headcount rate of 2019, which found that 40.1% of Nigerians were poor, based on the official consumption expenditure poverty line of N137,430 per person per year.
Headcount poverty, or the poverty rate, is a common measure of the proportion of individuals or households in a population below a specified poverty threshold.
In its report, the NBS said that the levels of multidimensional poverty profiled using its index should be seen as "complementing" the poverty profile derived from using a monetary definition of poverty.
"Although both measures seek to explain poverty, they do so from different perspectives and usually the Nigeria MPI identifies a higher share of people as being poor.
"In this case, 40.1% of Nigerians are poor according to the 2018/19 pre-pandemic national monetary poverty line, while 62.9% are multidimensionally poor in the Nigeria MPI (2022). Comparisons must consider the difference in years, especially given the pandemic."
Looking at both sources, we consider the columnist's claim of a 47.3% multidimensional poverty rate in 2021 as incorrect.
Inflation measures how the price of a basket of commonly consumed goods and services have risen over a period of time, usually a year. It causes prices to rise across the board, but at different rates for different goods and services. Some rise rapidly, while others remain stable.
The NBS tracks monthly inflation. It measures core inflation, food inflation and inflation on all items, or what is often referred to as headline inflation.
Core inflation is the change in the cost of goods and services, excluding food and energy. Food inflation is the rise in food prices, while inflation for all items, including volatile commodities such as food and energy, is headline inflation.
The NBS's latest figures show that the headline inflation rate rose to 33.69% in April 2024, with food inflation at 40.53%. The April figure is what would have been available to Akintunde while writing his column.
In January, headline inflation was 29.9%. It was 31.7% in February and 33.2% in March.
Prof Oladiran Akinbobola teaches economics at the Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile-Ife, western Nigeria.
He told Africa Check that the country's current situation of high inflation was particularly challenging for low-income households, worsening poverty.
Ongoing insecurity in the country has been identified as a factor in reduced agricultural production.
"The government should treat insecurity as a serious problem, agriculture is a way of development. Supporting farmers will enable them to engage in agriculture on a large scale," Akinbobola said.
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He added that Nigeria was heavily dependent on imports, including food and cars, but needed to look inwards and produce enough for its own consumption first.
This claim would go back to 1996. Inflation in Nigeria has fluctuated over the years, but the available data shows that the 36% rate is not the highest in nearly three decades.
Annualised inflation refers to the rate of inflation calculated over a year, even if the data used to calculate it is for a shorter period, such as a month or a quarter. It provides a consistent way of comparing inflation rates over different time periods by standardising them to an annual rate.
Looking at Nigeria's inflation trend over a 28-year period to 2024, the 28-year high is 29.3% in 1996, not 36% as claimed. The closest was 34% in 1975. The World Bank projects an annualised inflation rate of 28.1% in 2024.
Therefore, based on these annual inflation figures, Akintunde's claim is inaccurate.
Several factors, including higher food costs and general price increases, have been reported as contributing to the significant rise in inflation, making it difficult for many Nigerians to afford basic necessities.
To reduce the rate of inflation and poverty, Akinbobola said the government should prioritise a number of things:
- Solve the problem of insecurity,
- Open borders for trade with neighbouring countries
- Create jobs, especially for the youth
- Provide credit for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
- Strengthen its agricultural and manufacturing sectors
