Irregular rainfall patterns, extreme weather, land degradation, and desert encroachment are some of the challenges the Katsina farmers face.
For over 15 years, Abdullahi Umar recorded poor harvests on his farm annually. Other farmers in his native Yanhoho in Kaita Local Government Area of Katsina State had the same concern until an agricultural extension worker visited them three years ago.
"We learnt that climate change is the reason we're recording low quantities of food produce," Mr Umar told PREMIUM TIMES in February. "I've several farms in this community. There is a farm where I used to get 50 bundles of millet but I now get 20. There is another one I used to get 70 bundles, now I get between 30 and 40."
The large-scale farmer of maise, millet, beans, and rice said he identified climate-related change issues, including frequent changes in rainfall patterns, land degradation, and desert encroachment.
"For three consecutive farming seasons, I recorded losses in my rice farms because of the rainfall pattern. Sometimes, it will start raining then cease, return and cease again, which makes the rice wilt," he said.
In one of his farms in Yanhoho, Mr Umar showed PREMIUM TIMES how arid sand is replacing the original land that's suitable for farming, a development he described as "a sign of the sand from the Sahara and it's not good for our crops."
Climate change shocks
Located in the North-western part of Nigeria, Katsina State faces climate change concerns such as desertification, drought, floods, unpredictable rain patterns, and extreme weather. The state is among 11 regarded as the "desertification frontline" that led to Nigeria's Great Green Wall project in 2014.
States in the extreme west and eastern parts of the north experience harsher weather compared to states in the South and central parts, according to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET).
"Katsina State is close to the fringes of the Sahara desert where there are risks of advancement of desertification. Around 1945, the European colonial masters established four forest reserves in Barawa, Nasarawa, kabakawa and Modoji but due to increase in population, all the forest reserves have been deforested," said Sulaiman Iguda-Ladan, a chief lecturer at the Department of Basic and Applied Science at Hassan Usman Katsina Polytechnic in Katsina.
Mr Iguda-Ladan added that another reason Katsina faces severe climate change concerns is that its climate is wet and dry, making it easily affected by changes in rainfall.
"Sometimes the rain will become too much and we will have floods, and sometimes we end up with drought when there is no rain. During the season, we may have too much dryness, which can affect the ecosystem," he said.
Seasonal Predictions
An analysis of the climate between 2020 and 2023 showed that the length of the rainy season in the state decreased.
There has always been a huge difference in the number of days in the season between the North and the South, with states like Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi witnessing the early end of the rainy season in the years studied.
NiMET's seasonal climate predictions revealed that the onset date in the South mostly begins in February but in June in the North, with the rain extending to December in the South and September in the North.
"The earliest cessation date is expected around Katsina and the northern part of Sokoto. The length of the season in the extreme North is expected to be 116 days and 300 days in the South," the climate predictions for the years between 2020 and 2023 showed.
The predictions also showed that rainfall ranges between 400mm (North) and 3000mm (South), with places in the extreme North, such as Sokoto, Katsina, Yobe, and Borno, expected to have the least.
"Generally, the 2020 annual rainfall is predicted to be normal except for places around Katsina which are likely to have below normal rainfall amount," the predictions captured.
Food Production
In multiple interviews with farmers and elderly people in Katsina, Mashi, Kaita, Rimi, and Batagarawa local government areas of Katsina State, PREMIUM TIMES gathered that the quantity of food produced on a yearly basis has substantially reduced. Farming is the predominant occupation in Katsina and most of the extreme northern states, as residents, including public and private servants, are engaged in agricultural activities.
A farmer and food processor in Garo in Mashi Local Government Area, Laritu Rufa'i, said the situation has deteriorated over the years.
"I have been threshing millet and guinea corn especially, for over ten years," the 57-year-old woman told PREMIUM TIMES. "There is a decrease in the number of bundles and bags I produce from what people bring to me for husking."
Zulaidani Idris, a 47-year-old farmer in Garo, said he has recorded a substantial decrease in the number of bags he produces from a farm he has worked on for 15 years.
"The most noticeable issue for us is the rainfall pattern. When there is rain in a season, we have more farm produce but when there is an on and off rainfall pattern, we hardly realise anything meaningful," Mr Idris, a traditional title holder in the community, told PREMIUM TIMES in March.
Mr Idris said he harvested more than ten bags (100kg) of millet, beans and guinea corn each seven years ago but barely gets five bags for each crop now. His beans barely filled two bags in recent years.
55-year-old Saidu Abdullahi, a large-scale farmer in Mashi, has also noticed several climate conditions leading to changes in food production.
"On the same farm that I have used for over 17 years, I have been witnessing a reduction in farm yields," Mr Abdullahi, who is also a veterinary nurse, told PREMIUM TIMES during a visit to his farm.
"The land is no longer fertile compared to 30 years ago when I started farming. We also have cases of land encroachment in this area; you know we are also close to the Niger Republic."
In March, a quick market survey and discussions with grain merchants in the state revealed an increase in food prices from October to date. Most grains are harvested in October, and traders expect prices to drop during and after the month.
However, prices have risen.
Before October 2023, 100kg of maize sold at N50,000 but the price rose to N53,000. It now sells at N57,000 and higher.
The prices of rice (100kg) also rose from N84,000 to N96,000 and higher, while the prices of beans (100kg) rose from N54,000 to between N68,000 and N94,000.
The price of millet (100kg) also rose from N46,000 (before October) to N48,000 (October) and later N60,000. Guinea corn (100kg) prices also rose from N49,000 to N51,000 and later N57,000.
The lecturer and climate change researcher, Mr Iguda-Ladan, said the trend could be connected to climate change.
He said factors such as lack of rainfall, hell storms, flooding and others have impacted the quantity of food produced in the state.
"Sometimes, there is no rain during the rainy season. I remember in 2021, the rainfall suddenly stopped and many crops were lost. Lack of rain in months like August affects some crops like beans and rice.
"Because of climate change, we have the occurrence of extreme weather events like flooding, which wash away crops. I remember the Kankia Dam in 2014 broke out and washed away crops. I also remember that in 2018, the Jibia Dam broke out and spilled too much water. Several crops also got damaged. Hailstorms (particles of ice) fell during rainfall and damaged a lot of crops in Kafur and Danja in 2022," he said.
Ripple effects
This newspaper found that the situation has led to increased prices, unavailability of farm produce, and scarcity of food items.
Women food processors and sellers are also bearing the brunt of this scarcity and increased prices as they have recorded significant reductions in income and sales.
Deep into Sabuwar Unguwa, one of the most populated areas in the Katsina metropolis, Suwaiba Alhasaan ponders what has become of her Awara (tofu) business.
Mrs Alhasaan, who has been in the business for over 16 years, said the increase in the price of soybeans had forced her to stop buying them in bulk.
"Six years ago, a bag of soybeans was sold at N12,000, but it moved to N20,000. Now it's sold at N62,000," Mrs Alhasaan told PREMIUM TIMES in her house.
"When you ask the sellers they will tell you the product is becoming scarce. The farmers are complaining that they don't get a positive yield."
Asked how it has affected her business, the mother of seven said the situation has forced her to increase the price per piece and many people no longer buy.
"Sometimes we don't even make a profit but we have no option," she said.
Hajia Magajiya, who sells cooked rice and beans in Yarinci area of Katsina metropolis, said she finds it difficult to get varieties of some food produce.
"I've been in this business for over 23 years. In these years, I have been noticing changes. Varieties of beans especially have been changing and even grain sellers don't know why. The farmers sometimes say some varieties no longer yield positively," Mrs Magajiya said in Hausa.
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Strategy Concern
Mr Iguda-Laban said farmers need to adapt to the changes and plant crops that can grow within a limited period of time.
He also said farmers in the state should be getting updates from NiMET on rainfall onset and cessation data, among other ways.
"The farmers should try to adapt to the changes by planting crops that will grow and mature within a short period of time because rainfall is no longer reliable. They can plant crops that can be harvested ... before the rainy season stops suddenly.
"They also have traditional means of adaptation that are indigenous to them because most of the farmers in Katsina have been farming for 15 to 20 years. Another way is to get rainfall onset and cessation data from NiMET, which assists farmers in planning their activities. They can join government programmes aimed at ensuring climate change resilience.
"Farmers should focus more on irrigation farming because it's less affected by climate change if you compare it with rainy season farming. This system doesn't rely much on rainfall," Mr Iguda-Ladan said.
Katsina government's policies
Katsina governor Dikko Radda said his administration would continue to enact policies that would ensure food security in the state.
In May, while inaugurating the state's Climate Change Council (SCCC) in the state capital, Mr Radda said, "The time is now for us to join the global fight against climate change."
The council's mission is to spearhead efforts to combat climate change and ensure a sustainable future for Katsina.
Mr Radda pledged full support to the council and highlighted the urgency of enacting new policies, conducting feasibility studies, and securing funding from both national and international sources.
The council's four main areas of focus are empowering Katsina's youth by fostering climate-friendly employment opportunities, tripling the state's agricultural productivity for food security, addressing water scarcity challenges, and enhancing rural communities' well-being while safeguarding the environment.
The report was supported by the Centre For Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID)
