YOU are used to hearing of Northern Governors Forum, NGF. Now you are also hearing of Southern Governors Forum, SGF. Politicians are warming their engines for 2027, simple.
The NGF is one of the remaining relics of the fast-dying imperial Sokoto Caliphate, or Northern (Arewa) political establishment which has dominated Nigeria's affairs even before Independence. The original Arewa machine had many organs and guilds, such as the politicians, merchants, academics, journalists, Islamic clerics, traditional rulers and the toiling working class, the Talakawa, to whom the late Mallam Aminu Kano dedicated his life as a political leader.
Before independence, the Northern intelligentsia, despite being educationally less-endowed than their Eastern and Western counterparts, were excellently organised. They had their various "discussion circles" which robustly articulated their views of social advancement, particularly how the North should key into the impending independent Nigeria. The first and only Nigerian Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, for instance, was a product of the Bauchi Discussion Circle. He was a teacher and also a powerful orator.
This intellectual orientation of the Northern establishment continued after the war in the guise of the Kaduna Mafia. Today, the pillars that made the North a formidable region are all but withered away. The Northern Governors Forum is still standing. So are interest groups such as the Northern Elders Forum, NEF; Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF; and younger elements - Coalition of Northern Youths, CNY - and others which are more or less prebendary hangers-on or support groups of Northern politicians and government officeholders.
The Caliphate is now on the verge of implosion due to homegrown insecurity fired by Islamic and Fulani extremism. Look at the football that politicians are playing with Kano Emirs. There is now talk of the possible dethronement of the 20th Sultan of Sokoto, Sa'ad Abubakar, which recently prompted Vice President Kashim Shettima to call for that heritage to be "jealously" protected. That is how bad things have got over there.
In its time, the Caliphate was very sophisticated in many ways. Once you projected that Arewa (Northern Muslim) identity, you were accepted and made to feel at home in any part of the North. With its Islamic influence, it was able to suppress ethnic consciousness within the North leaving in plain sight what was referred to as "Hausa-Fulani". This was an arrangement which gave Fulani their political, religious and traditional ascendancy while leaving the overwhelming majority Hausa population with a false sense of belonging. But today, Fulani are radically asserting their ethnic separateness, mostly through violence. The Hausas are still happy, so be it.
This sense of unity enabled a person like Nasir el-Rufai, whose parents were reportedly from Katsina, to contest and govern Kaduna State for eight years without anyone raising dust. Lagos State also provides a similar opportunity for all people of Yoruba stock, to the point where the original indigenes are now largely sidelined politically from the governance of their state. This is simply impossible in the South-East and South-South!
The 19 Northern Governors have thrived on the sense of unity which Arewa bestows on its elements. They meet regularly and take common positions on national issues. This is the main organ, along with the NEF and ACF, through which the North has successfully thwarted moves towards a truly federal Nigeria.
The same cannot be said for the South. This is the hotbed of ethnic hatred and rivalry, which have helped to sustain Northern dominance. The North is able to dominate Nigeria not because of its own powers. The North is actually very vulnerable and heavily dependent upon the South, has been since Amalgamation.
Remove the South, and the North becomes just another Niger Republic or Chad; a landlocked Sahel enclave. However, under visionary leaders, the North can still thrive. They have the natural resources, especially arable land and solid minerals. But they will lose the freeloads that service the privileges of their idle aristocrats - control of our marine and oil resources, military and law enforcement forces. That is why they insist that Nigeria is "indivisible and indissoluble". The Western zone agrees with them because they have been comfortably accommodated in a strong partnership to rule (and ruin) Nigeria.
The Southern Governors Forum's renewed visibility is obviously the earliest beginning of the race for 2027. The North has been grumbling that President Bola Tinubu's emi l'okan nepotism has taken away the juicy government posts that Muhammadu Buhari's extreme nepotism roguishly procured for them.
Atiku Abubakar has been running around, looking for a coalition that will give him a chance to dethrone Tinubu in 2027. He invited Peter Obi for alliance talks and rallied some disgruntled Northern politicians to meet with Buhari in Daura. It was at the same period that the Southern Governors Forum sprang from nowhere. Tinubu is seen to be behind this, sending a signal to the Northern elements looking to take power from him.
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It is a pity that Mr Desperation, Atiku Abubakar, has forgotten the lesson that former President Goodluck Jonathan taught him in 2010/2011. His Northern coalition even failed to give him a party ticket then. Is it Tinubu, the master of the game, that you will push off his perch?
The Southern Governors Forum has nothing to do with pushing any Southern agenda or fostering Southern unity. It is all about Tinubu's second term ambition. But if the South really wants to build a strong coalition to counter Northern domination, it is very possible. And it is very necessary if the South is to neutralise the colonial-like grip of the North on their resources. A strong Southern coalition will attract the partnership of the three Christian-dominated Northern states - Plateau, Benue and Taraba - and create a new majority bloc to neutralise Arewa.
But that is easier said than done!
