"We will continue the work of the current administration in reforming the civil service to fight corruption, reduce bureaucracy, streamline agencies and decrease inefficiency and waste" - RENEWED HOPE DOCUMENT pg. 17
We can protect our exchange rate, guard against inflation and preserve foreign currency reserves by limiting our exposure to large debt obligations denominated in foreign currency....Our policy will be such that new foreign currency debt obligations will be linked to projects that generate cash flows from which the debt can be repaid" (pg 21).
"What we can do and what we shall do is to build on the foundation laid by President Buhari's Presidential Power Initiative... (pg 30).
Mr President, first an introduction is required. UniJankara was founded in 1999; just as the government of former President Obasanjo was stepping into office. Our Motto: We pay nothing to staff, but we work all the time. Our major focus is Nigeria and its governments - Federal and States; with priority always given to the FG which largely determines the fate of our nation. It might be of interest to you to know that we were the first group to condemn the OBJ regime by publishing a book in 2008 titled: PDP: CORRUPTION INCORPORATED.
The Yar'Adua administration was also roundly carpeted for its failures. And, as far as we were concerned, the Jonathan government was the second major opportunity lost after the oil boom of the 1970s. Consequently, we threw our support behind candidate Buhari from 2011 until the All Progressives Congress, APC, made him the presidential candidate. We were well aware of his limitations - low educational qualifications, mental laziness and ethnic and religious bigotry. But, we assumed, quite wrongly as it turned out, that with the coalition of political forces which came together to form APC, those tendencies would be dealt with.
We honestly believed that people like you would assist Buhari to govern better. Above all, we actually believed that Buhari was the man to curb pervasive corruption in government. That alone would have saved Nigeria about N12 trillion in eight years. We were wrong. Buhari proved to us that a far worse President than Jonathan could rule Nigeria. Two weeks ago, your Special Adviser, Bayo Onanuga, confirmed our assessment of eight years of Buharism. In his mostly emotional and hardly factual, rejoinder to the New York Times Editorial, critical of Nigeria under your administration, Onanuga declared that "the Tinubu administration inherited a totally ruined economy". That is exactly what we, at UniJankara, have been telling Nigerians since Buhari started on May 29, 2015. But, you, being more partisan than factual, never believed us. Now you should know better; but, apparently you don't. Let me explain.
Renewed hope document induces fear
"Leadership is the ability to define issues without aggravating the problems" - Warren Benis, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, pg 125. We went to great lengths to obtain a copy of the RENEWED HOPE document. Instinct told my colleagues and I that it might turn out to be an important historical document. We were never self- deluded to expect that all, or even most, of the politician's promises in it would be kept. For politicians, breaking promises is as natural as lions feasting on their prey. Generally, though, we were open-minded. We wanted to know what Tinubu/Shettima had in store for us. In less than three days, we went page-by- page, line-by-line of the document; undertook analysis of data, fact-checked every statement and figure provided. Then, we became alarmed for the reasons noted above in the excerpts from the document. Permit me to discuss them one- by-one.
"Nigeria loses N636bn as oil production dips" - Report, June 23, 2024.
The story went on to inform that "the repeated slump in Nigeria's monthly outputs since January has resulted in revenue loss of about N636bn...Oil production data obtained from a Federal Government agency indicated that Nigeria produced 1.43
million barrels of crude...in January this year, but this nosedived to 1.25mbpd in May."
Indisputably, the Federal Minister of Petroleum Resources (and you know who that is), like the football captain who scores own goals against his team, is not only letting the team down, he is letting down the nation as well. Ironically, the only promise your government seems to be redeeming is exactly the one to discard: Promising to continue Buhari's reforms amount to a pledge to drive the nation into economic disaster. To begin with, Buhari carried out no reforms, did not fight corruption or streamline the bureaucracy as you claimed in RENEWED HOPE document. Buharinomics stood for the opposite of what you credited his government for doing. It is easy to see why your government is failing to make any impact as we finish the thirteenth month.
Among other errors of judgment committed by Buhari and Obasanjo, you seized the Ministry of Petroleum; and like them, you are failing at the task. As far back as 1967, in my third year in the university, I learnt that an annual budget, in the public and private sectors, represents a sacred commitment by the Chief Executive Officer, CEO, - President, Governor, Managing Director - to the stakeholders; which must be discharged. Invariably, the total revenue or turnover is the first line of the budget. That announces to all concerned how much the CEO and his vast team of workers promise to earn. Later, the sources of the funds are provided in the explanatory notes. In the 2024 Budget presented to the National Assembly, NASS, the promise by the Minister of Petroleum was to produce and export 1.7mbpd of crude every single day. Instead, the negative variances started right from January 1, 2024.
Everybody knows that crude oil revenue constitutes (or should constitute) the largest source of funds for the FG. Having placed most of our national "eggs" in one basket, the least we should expect of any responsible FG is to safeguard that basket seriously. Yet, in no single month since June 2015 had the FG been able to achieve shipment of 1.7mbpd till today. In that respect, Buhari was a woeful failure; and it beats the imagination why Tinubu would promise continuity of a disaster. It is even more baffling why he wants to follow that precedent. The consequences of adopting a failed policy are there for all, but self- blinded admirers and errand boys and girls of Tinubu to see.
"External debt stood at N121.67 trillion as at March 31, 2024" - Report.
Granted, not all the external loans were incurred by the FG. But, the lion's share was. In just the first three months of this year, Nigeria's debt increased by N24 trillion. That is about 26 per cent more than Tinubu inherited from Buhari after eight years in office and far more than any other Head of State ever accumulated during their entire tenure. That was only in the tenth month of his 48 months in office for first term. Already, plans are being made to borrow more. In addition to crude oil, virtually all the other sources of revenue are once again delivering far less than expected. That takes us back to the promise on page 21 of what is increasingly becoming like abandoned hope by the authors of RENEWED HOPE. There is no evidence that the external debt obligations now undertaken are linked to any projects which would generate revenue to repay the loans. Obviously, this administration, like Buhari's who "totally ruined" the Nigerian economy, according to Bayo Onanuga, is travelling down the same destructive route by borrowing to fund consumption; to pay salaries of unproductive federal
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public servants - including Ministers. We have searched in vain, at UniJankara, for a precedent in history in which a nation developed its economy rapidly and reduced poverty by getting deeper into debt without real investments. The loan sourced from the World Bank to partly fund the promised palliatives is a case in point. Declaration of subsidy removal before a cabinet was formed and adequate preparations made for dealing with the repercussions was a massive blunder - totally un- presidential. The panic reactions in response to the consequences have proved to be an absolute waste of funds - mostly borrowed. Nigerians experience worse food scarcity and higher prices because what Tinubu and the governors did was counter- productive. They induced unusually large purchase of food items during harvest period; allocated them mostly to party members and presumed to have solved the food scarcity problem. Any Agricultural Economist worth his salt could have told the President that the cure prescribed would be worse than the disease. Now food prices have continued climbing; and nobody appears to have a clue regarding how to proceed.
Meanwhile, the vital issue of Minimum Wage has been turned into a joke. When the FG announces a figure, it will be treated with the disdain it deserves. The governors have already made up their minds not to pay N60,000. The President of Nigeria would eventually speak in vain. Chaos is not far behind.
What is to be done ?
Since it is clear that the major problem we have stems from the failures in the Petroleum and Energy Ministry, it would appear that the best thing you can do for Nigeria, Mr President, is to sack the Minister of Petroleum. Just a suggestion.
