Rome — The process of polarization in the Sahel between pro-Western "moderate" states and states that demand their independence from neo-colonial logic, but rely on non-African powers such as Russia and China, is intensifying.
On July 6, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger founded the "Confederation" of Sahel States. The three countries, ruled by military regimes that came to power through coups, have long been on the path of rapprochement in order to jointly face pressure from the West and in particular from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which had imposed sanctions against the coup plotters in an effort to restore democracy. The three countries that founded the "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES) in September 2023 had also announced their withdrawal from ECOWAS in January this year (see Fides, 3/2/2024). In March, the three allied countries then created a joint force to fight the jihadist groups that threaten their territories. At the summit in Niamey (Niger) on July 6, they finally decided to create a real confederation that goes beyond the agreements already made on common defense and also includes areas such as finance, economy, infrastructure, health and education.
The announcement of July 6 came a day before the ECOWAS summit that opened on July 7 in the Nigerian federal capital Abuja, whose president Bola Ahmed Tinubu had adopted a tough stance against the military regimes in the Sahel. A position that has not, however, led to military intervention by West African countries to restore the deposed governments to power, as the Nigerian President had hoped. The rift between the two regional organizations can be summed up in the words of General Abdourahamane Tiani, leader of the Nigerien military junta, who called for "a community away from the control of foreign powers", adding that the peoples of the three countries had "irrevocably turned away from ECOWAS", which was seen as subject to the influence of Paris. The new "strong man" of Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, meanwhile accused the governments of Ivory Coast and Benin of wanting to destabilize his country.
In response to the creation of the Confederation of Sahel States, the head of the ECOWAS Commission, Omar Alieu Touray, stated that the three countries risk "diplomatic and political isolation", the loss of millions of euros in investments and the possible introduction of visa requirements for their residents wishing to travel to ECOWAS member states. Touray also warned that "in addition to the numerous threats to peace and security and the challenges related to poverty, there is also the risk of disintegration of our region". A risk that is all the greater because the two sub-regional blocs, ECOWAS on the one hand and AES on the other, seem to be caught up in the logic of the conflict between non-African powers. While on the one hand France and the United States are strengthening their military relations with some ECOWAS countries (in particular Côte d'Ivoire), on the other hand the three AES members, after expelling Western troops from their country, have established military relations with Russia (see Fides, 6/7/2024).
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The visit to Burkina Faso of Saddam Haftar, the son of General Khalifa Haftar, the "strongman" of Libyan Cyrenaica who has excellent relations with Moscow, could be seen in this light. Saddam Haftar, the commander of the Libyan National Army, arrived in Ouagadougou on July 9, just three days after the proclamation of the Confederation. This gesture was linked by Western observers to Moscow's intention to create a "corridor" under its control stretching from Mali to the Mediterranean coast of Cyrenaica.
