Kenana / Jebel Moya / El Geneina / Nyala / El Fasher / Khartoum — The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) entered its 16th month yesterday. As it continues to escalate and expand, Radio Dabanga takes a look at the impact on Sudanese people and the various areas of control by Sudan's warring parties.
As the scope of military operations expands into most of the country's states, the suffering of citizens is highlighted by extremely high levels of displacement, with over half of Sudanese people facing a hunger crisis and in need of humanitarian aid, the most of any country in the world.
The International Organization for Migration's Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM) reported on June 25 that there are 10,540,215 displaced people in 8,556 locations in 183 localities across all 18 states of Sudan.
It indicated that an estimated 7,720,119 individuals were displaced within Sudan from April 15, 2023, until June, while more than 136,000 people were displaced from Sennar after the RSF took control of it.
The matrix indicated that approximately 2,196,355 people crossed the borders into neighbouring countries since April 15, 2023.
The war has led to thousands of deaths and injuries and a dramatic increase human rights violations across Sudan. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Center (ACLED), more than 6,760 violent incidents and more than 18,760 deaths were recorded in Sudan since the outbreak of the war until July 5.
In June, a report for the Sudanese Transparency and Policy Tracker detailed instances of sexual and gender-based violence (GBV) as tools of terror and ethnic persecution. The Together Against Rape and Sexual Violence campaign has documented 28 new rape cases from May 31 to June 30. 19 women and nine girls, distributed as follows: El Fasher (11), White Nile (8), Northern (6), Khartoum (3). The number of documented cases has reached 451 since April 15, 2023.
Country overview
The war has now spread to 14 of Sudan's 18 states, namely Khartoum, El Gezira, Sennar, the five states of Darfur, the three states of Kordofan, while battles are reported in western El Gedaref, near El Fao town.
Yesterday, RSF anti-aircraft missiles targeted Kenana Airport in White Nile state, and SAF warplanes launched airstrikes on RSF sites in Jebel Moya in Sennar. El Geteina in White Nile state and Hajar El Asal in River Nile state are occupied by the RSF. The RSF has some control of Sennar state, including full control of Singa since June 29.
Only the states of Kassala, Port Sudan, Northern State, and Blue Nile region remain under the full control of the army.
ACLED reported an escalation of fighting between June 1 and July 5, a 20 per cent increase over the previous five weeks. More than 400 incidents of political violence and more than 1,280 deaths between June 1 and July 5. Most of the political violence was recorded in Khartoum and North Darfur states during the reporting period, with 150 and 99 incidents, 246 and 508 deaths reported, respectively.
The centre indicated that 165 battles were recorded, and 143 events such as explosions and remote violence. Most of these battles were related to fighting in Khartoum and North Darfur.
Central Sudan
In central Sudan, El Gezira has been under RSF control since December. The militia also controls El Geteina town in White Nile state. Various towns in White Nile state, still under the control of the SAF, have been targeted by drones over the past two days, after drones, allegedly launched by the RSF, were shot down by the army in Kosti and Kenana last month.
The RSF took control of large parts of Sennar over the past two weeks, including El Dinder in eastern Sennar. ACLED reported an increase in battles in Sennar after July 5, while El Dinder witnessed a noticeable decline in the pace of fighting after it came under RSF control.
Military sources who spoke to Radio Dabanga expected a decrease in the pace of conflict in central Sudan in the coming weeks due to expected heavy rainfall.
Borders of Sudan
The importance of Sennar in southeastern Sudan lies in the fact that it borders four other states, in addition to its borders with South Sudan and Ethiopia, and contributes significantly to agricultural production in Sudan.
The war has approached the borders of five of Sudan's seven countries, namely Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, while Egypt and Eritrea remain out of the range of the conflict.
In West Kordofan, the RSF recently took control of El Meiram after previously taking control of the state capital El Fula. The only remaining SAF base in the state lies in Babanousa, which has been under siege for several months without the RSF making any progress. With the RSF controlling large parts of West Kordofan and Sennar, they now have access to multiple routes to South Sudan.
The fighting has also spread east to the outskirts of El Gedaref, bordering Ethiopia, and the northern border of Blue Nile region, where the RSF allegedly control the Wad El Nil area adjacent to the state.
Darfur
This weekend, the Sudanese Air Force bombed sites in El Geneina and Nyala, the capitals of West and South Darfur respectively, which have been under the control of the RSF since the end of last year.
The RSF reacted in a statement on X that the barrel bombs targeted the El Naseem neighbourhood of El Geneina. In Nyala, the Women's and Maternity Hospital, the main petrol depot, and the offices of the customs police were hit.
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People under siege in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, told Radio Dabanga that the RSF shelled the eastern and southern borders of the city from 12:00 until 14:00. They stopped due to dust storms, followed by rain. The SAF called on the residents of El Salam and El Wehda neighbourhoods of the state capital to return to their homes due to its advance towards the south.
The sources told Radio Dabanga that the army provided weapons to the youth in these two neighbourhoods to defend their homes. All communications networks in El Fasher continue to be cut off, while the Starlink satellite internet devices continue to operate.
Khartoum state
The RSF still controls large parts of Khartoum and Khartoum North (Khartoum Bahri), despite the SAF regaining control of large parts of Omdurman in March. In Omdurman, the army is currently expanding towards Ombadda.
An SAF spokesperson said on Sunday that the army carried out several operations on Saturday in the capital, which resulted in the killing of more than 100 RSF members, wounding dozens, and destroying several combat vehicles.
The SAF also announced that it will attempt to make an opening into El Kadaro and other areas in Khartoum North. The SAF continues to bomb the El Jeili Oil Refinery, north of Khartoum North. It is still reportedly occupied by the RSF.
