The world over, terrorism devastating multiple effects and many consequences are well documented. However, the Sahel long lasting insecurity is an example of its terrorism specificities: more tribal and business rooted and focused than ideological based. That is its mark. Crossing through many independent states, the Sahel band is, east - west, 3.300 km long and, north - south, 1.600 km large. For centuries, it has been and still is largely a "free land" or a region largely off governments 'control.
That open geographical environment is much appreciated by the independent groups as well as the individuals roaming it: freedom of movements to and for all!
Sahel embedded terrorism.
Present in the region, at least since 2002, the Sahel terrorism remains not only active but is rolling southward, from one state to one another, aiming at the Atlantic ocean coastlines. All that despite many military forces operating at all levels: national, bilateral and multinational. Therefore, two questions impose themselves. First, which domestic policies would help the Sahel to recover past stability and thus avoid the fate of countries where structural terrorism has become part of their identity? Second, what the Sahel, its friends and the international community can do to stop the ongoing tragic dynamic?
More than in many violence affected regions, the Sahel has offered a most favorable environment to terrorism where it prospered, deepening its roots and continuously expanding. All under populated vast areas, far away from governments' control, are attractive to all kinds of illegal activities including to terrorism sources of funding. Beyond official maps legality, the Sahel states international borders have no effective reality in particular to the rural cattle raisers and farmers. Two unfriendly eternal neighbors that often, willingly or not, offer a cover to terrorists' movements.
This overall socio political context, a reminder of Afghanistan, Somalia and Yemen but also of today Libya and Sudan, is attractive to most types of illegal activities including terrorism. Much less administered and open to all activities, it is appealing to disgruntled citizen often backed by their tribal communities including its public officials.
Sahel bloody violence aims also at generating and maintaining an anarchy that helps the expansion of illegal traffics and trafficking. Though internationally feared and condemned, terrorism in the Sahel is slowly, but irreversibly, becoming part of the region ordinary life. Indeed it also has imposed itself as a sort of a political opposition confronting inefficient and often discredited governances. A de facto promoter of people free movements and of all kinds of informal trades and exchanges, that terrorism is nowadays deeply rooted throughout the region. Its aim remains to reach and to control, by force or by imitations effects, the Gulfs of Guinea and Benin coastal states.
In these precarious and despairing environments, vast migrations flows are exploding, within the region but increasingly towards the USA and Europe. Closely linked to high demographic growth, anarchist urbanization, insecurity and governments' corrupt practices, national economies are further weakened. Thus, all conditions are met to encourage and even promote lasting migrants' flows: higher demography growth, weaker economies, exclusion on ethnic or political bases, armed violence, etc. Even, within security forces themselves, younger soldiers are attracted by these massive migrations trends and thus joining in the move. About 8 million migrants are estimated to be in the Sahel out of 25 million in the continent.
In that context, terrorism is stronger, day after day, within the Sahel. Continued climate change, with off seasons' droughts and rains and threatened coastlines, are only aggravating the security situation.
These overall insecurity drivers are either ignored or not considered as serious threats. Which they are. Promoting true good governance in particular fighting corruption, modernizing the security sector and ensuring effective security cooperation between neighboring states should be receiving active priorities.
An effective tripartite cooperation between Europe - Maghreb and West and Central African states - has become a humanitarian and security must to all three Regions. Its implementing should be their common priority to help face an undying terrorism. Now, more than ten years old, Sahel terrorism constitutes a deep and lasting threat to their economic and human development policies. That is also true for their relations with Europe, the US and soon with the Gulf states.
Addressing Sahel undying terrorism.
For over eleven years, Sahel Sahara vast area is where terrorism throve, deepening its roots and expanding south towards both the Gulfs of Guinea and Benin. Worse for all, it has transmuted into a most profitable business under a militant religious banner. Local and external armies have been able to combat it with technical success but limited lasting political results. Indeed, unless it leads to a durable political stability, military victories will not end armed conflicts. That is precisely the Sahel current dilemma.
Affected governments, along with most observers, agree on the reality of the nexus: terrorism - organized crime. The connection, between terrorists' expanding illegal economies and most governments' corrupt practices, is increasingly with transnational dimensions. The "three C": cooperation, coexistence, convergence between the two is unfortunately an intricate Sahel reality. A reality largely based on the strong unofficial coalition between "three T": transnational crime, terrorism, tribalism. The swelling strength, sensitivity and complexity, in particular of these three C and three T, are presently beyond national governments' military capacities. Worse, they also are often outside international partners' expectations and understanding. These deep and widespread social distresses, subsequent to terrorism but feeding it, should be ended. Unless fixed, their impacts will remain destructive of the countries very viability.
At the same time, climate vulnerability increases throughout the Sahel including its coastal states where a number of them are under the sea level. That important issue is yet to be exposed and rightly addressed. It is hoped that Senegal new government call to respect coastlines and to stop its destruction will show effective results and to serve as a tangible example to the region.
Terrorism expansion has also had devastating effects on agriculture and thus on revenues in particular of women of rural areas. Still, water scarcity and neglect of its management are often sources of populations despair. Even when available, it is often a permanent source of instability due to related conflicts between rural populations: farmers versus cattle owners, often from different ethnic origins. That old antagonism aggravates further the security situation for all. Worse, these volatile and often violent contexts encourage parallel or informal administrations, most helpful to terrorism entrenchment. Thus, its representatives become "available to addressing and resolve local tribes concerns".
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That is part of the often ignored Sahel increasing "retribalisation". Recruitments of terrorism fighters as well the enlistment of migrations candidates to the US and Europe are tribally or ethnically funded. Rural youth travels to the capital cities are often first stops before crossing borders to overseas destinations. One perverse result of these situations is that the more they last, the more they become "business opportunities" - political as well as economic - for many social and political actors.
As long as these intrinsic situations remain ignored or improperly addressed by national governments, international organizations and NGO's, security in the Sahel would only worsen. Status quo policies help terrorism to be deeply embedded. Armed violence with attacks on national and foreign citizens and destruction of vital infrastructures are its consequences not its causes. Worse, they also perpetuate an image and a reality of well entrenched blind violence in the Sahel.
In fine: what next? Is the recent visit to Turkey of former Niger president Youssoufou Mahmoudou, successfully followed in Niamey by a high level ministerial delegation from Ankara, announcing new era of security policy and development cooperation in the Sahel? Or a new cold war era in the Sahel?
Still, the deeply embedded armed violence or Islamists' rebellion, closely associated to the Sahel, is a destructive reality. The more it lasts, as it now does, the more it is time to ask the question: is the Sahel embedded violence due only to terrorism?
Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, president www.centre4s
