The Wagner Group has witnessed one of their heaviest losses in Mali: Several dozen fighters reportedly were killed or caputured by Tuareg separatist militants. Experts fear Mali's retaliation against Russian mercenaries.
Russian mercenaries associated with the Wagner Group have suffered one of their heaviest losses in West Africa in Mali: Several dozen fighters were apparently killed or captured by Tuareg separatist militants.
Ukrainian intelligence services have in the meantime declared that they were involved in the deadly ambush, according to several media reports, among them the daily British newspaper, The Guardian.
Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Ukrainian military intelligence service GUR, was reported to have claimed on the Ukrainian broadcast channel Suspilne that the GUR had provided the Tuareg rebels with the "necessary information" to conduct a successful operation against the Russians.
Wagner confirms deadly events in Mali
In a rare statement on Monday, the Wagner Group confirmed its battle defeat: The group said that its fighters had fought alongside Malian soldiers near Tinzaouaten in the north of the country, and had suffered heavy losses, including the death of their commander.
Malian separatists meanwhile claimed a "resplendent victory" against the Malian army and its Russian allies on July 28 following three days of "intense fighting" in Tinzaouaten near the Algerian border.
The Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists of the Groupe de Soutien a l'Islam et aux Musulmans (GSIM) claimed to have booby-trapped the same convoy, killing 50 Russians and 10 Malians.
Military government denies presence of Wagner in Mali
Russian mercenaries have been fighting with the Malian army since 2021 against all the various rebel movements in the country, including Islamist terrorist militias as well as the Tuareg. Those groups have been waging insurgencies arcoss the Sahel -- both joinly and individually -- region since 2012.
Mali's military seized power in two consecutive coups in 2020 and 2021, with the declared aim of focusing on stabilzing the country -- as highlighted in these most recent clashes.
According to a statement from the army's general of staff, "the FAMA (Armed Forces of Mali) unit was surrounded by a coalition of Sahelian terrorist forces and fierce fighting broke out before reinforcements arrived."
The military claims that the Russian troops present in the country are not part of the Wagner mercenary group but rather work as training staff, helping local troops with equipment bought from Russia.
But experts believe they are indeed members of Wagner. Me Mamadou Ismaila Konate, former justice minister of Mali, told DW that the Russians in captured or killed in battle "are attached to Wagner."
To Konate, what matters is not the effect these events will have on Russians but on his fellow Malians:
Mali has taken a real blow, he says, adding that retaliation is sure to follow: "I fear, that this response will not take care to distinguish between armed combatants or unarmed combatants and the general population," Konate explained, stressing that the collateral effects of the military's response are going to be enormous.
Growing insurgent threat
Konate fears that the violence could spiral out of control, with so many insurgent groups being active in the country, The Tuareg in particular are of concern, as they challenge the legitimacy of the Malian national authority, he explains.
Tuareg insurgent groups were only recently expelled from their traditional stronghold of Kidal by the Malian army, which forced them to move further east to Tinzaouaten, located on the border with Algeria. In an effort to drive the fighters further out, the army encountered resistance, resulting in this heavy loss of life.
Konate highlights that on the ground, it is difficult for the military to distinguish between hardliner insurgent groups and smaller factions, which do not have the means to engage in a war with the government.
And while smaller insurgent movements lack the funds to even buy weapons, big Tuareg groupings like the Alliance of Armed and Tuareg-dominated Separatist Groups (CSP-DPA) continues to grow.
"If you look at the intensity of the funds used on the ground, you can assume that they are not alone," commented Konate on the growing influence that outsiders also seem to be trying to have on such separatists, as demonstrated with Ukraine's reported involvement.
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Proxy battles in Mali
In addition to receiving funding and support, groups like the CSP-DPA also benefit greatly from collecting the spoils of war in such scenarios: in the recent ambush, they claim to have confiscated many weapons belonging to the Malian armed forces and the Russian Wagner militia, which will now be used for further attacks.
Meanwhile, it is also unclear where exactly all outside influences on insurgent groups in Mali exactly originate from, and whether most threats are not perhaps from somewhere that is closer to home: According to Konate, neighboring Algeria has traditionally always supported peace processes between Mali and Tuareg groups -- until recently.
However, with growing disputes between the two states, which Konate says have led to the recall of respective ambassadors already, Malian authorities are also taking a closer look now at their own backyard.
Adaptation from French by Martina Schwikowski
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson
