Public protest has long been a powerful tool for social and political change, serving as a collective expression of dissent and a demand for action.
The reasons why individuals join protests are complex. Motivations can vary from personal grievances and a sense of injustice to social identity and solidarity with a cause. Collective identity, where individuals perceive themselves as part of a larger group with shared goals, is crucial in mobilising participants. Emotions such as anger, fear, hope, and moral outrage can drive people to take to the streets and sustain their commitment to the cause. While these feelings can spark public action, they are often insufficient to sustain the action and maximise gains. It takes organisation and discipline to sustain it.
Effective organisation is crucial for the success of any protest movement. Leadership provides direction and strategy, while political education, social networks, and effective communication, especially in the digital age, are essential for spreading information, coordinating actions, and maintaining momentum. The use of social media has transformed modern protests, allowing for rapid dissemination of information and facilitating large-scale mobilisation. However, this does not eliminate the need for leadership and coordination.
The Nigerian hunger protest is part of this long trajectory of collective action for change. The protest, organised mainly by disparate groups and largely virtual, has gained significant traction due to the growing discontent against the escalating cost of living, which many attribute to the government's economic policies. The movement, driven by young people, has gained considerable momentum and shown remarkable resilience, particularly under the hashtag #EndBadGovernance. This online activism reflects widespread dissatisfaction with escalating living costs and the government's economic policies.
Historically, Nigeria has seen numerous protests, typically led by organised groups such as student movements, labour movements, or pro-democracy advocates, especially during military rule. However, the current protest wave is notable for its virtual nature, lacking a single organising entity but resonating deeply across various segments of society.
The protest, which started on August 1, 2024, is expected to continue for at least a week. It is part of a series of similar movements, including significant protests in Kenya, that have inspired Nigerian activists and attracted international attention. The Nigerian government has responded to the protest by using various strategies to discourage participation. These strategies include threats, subterfuge, arrests and the use of firearms against unarmed protesters and restriction of movement in some states.
Despite the government's attempts to stifle it, the movement has already achieved significant successes. It has compelled the government to acknowledge several critical issues, including poverty, inflation, corruption, and the harsh impacts of recent economic policies.
While the President's address may have been disappointing, as he recognised the broader issues but did not offer concrete solutions, it highlights a disconnect between the government and the protesters. Discussing past actions in response to protests is preposterous; people are protesting precisely because they are dissatisfied with those actions and policies and are seeking change. By not offering or responding directly to their demands, the government's stance comes across as, "I have heard you, but I don't agree with you," which is insensitive and counterproductive in such a volatile situation. Addressing the protesters' concerns directly and proposing tangible solutions would be a more effective approach to defusing the tension.
State of emergency in Northern Nigeria
The violent protests experienced in many states in northern Nigeria, like the two decades of insurgency, years of violent ethnoreligious conflicts, and persistent banditry, are undeniable symptoms of a larger crisis. This is a typical case of societal collapse--a broken society. The social fabric of most communities has crumbled under the weight of years of misgovernance, corruption, deepening intergenerational poverty, and social exclusion. In essence, societal glues, the elements that hold a society together, fostering social cohesion, stability, and a sense of community, like shared values, norms, traditions, institutions, and practices, have been seriously eroded by politics, economic inequality, urbanisation, militarisation and poverty.
The rise in violent crimes in northern Nigeria cannot be fully understood through a criminal lens alone. There are three main driving forces behind these crimes: grievances, greed, and opportunities. This form of rebellion relies on these three factors. Banditry, for instance, in its classical sense, is not only a crime against its victims but also a rebellion against the established order.
The harsh realities faced by the people in northern Nigeria have generated immense anger towards the state and the ruling class. Escalating poverty, unemployment, social exclusion, and inequality have fuelled widespread resentment against those perceived to be responsible for their plight. This growing poverty has also led to rapid population growth, creating a large number of uneducated, unemployed, and underemployed youth who are increasingly willing to take up arms against those they see as their oppressors.
Politicians often blame the opposition for sponsoring this violence, but this is not necessarily accurate. Many of these young people do not need financial incentives to take up arms; they need opportunities, and their frustration and desperation drive their actions. Nevertheless, political rhetoric can amplify their anger and frustration, arming them with ideas and motivations to act out, even without direct sponsorship. The volatile combination of socio-economic deprivation and unaddressed grievances creates fertile ground for unrest and violence.
Unmanaged public demonstrations often present significant opportunities for this demographic. Protests are perceived as a suspension or collapse of public order, where anything goes, and crimes can be committed without repercussions. The actions of these individuals may not seem rational to outsiders, but they provide momentary satisfaction as they feel they are striking back at their perceived oppressors.
Consider the man who climbed a traffic light in one city attempting to pull it down, or those who broke road concrete to remove iron rods, or even the vandalisation of the NCC training centre and the burning of the Kano Printing Press, one of the oldest presses in northern Nigeria. While some individuals may benefit from stolen items like chairs and computers, the disparity between their personal economic situation and the items they've stolen makes them easy targets for arrest. However, in these moments of opportunity, what matters most to them is hurting the system, even if it ultimately harms them further.
Even those who broke into warehouses were not necessarily driven by immediate hunger; it was grievances, the opportunity provided by the protest, and greed. To be clear, there are starving people who lack the energy to lift a bag of rice or struggle in a crowd of energetic youths for a carton of noodles. But for many, the driving force behind their actions is the chance to express their grievances and seize an opportunity, even if it comes at a personal cost.
For this reason, protests of this nature require effective leadership and coordination. Protesting against the prevailing conditions without clear leadership and coordination is a recipe for anarchy, as evidenced in many states in northern Nigeria. While social media is highly effective for mobilisation, it does not inherently create leaders. Effective protests need structured guidance to channel collective grievances into constructive action and to prevent chaos.
While we have seen videos of the reprehensible actions of security agencies firing live bullets directly at protesters, it is crucial to recognise that the development indicators and demographics in northern Nigeria are inherently violence-prone. It is easy to criminalise this category of youth, as we have seen with the handling of insurgency and banditry in most parts of the northwest and northeast regions. However, we must also acknowledge that there is a significant brewing rebellion that could further exacerbate the region's fragile situation.
The flying of the Russian flag in Kano and later in Kaduna and Maiduguri is part of this rebellion--a decision to further undermine the system that empowers their oppressors, namely democracy (read, bad governance). The narrative from neighbouring countries like Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali drives this sentiment.
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There is a popular but false belief that the economic and security conditions of the people in these Sahelian countries under military rule, allegedly backed by Russia, are improving. The understanding of these angry youths is that the West, which is assumed to support democracy and the government, will be hurt by just seeing the Russian flags, and, second, it will create an impression of popular demand for an alternative to the West.
The presence of Russian flags in these protests is not just a call for an alternative to the Western-backed policies of the IMF and the World Bank, as expressed by one of the protesters in a viral video. It is also a demand for Russia as a political and ideological alternative to the West, particularly given the geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia. If it were simply about economic alternatives, they would have raised the Chinese flag--China has a much larger economy and more significant trade relations with Nigeria.
The demographic structure of northern Nigeria reflects an unhealthy society; for those who understand the problem, northern Nigeria is in a state of emergency. The focus should be on social development issues such as education, health services, enhanced productivity and increased social investment to address the immediate challenges of poverty. Unfortunately, politicians are only interested in mega projects such as flyover bridges, airports, luxury villas for governors and other egoistic white elephant projects.
Something surely needs to change; this situation cannot continue. These violent escalations should be seen as a continuum in a spectrum of violence that has rapidly consumed northern Nigeria in the last three decades - call it ethnoreligious violence, insurgency, or banditry; the drivers are more or less the same: grievances, opportunities and greed.
Dr Abdu is an Abuja-based political scientist and civil society leader
