PREMIUM TIMES believes that as we monitor and forge our position in the ongoing geo-political transformation, Nigeria's ambition must be to retain its strategic autonomy derived from non-alignment with the contending forces.
The angry nationwide hunger protest in the country assumed a curious twist in the hoisting of Russia's flag by youths in some states in the North. It is not that alone, there were brazen calls for military takeover of the government. There is more to this than usual, given that some of those involved appear underage - according some of the pictures published in the media - and possibly oblivious of the consequences of the campaign they were supporting. Could there be a more subtle but organised group pushing them in that direction in the background?
Nevertheless, their action is treasonable, reckless and unacceptable. All well-meaning Nigerians should condemn the advocacy for a military takeover. As a nation, we have travelled this famished road before with telling consequences. States where this ominous drivel was observed are Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi and Nasarawa. As expected, the authorities have been jolted into action, evident in arrest of several persons in this regard, including seven Polish nationals living in Kano.
President Bola Tinubu met with the Service Chiefs last week, during which the Chief of Defence Staff, Christopher Musa, admitted the activism for a coup was discussed; so did the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, when he briefed members of the Diplomatic Corps thereafter. He added that Nigeria will not spare anyone within or outside its shores implicated in fanning the embers of disorder under any guise. Military Defence Chiefs in the ECOWAS region also held a crucial meeting in Abuja, which ended with a resolution to remain loyal to civil authorities and preserve constitutional democracy.
Some commentators argue that the controversial flag being flown was not necessarily foreign, but that of Nigeria's military that shares the Red/Blue/White hues of Vladimir Putin's Russia. However, what is not in doubt is that both insignias are emblematic of the emerging anti-democratic impulse seeking to return Nigeria to authoritarianism.
President Tinubu condemned the military-takeover campaign in his 4 July nationwide broadcast on the hunger protest. He advised Nigerians to reject such anti-democratic antics after their country's 25 years of unbroken democracy. He said, "...do not let the enemies of democracy use you to promote an unconstitutional agenda that will set us back on our democratic journey", with the emphasis that the country should go, "FORWARD EVER, BACKWARD NEVER!"
The CDS, General Musa has repeatedly described calls for coups as a treasonable offence. The State Security Service (SSS) and the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), therefore, have their jobs cut out. The masterminds of these undemocratic tendencies using proxies masquerading as protesters must be sought out and punished according to our laws. A tailor in Kano used in the flags mass-production has since been arrested.
We feel strongly that a hands-on approach in security intelligence gathering would have detected this weird dimension to the protest at its inchoate or planning stage, and thus nipped it in the bud. The #EndBadGovernance movement and its allies had served a 30-day notice to the government. It is a failure of intelligence not to have exploited this long notice to stop the evil actors in their strides. It will be unpardonable if a similar laxity is recorded again in unravelling the big masquerades behind that felonious and unacceptable behaviour.
The Russian Embassy in Abuja has since dissociated its country from the flag-waving occurrence. It said the "Federation as well as any Russian officials... (did) not coordinate them (the protesters) in any way," just as it expressed its respect for Nigeria's democracy.However, a young protester could be considered to have given away Niger Republic as possibly implicated when PREMIUM TIMES probed to know why he used the flag to protest. He explained: "Just like (in) Niger, we want Russia to come to Nigeria." With a plausible Sahelian lead like this, and the arrests made so far, the authorities should not toy with the matter and put it to greater scrutiny. A deep diplomatic canyon has existed between Nigeria and Niger since President Mohammed Bazoum's ouster from power by the military on 23 July, 2023.
Impelled by the inner resolve to defend democracy in the sub-region, rather than punishment, the Nigerian government unleashed a raft of measures against the putschists, with land border closure and cut in electricity supply, which unnerved them. The Tinubu-led ECOWAS compounded their woes by freezing the country's assets in foreign banks, banned flights to the country, and gave a seven-day ultimatum to restore constitutional democracy by returning Bazoum to power, or risk a military intervention. Ironically, all this toughened, rather than weakened Niger, as its new-found allies within the region and outside as a bulwark against external aggression has evinced.
Nigeria's Sahelian neighbours - Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger - have since established a confederation known as AES (Alliance of Sahel States) based on the shared values of military rule, the dismantling of French and American neo-colonialism, and an increasingly anti-ECOWAS and anti-democratic agenda. The Confederation is therefore a potential threat to Nigeria's interest and our security agencies should thoroughly investigate the flag shows and calls for military rule in this regard. At the same time, Nigeria should not forget that its threat of military action against Niger turned a friendly ally into an adversary. In the long term, good relations with our neighbours is in our strategic interest.
Putin's embrace of these military regimes, while fortifying them with military advisers and equipment, markedly extends his geo-political contests with the West to our backyard. Our patch of the world is being drawn into a battle between the West, led by the United States, and the new BRICS formation, led by China and Russia. The war in Ukraine has come into West Africa following Ukraine's recent admission that it provided intelligence and logistic support to terrorists combating the Malian State. Meanwhile, our Sahelian neighbours are receiving military support from mercenaries of the Wagner Group and Russian soldiers, just as French and American troops have been chased out of the AES Confederation.
Niger's military strong man, Abdourahamane Tiani, rode to power on the crest of an escalating cost of living crisis and Nigerien protesters waved Russian flags in Niamey on 30 July, 2023 in solidarity. A former Director-General of Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Bola Akinterinwa, is of the view that the so-called "Nigerians" waving the Russian flag in the north are largely citizens of Niger. He explained: "The Russian flag is a notice to the Tinubu government to be more conscious. It is a warning."
It might also be the case that some Nigerians who associate President Tinubu's policies with the Bretton Woods institutions under the IMF might be calling on the Russians to help with a coup that could lead to a radical policy shift. Seven states - including Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Jigawa, Borno and Yobe - have boundaries with this ECOWAS breakaway neighbour. It is a reality that poses grave security and socio-economic challenges to Nigeria. With porous land borders, along this Sahelian region, it is difficult to know who is really a Nigerian. This is a nut Tinubu's government should crack.
PREMIUM TIMES believes that as we monitor and forge our position in the ongoing geo-political transformation, Nigeria's ambition must be to retain its strategic autonomy derived from non-alignment with the contending forces. This is justification for us to join the BRICS formation so that we are not solidly in the "Western" camp alone.
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The storm of the 10 days of the #EndBadGovernanceCampaign might have wilted but hunger remains an existential challenge. Its fury is still innate and could explode yet again if government remains adamant. Food and headline inflation rates at 40.8 per cent and 34.19 per cent respectively and the 70 per cent crash in naira's value are killing Nigerians. It is for these reasons that the protesters want the old fuel pump price returned.
However, some prominent Nigerians have enjoined protesters to accept Tinubu's dialogue overture. This is a rational step to take, rather than the threat of another round of protests by the #TakeITBack group.
Protest, we admit, is legitimate in a democratic society. But it loses that legitimacy when it mutates into riots, the destruction of public and private properties and wanton killing of persons. The last protest had these disturbing attributes perpetrated by both rogue protesters and security agencies. The police killed and tortured innocent Nigerians. The Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun, claimed the police did not kill anyone during the protest. But Amnesty International said no fewer than 13 persons were killed by security agents.
A PREMIUM TIMES' reporter's car, for instance, was riddled with bullets at the Moshood Abiola National Stadium, Abuja, a location the protesters were confined to. This official criminality and the brazen attempt to cover it up should stop.
Nigeria needs a redirection, which will make its economy work for all. Only good governance can provide that sort of compass. The quest for this was the trigger for the hunger uprising. If 133 million Nigerians were identified as multi-dimensionally poor in 2022 without the removal of fuel subsidy and gross naira devaluation, the number of Nigerians in this poverty radar with the present eerie economic climate should unsettle any right-thinking government.
