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In a subregion with increasing political and social instability, Senegal seemingly bucked the trend with the country's latest round of successful elections this spring. Earlier, in February, Macky Sall, who led Senegal from 2012-24, seemingly didn't appear to want to vacate power. On February 3, he unilaterally postponed the country's planned February 25 elections. Sall framed the decision as ensuring credibility of the election process. However, given some of his political manoeuvres in recent years, many argued that it was his last grasp at trying to maintain power. The backlash was swift and sustained and some argued that his decision created a constitutional crisis.
Senegalese citizens take voting very seriously. In a subregion of countries with many instances of contested elections, political instability, and numerous coup d'états, Senegal has peacefully passed power. Certainly, there have been protests, opposition parties and leaders. Civil discourse is widespread and Senegal has proved to be a consummate site of democracy and citizens are fervent about using the vote to facilitate political change. However, despite this longue durée of democratic political transfer in the recent years, Macky Sall seemed to be further whittling back some of Senegal's democratic traditions. Sall seemed increasingly threatened by opposition leaders and imprisoned some including the current president Bassirou Diomaye and the prime minister, Ousmane Sonko.
Despite some wrinkles, Senegal has never experienced a coup d'état and the transfer of power has been relatively peaceful. In a world of increasing global instability, Senegal is an example of maintaining democracy amid competing interests.
Power shifts
When Macky Sall was elected president in 2012, the majority of Senegal's citizens were hopeful. The outgoing president Abdoulaye Wade had overstayed. Like Sall's recent attempts to maintain power, Wade seemed reticent to relinquish power. Wade went as far as to try to change the constitution to allow him a third term. He also sought to create a political dynasty by trying to ensure that his then increasingly unpopular son follow him. His son, Karim Wade, was found guilty of embezzlement and other illegal activity and would subsequently undergo two prison stints during Sall's rule.
In recent decades, one trend holds true for Senegalese elections, Senegalese tend to support opposition leaders who they believe would be able to usher in real change and who are perceived to be anti-corruption. In fact, Abdoulaye Wade had been an opposition leader for years. He lived in Point E, a prominent neighbourhood, was a lawyer and as some said: "had his own money." The premise was that he wouldn't support corruption and need to steal because he was a man of relative means. Sopi, a Wolof word meaning change, was his party's slogan for the 2000 election. Wade was elected president in spring 2000 after a runoff election with the standing president Abdou Diouf. Diouf had been president for 20 years. He was the successor to Senegal's founding president, Léopold Sédar Senghor who led from Senegal's independence in 1960 until 1980. Wade's win in 2000 was significant as both an opposition party win but also one that disrupted the forty-year post-colonial rule of the Parti Socialiste (PS). The mood in Dakar, Senegal for the deuxième tour, or second round of votes for the 2000 election, was electric. I was able to witness the excitement firsthand when I visited Senegal during this period. From the ground, it seemed first that Abdou Diouf was ready to move on and second, that the majority of Senegal's citizens were excited to usher in a new political chapter with Abdoulaye Wade and they did.
Similarly, I was in Senegal in 2011, when tensions rose about Wade trying to seemingly hold onto power directly or indirectly through his son. In January 2011, the Y'en a Marre movement was created to protest the perceived problems with Wade's presidency. I spent two months in Senegal that summer and frankly, in my visits to date, I'd never seen that level of disruption, rancour, and unease in Dakar. In fact, I recall telling one of my friends that I'd never seen anything like it. She responded that you haven't because "we've never seen anything like it." Since the mid-1990s, I've travelled to and at times, lived in Senegal - often for months and sometimes more than a year. In summer 2011, it was the first time that I'd felt physically unsafe in Senegal. The protests were broad - with some vandalism, burning of tyres, cars, and other objects. Also large groups of young people would create impromptu protests in different parts of the city. One day, I was travelling with a young family member from a visit on the VDN near the headquarters of Wade's PDS party. But once we stepped outside and I looked to the left, I realized that it could escalate. Traffic on the VDN was blocked. We walked in the other direction to try and catch a taxi at a nearby thoroughfare. These events following Wade's attempts to maintain power in 2011 seemed to foreshadow events in 2023 and 2024. In fact, under the last months of Sall's rule, things appeared seemingly more precarious than Wade's tenure. Three people were confirmed killed during the protests this year with others injured during as protestors opposed Macky Sall's attempted power grab.
Internal politics
The initial prevailing sentiment for President Bassirou Diomaye Faye's presidential term is hopeful. Certainly, he is facing some early criticism, for example, the dearth of women in his cabinet. However, he is in the honeymoon period of his presidency and it remains to be seen how he will govern. To date, President Faye has fleshed out his initial presidential cabinet, pledged to fight corruption, tackle economic issues, and created a new office of religious affairs.
Faye does have some big issues facing him. Certainly, the pledged economic reform is important. The state has many issues to tackle including high employment rates, low wages, and high inflation. In addition, the country needs to continue to maintain some balance in social, education, and health infrastructure investment. Of course, too, Faye's administration needs to help calm some of the lingering tensions that resulted from interruption of Senegal regular 2024 elections. Faye has a chance, too, to work with Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, on future cabinet updates that provide more ministerial diversity, including more women cabinet officials. Some of Senegal's major natural resources include a long-established fishing industry and new oil and gas sources. In recent decades, local fisherman have been pushed out of the industry due to large scale fishing contracts favouring European and Asian countries. These contracts have led to some overfishing and made it dangerous and less profitable for locals to compete. Faye has already proposed to review oil and gas contracts to see if they should be renegotiated to benefit Senegal's population. Similarly, the growing fishing crisis will likely demand some state intervention.
Regional shifts
Regionally, in West Africa and the Sahel, the Senegalese state faces a number of challenges in rising insecurity including the role of non-state actors, new state actors in the region. One of the Macky Sall's strengths was to maintain security against external threats. Insecurity in the Sahel continues to rise and there have been a spate of coup d'états, contested elections, and growing political instability in the region. Additionally, during the past two decades non-state actors and militias, including AQIM, Boko Haram, ISIS and others have operated in the region. The trafficking of people - often as migrants some who become forced laboirers -has also increased. In addition to the trafficking of people and arms by some of these groups and others, there is trafficking of drugs: illicit ones like heroin, cocaine and cannabis but also pharmaceutical drugs trafficking has risen in recent decades. Finally, too, the region is seeing a rise in the involvement of new states - primarily Russia. Officially, Russia has engaged more with the continent through Russia-Africa summits, visits by Sergey Lavrov, and meetings with Putin at the Kremlin. In fact, Macky Sall, as chairperson of the African Union and Moussa Faki Mahamat were invited to the Kremlin in 2022. Russia has close ties with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in the subregion. Unofficially, Wagner has increased activity in West Africa and the Sahel, including in Chad. In fact, in late May, Faye visited both Mali and Burkino Faso. It will be interesting to see what role he'll play on security matters in the Sahel.
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Futures
Senegal's pivot from a potential protracted political crisis to a peaceful transfer of power is a lesson for the continent and for the West. This year, a record number of elections are taking place across the globe. It is expected that some will proceed smoothly and others might be more fraught. Will other countries, including those in the West, fare as well as in the circumstances that Senegal's electorate fared this spring? Democracy prevails in Senegal and it continues to provide a model for other countries. It is imperative that Bassirou Faye and his cabinet continue these traditions while also navigating internal and external pressures.
Donna A. Patterson is Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of History, Political Science, and Philosophy at Delaware State University. She is also a Senior Fellow at the Delaware State University's Global Institute for Equity, Inclusion, and Civil Rights. Patterson is the author of Pharmacy in Senegal: Gender, Healing, and Entrepreneurship. She is currently working on two larger projects on transnational drug consumption and public health and on the West African Ebola epidemic.
