Karl Marx once told us that history repeats itself, first as a tragedy and second as a farce. George Santanya put it differently.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". Does history repeat itself in Nigeria? Let's examine recent developments. General Ibrahim Babangida came to power in August 1985 and in 1986, he launched an ambitious economic policy known as the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP).
The core thrust of SAP was to diversify the economy away from hydrocarbon; create an industrial base that relies on domestic raw materials; deregulate the economy and liberalize the foreign exchange market. Privatization and commercialization were also its integral components.
At the first auction of the dollar at the newly introduced foreign exchange market (FEM) in late 1986, the Naira plummeted from 0.8 Naira to the dollar to N4.0 to the dollar. It was the first official devaluation of the Nigerian currency since it was introduced and adopted as our legal tender on January 1, 1973. The steady depreciation of the Naira against the dollar and other major international currencies under SAP brought considerable hardships to businesses and people, just as we have today. Raw materials and manufacturing inputs became too expensive to import, leading to factory closures; massive layoffs and departures of foreign-owned companies. Notable foreign businesses like Pfizer; Hoechst AG and the Dutch electronics giant, Philips left the country, similar to what's going on now.
Nigerians were groaning as SAP bit harder and harder and there were complaints and grumblings all over the country, just as today, as local businesses were closing in droves. Meanwhile, the military top brass in government continuously asked people to bear with the government, make sacrifices and tighten their belts, but at the same time, they were wallowing in comfort and luxury. In 1989, violent riots broke out spontaneously in Lagos, Ibadan and some parts of the country.
Tagged "SAP riots", the protests spread rapidly, but there were no known organizers or leaders. There was no social media then, but words moved around quickly through the whisper network.
Suddenly, a huge rumour emerged that Ebony magazine, the American celebrity magazine, had published an interview with Dr. Tai Solarin in which the social critic and human rights crusader had reportedly divulged that a huge amount of dollars had been found in General Babangida's foreign account. Nigerians rushed and bought off copies of the magazines, but it turned out that there was no such interview in it.
The military government went into overdrive, trying to manage the crisis. The government reached out to the editors of the publication in Illinois, Chicago, and convinced them to issue a disclaimer. The magazine obliged, stating categorically that no such interview was carried. But the damage has been done. Mind you, Ebony has before then been enjoying generous advertising support from the government. Founded in November 1945, Ebony focuses on chronicling and promoting the lives and contributions of African Americans in the US. It used to be very popular in Nigeria, together with Time and Newsweek. It is an incredible turn of events that these magazines are no longer circulating in Nigeria due to the foreign exchange crisis which started with SAP.
The Babangida regime was rattled by SAP riots, just as the Tinubu administration was unsettled by the recent protests tagged "End Bad Governance Protests". The following year (1990), there was a bloody military coup attempt to decapitate the IBB junta, hastening the movement of the nation's capital to Abuja in 1991. Now, what are the striking similarities between the two epochs and what historical lessons can we draw?
First: The technocrats in the SAP era persistently assured us that the programme was the only panacea Nigeria had. "There is no alternative to SAP" was the common refrain. IBB's first Finance Minister, Dr. Idika Kalu Idika, who was later succeeded by Dr. SP Chu Okongwu, was an ardent SAP advocate. Both were Ivy League-trained economists and IMF and World Bank-honed technocrats. They preached and believed in the wonders of neoliberal economic theories. Complementing their efforts was Chief Olu Falae, who was the Secretary to the Military Government. A Yale alumnus, he was also an unrepentant SAP apostle. Together, they sold SAP to Nigerians like proselytizing clergies, telling us that SAP would work. They asked Nigerians to continue to make sacrifices, bore the pains and tighten their belts.
Today, the two main technocrats in the Tinubu administration, Wale Edun and Yemi Cardoso as well as other professionals are busy assuring us that the Renewed Hope hardships would soon fade away, to give way to an era of economic boom. I don't know if anybody believes them, but selling hope is always the easiest part of governance in this country, and more often than not, the technocrats are the major salesmen.
Second: Just as IBB, the Tinubu administration is bent on pushing through his agenda, no matter the agonies. The withdrawal of fuel subsidy and the massive depreciation of the Naira last year have wrought the severest economic crisis this country has ever seen. In his eight-year rule, IBB withdrew fuel subsidy three times, (there were calls for "SAP to have a human face"), but the hunger, desperation and despondency in the population were not this brutal. Or is my memory failing me?
Third: This is not the first time there's been an exodus of foreign firms from the country due to economic meltdown. By the very nature of their operations, these foreign businesses rely solely on imported raw materials, imported packages and imported inputs - without the slightest effort at backward integration - to conduct their businesses in Nigeria. To that extent, they are prone to serious exchange rate risks that crystallize whenever there are some external shocks in the economy. They are not here to stay because they are fair-weather friends (assuming you can even call them friends). It's therefore not a surprise that they're taking off again. I'm rather surprised that Nigerian investors are not moving quickly to take their places.
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Four: As SAP bit harder and harder, IBB was spending heavily and lavishly to maintain his stay in office. But in those days, the official vehicle of the Head of State was the Peugeot 504 salon car! I don't know what they drive these days, but with recent acquisitions, President Tinubu is indulging in the most lavish lifestyle unseen since 1999. New presidential aircraft; new presidential limousines; new residence for the Vice President, frequent foreign medical trips, etc; and the citizens are told to keep sacrificing!
Looking back, historians believe that SAP would have succeeded but for the pervasive corruption of that era. What will they write about Renewed Hope?
Etim, a public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja.
