Addis Abeba — The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), once a powerful party in Ethiopian politics, is now grappling with severe internal divisions that jeopardize the stability of the region and impede its recovery efforts.
These tensions have escalated to a critical level, with profound consequences for a population already burdened by two years of conflict, displacement, and humanitarian crises.
Despite the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, internal party disputes and unresolved issues surrounding the restoration of its legal status have made the situation worse.
The division within the TPLF has deepened in recent weeks, resulting in a power struggle between two factions, one led by Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD), chairperson of the party, and the other by Getachew Reda, president of the Tigray interim administration.
This internal conflict has intensified, with each faction attempting to delegitimize the other. As a result, the region, already grappling with a humanitarian crisis, has been further destabilized by ongoing conflict, limited access to essential services, and the displacement of millions. These divisions have severely hindered efforts to address these challenges, fostering an atmosphere of uncertainty and fear.
While some scholars view the internal divisions within the TPLF as a common feature in the party's political history, the people of Tigray are deeply concerned about the potential ramifications of this dispute.
A resident of Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, speaking anonymously, expressed regret over the leadership's fragmentation in the aftermath of the region's devastating events.
"However, we remain confident that the security forces will maintain neutrality and allow the people the freedom to support either faction, should the leadership fail to resolve their differences peacefully," he stated.
Another resident of Mekelle, speaking anonymously to Addis Standard, remarked that the political leadership in Tigray has failed to grasp the reality that "their survival depends on resolving their differences peacefully."
"The TPLF is currently at a critical juncture," he emphasized. "Failure to reach a consensus will inevitably lead the people of Tigray into a catastrophic situation."
Internal feud intensifies
Scholars and opposition party leaders have also voiced deep concern over the TPLF leadership's failure to reconcile their differences, warning that these ongoing disputes may further aggravate the region's already severe economic, social, and political crises.
The future of the TPLF depends on the leaders' ability to resolve their differences." Gebremedhin Yalew, a researcher and lecturer at Mekelle University
Gebremedhin Yalew, a researcher and lecturer at Mekelle University, shared these concerns, noting that while some residents of Southern Tigray support Debretsion's faction, others in Adwa and Shire align with Getachew's group.
According to Gebremedhin, this highlights the widespread rejection by the people of any attempts by the leadership to divide them along such lines.
"The future of the TPLF depends on the leaders' ability to resolve their differences and collaborate for the greater good," he told Addis Standard.
The discord between the two factions within the TPLF leadership has intensified, with President Getachew Reda appointing new zonal administrators while revoking the previous appointments.
In response, Fetlework Gebreegziabher, head of the TPLF Office, issued a formal letter condemning and rejecting the new appointments.
Subsequently, the president's office imposed a restriction on holding any meetings without the president's prior approval.
"This represents a significant escalation of internal tensions, casting a shadow over the region's uncertain future," asserted Gebremedhin. "Tigray now stands at a critical juncture between hope and despair, and the ongoing power struggle among the top leaders not only heightens instability but also hampers the region's recovery efforts."
The researcher noted that the division within the TPLF has reached a critical juncture, posing a serious threat to the region's stability.
Gebremedhin emphasized that, in addition to the humanitarian and security challenges, the internal conflict is becoming a major source of concern.
The power struggle among the political leadership has intensified, with both factions holding separate meetings and accusing each other of violating party rules and regulations.
At a conference convened by Getachew Reda, the resolutions of the 14th Congress were declared "null and void," while the faction led by Debretsion replaced Getachew Reda, the deputy chairman of the party, with Amanuel Assefa, the former head of the Tigray region's justice bureau during the 14th Congress.
TPLF's congress was held despite the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) declaring that any general assembly held without its authorization would not be recognized, and its decisions would be considered null and void. The board rejected TPLF's request to reinstate its pre-war legal status, instead granting it a certificate of legal personality as a new political party under special conditions, a decision rejected by Debretsion's faction.
The unresolved issue of TPLF's registration remains a major point of contention, further deepening the divide between the two factions. Following the conclusion of its congress, Debretsion's faction made its intentions clear: it seeks to secure positions within the Interim Regional Administration, which had been allocated to the TPLF, albeit through dialogue.
Meanwhile, Getachew Reda claimed that his faction, which includes the majority of the party's central committee members, represents the true TPLF.
Tigray's future hangs in the balance
Gebremedhin argued that the ongoing internal dispute within the TPLF is deepening tension and uncertainty among the people of Tigray, further aggravating the region's severe humanitarian crisis.
Despite the Pretoria Peace Agreement, which formally concluded hostilities, nearly one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) continue to face severe food shortages, limited access to healthcare, and increasing violence, including incidents of kidnapping, murder, and sexual assault.
Observers have noted that international aid efforts remain inadequate, hindered by bureaucratic obstacles, logistical difficulties, and persistent violence.
While acknowledging the significant challenges in achieving goals such as the resettlement of the displaced, Getachew, during a recent discussion with residents of Adigrat City, pledged to address the issue.
"We will not compromise on the interests of our people," the president emphasized. "The plight and suffering of this displaced population are of paramount importance."
Despite official assurances, Gebremedhin emphasizes that the deep-rooted divisions within the TPLF, driven by internal power struggles, may further exacerbate the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
The researcher also highlights that, beyond its impact on the Tigray region, this internal division significantly undermines the party's ability to negotiate effectively with external entities such as the federal government.
Echoing Gebremedhin's concerns, Mehari Girmay (PhD), a senior member of the Tigray Independence Party, argues that the differing perspectives held by the two factions toward the federal government have not only stalled rehabilitation efforts but also weakened the party's capacity to negotiate a peaceful resolution.
The opposition party leader further cautions that these divisions could escalate into a dangerous situation, with one or both factions potentially seeking support from external forces, such as the federal government or Eritrea.
"This could plunge the region back into conflict, with devastating consequences," Mehari warns.
In a press briefing to local media last week, Debretsion revealed that the TPLF leadership had been involved in negotiations with Eritrea.
The TPLF chairperson explained that, based on decisions made by the party's executive and central committees, a delegation led by President Getachew Reda had initiated negotiations with Eritrea.
Debretsion further stated that after Getachew met with Eritrean officials and reported back to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, "Prime Minister Abiy himself said, 'The Eritreans have serious grievances with you; you need to address this matter,"' he revealed.
He also emphasized that, during the intense conflict between the federal government and Tigray forces, the TPLF engaged in discussions with officials from international organizations and leaders of powerful nations in an effort to reach a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Although there are no significant policy or ideological differences between the two factions, observers and experts suggest that the struggle for power has been a major impediment to resolving these divisions.
"External backers have played a significant role in exacerbating the TPLF's internal conflicts, as both factions have received support from either the federal government or the state of Eritrea," stated Mehari.
He added that "these external entities may exploit the TPLF to turn the region into a battleground, thereby fueling tensions and undermining reconciliation efforts."
Mehari further noted that the struggle for control has been characterized by accusations of betrayal, manipulation, and corruption, complicating the party's ability to function effectively.
"The deep-seated distrust between the two factions has made it challenging to negotiate a lasting resolution to their differences," Mehari remarked. "Both sides have accused each other of bad faith and have been unwilling to compromise on key issues."
Both sides have accused each other of bad faith and have been unwilling to compromise on key issues." Mehari Girmay (PhD), a senior member of Tigray Independence Party
According to the opposition party leader, this lack of trust has obstructed dialogue and reconciliation efforts, impeding the ability to address the root causes of the divisions.
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"These factors have contributed to the ongoing instability within the TPLF and have hindered the party's ability to govern the region effectively," Mehari stated.
Charting the path forward
As the humanitarian crisis in Tigray is becoming more challenging by the ongoing leadership split within the TPLF, observers indicate that a sustainable solution will require a comprehensive approach that addresses the needs of the affected population, promotes participatory democracy, fosters reconciliation, and ensures respect for human rights.
Mike Hammer, US's special envoy to the Horn of Africa, during his latest visit to the Tigray region met with leaders of both factions, urging them to resolve the division within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) through dialogue.
The ambassador hinted at considering regional elections as a means to reach breakthrough. "Whatever internal division there may be, we urge that they be resolved through dialogue. Eventually, I Imagine there will be regional elections in Tigray as there will be in other regions ... people will pick their leaders and that's the way to resolve things," the ambassador remarked.
According to Mehari, an inclusive government structure that encompasses a wide range of stakeholders--including opposition parties, civil society organizations, and the general population--should be established.
"The TPLF must distinctly separate its governmental and party functions to ensure that decisions are made in the best interests of the people," he argued. "A participatory approach involving all relevant stakeholders in the decision-making processes should be adopted."
Mehari also urged TPLF leaders to reconcile their differences and prioritize the well-being of the Tigray people.
"Establishing a regional state council through a participatory process is crucial for addressing the root causes of the conflict and ensuring humanitarian access," he stated.
Both Mehari and Gebremedhin also called for security forces to maintain neutrality, urged religious leaders and elders to actively mediate, and advocated for international monitoring of the Pretoria Peace Agreement.
They also stressed the critical roles of the diaspora and media in promoting peace.
However, both emphasized that addressing the TPLF's internal divisions is the most critical step for confronting the current challenges facing the region and for shaping a more promising future for Tigray.
