The People's Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress have been natural opponents and contestants in Edo state's political landscape like in national polls. The LP, especially after its outing in the 2023 general poll, has shown its capability to give the PDP and APC something to worry about.
No doubt, the election is a three-horse race, but that of Edo is peculiar in several ways. One, the rivalry between the PDP and the APC, not just at the national level, but is more of a status and influence contest between two former allies, Governor Godwin Obaseki, and his predecessor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and now Senator of the Federal Republic. Before the duo parted ways, they were political bedfellows such that against all protestations, Oshiomhole, as the outgoing governor in 2016, made Obaseki, who then was a political neophyte, the governor of the state on the platform of the APC. But when the handshake krept beyond the elbow, both became political enemies and never agreed again politically.
Therefore, this Saturday's election will rekindle the rivalry between the duo which began with the refusal in 2019 of 14 state elected lawmakers loyal to Oshiomohle from being sworn in as members of state parliament orchestrated by Obaseki. To get back at Obaseki, Oshiomohle then as National Chairman of APC, denied Obaseki APC's second term gubernatorial ticket which later caused him his job.
Obaseki was then forced to move to the waiting hands of the PDP, and all those who had an axe to grind with Oshiomhole rallied round the governor and saw to Obaseki's victory, which left the Oshiomhole political dynasty stranded as it lost 13 out of the 18 local government areas in the state.
Since then, it has been a ding-dong affair between the two power houses in the state that after the 2020 outing, Oshiomhole's camp re-grouped and by the time the camp came out of its political laboratory, it was in a good stead to give Obaseki and his PDP a run for their money. The real test of power played out in the 2023 general election when PDP failed to win any of the three senatorial seats in the state. Oshiomhole clinched the slot for Edo North senatorial District for himself and also mobilised APC supporters in Edo Central to get Senator Monday Okpebholo, who is the APC governorship candidate, to win for the APC. The former governor was able to achieve that feat because Obaseki's attempt to change the political arrangement in the district which shares political offices between the two blocs of Okpebholo and Agbazilo met resistance from the people.
Similar scenario played out in Edo South where Obaseki wanted to foist Matthew Urhoghide who was then finishing his second term as senator representing the area.
In the case of Agbazilo and Okpebholo, while Obaseki insisted on returning Senator Clifford Odia from Okpebholo for a third term, the people opted to follow their ancient political landmark of zoning the senatorial seat to the Agbazilo axis. Angered by the governor's behaviour, when it was rumoured that the LP candidate who naturally would have been a choice was hand picked by Obaseki, the people had no other choice other than to opt for the APC candidate from Okpebholo bloc. That was how the zone which have Obaseki block votes in 2020, changed the narrative.
For the Edo South district, this political mistrust also threw up the LP victory one because the people did not want APC because of its economic policies that have thrown Nigerians into hardship, and two the personality of the PDP candidate, hence the decision to settle for LP.
It was however, a different ball game in the 2023 state assembly election as Obaseki made sure he restricted the opposition APC and to a lesser extent, the LP back to their status as opposition parties in the state.
Therefore, with the near political-balance-of-power in the September 21 governorship poll and the selection of candidates by the three major forces in the state, four major factors may likely shape the outcome of the election.
One of these is how people perceived the three political parties in the contest and their candidates and party programmes. Except for the factor of ethnicity, which the PDP and the APC have settled by picking candidates from the central senatorial district for equity, justice and fair play, the LP candidate, Olumide Akpata though coming from a zone with majority registered voters is considered disadvantaged because of the seeming consensus of Edo people that the governorship be zoned to central area.
Even at that, personality will also determine who becomes the next governor of the state going by the sophistication of Edo voters. Should that play out, the contest would be between the candidate of the PDP, Asue Ighodalo, and that of the LP, Olumide Akpata as many have observed. The candidate of the APC, though, a sitting Senator, does not come into reckoning in that rating. Akpata himself made allusion to that in one of his engagements when he said "my focus is on the PDP because there is nothing in the APC", a veil reference that the man lacks depth and other characteristics expected of a candidate in the 2024 poll.
Juxtaposing the charisma, disposition and grasp of the APC standard bearer with those of the PDP and LP, is like comparing light and darkness because while the two are in their elements and in different realm in terms of articulation, eloquence, grasp and knowledge of the issues concerning governance, the APC candidate unfortunately, lack such prowess.
If not for the the issue of consensus that the governorship be ceded to Edo central, it would've been a hard choice to make between Ighodalo and Akpata. As lawyers, both have made remarkable footprints in their chosen profession. Akpata, a former President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Ighodalo has been chairman of many corporate bodies, such as Sterling Bank Plc, Nigeria Breweries Plc, member, Oshiomohle Economic Team then chaired by Obaseki, and for eight years, adviser to Obaseki on economic matters can hold sway as governor of the state.
While on the podium seeking for votes, the two have demonstrated who they are, with sound oratory prowess and good crowd engagement delivery. So, if personality, mien and charisma were the parameters at stake, Ighodalo and Akpata, no doubt, are the two options before Edo people.
The second is the financial strength of the candidates and parties. No doubt, all the three major contenders have big war chest as they have demonstrated in their campaigns through advertorials, jingles, tele- campaigns, posters and all that, but what is worrisome is the alleged plan by one of the parties to engage in vote buying using that means to cajole gullible voters against their will having weaponised poverty to the extent that the average and uneducated voter will now mortgage his conscience for pittance.
The third factor is the role of godfathers. During the APC primary and while the crisis that rocked the exercise lasted, a stalwart of the party from both Edo North and Edo Central argued that the choice of Okpebholo above notable names from his zone like Prof. Osunbor, Gideon Ikhine, Mike Onolememen, Gideon Obahkan, Patrick Ikhariale and many other remain a minus for the party. They are not wrong in their observations but because of the backing of Oshiomohle and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, the party would rather prefer someone that lacks personality than those with good education.
On the other hand, another APC member, who preferred anonymity, described the "Okpebholo's candidacy as what you get when you have leaders who will rather champion their own personal interest than listen to anybody", adding that if the party fails to win the election, then the likes of Ize-Iyamu and Oshiomohle be held responsible by refusing to see the personality of the candidate they want to foist on the people coming into play in the September election and the sophistication of the electorate.
The division between the Agbazilo and Okpebholo sub-groups of Edo Central is another factor likely to play a major role on how the voting will be in that district where majority of the people in the area have the strong feeling that the Okpebholo axis, having gotten the senatorial seat in person of the APC candidate, Senator Monday Okpebholo, it would only be right and fair, if the Agbazilo axis, comprising Uromi, Ubiaja, Ewohimi, Ewatto and Uzea, should produce the governor. This argument becomes stronger when juxtaposed with the undeniable fact that the Okpebholo axis (Ekpoma, Irrua, Ewu, Igueben, etc), had produced two governors in the past in the persons of the late Professor Ambrose Folorunsho Alli and Professor Osarheimen Osunbor, whose term was cut short by the Court of Appeal in 2028.
The PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo, hails from Ewohim in Agbazilo axis of the district. Should the Esan people decide to maintain their ancient political configuration, they are likely to vote more for the PDP candidate as his emergence as governor would have sustained that age-old tradition of political distribution.
Not only that, some notable personalities who were edged out in the build up to APC governorship primary that threw up the duo of Okpebholo and Idahosa are not happy that they were not given fair chances to contest.
Persons like the erudite scholar and professor of jurisprudence, Osariemen Osunbor, Gideon Obahkan, Gideon Ikhine, Patrick Ikhariale, and many others have the carriage, eloquence and depth to engage even the most sophisticated electorate.
Like someone from the area said, even if you want somebody from Edo Central as the APC standard bearer, why not look for the best or even the near best. According to the source who preferred anonymity, "the emergence of Okpebholo was a suprise to all of us. This was one of the major reasons why just few Esans are with him. When you see him mount the podium to address the people, you begin to wonder why of all the best from the area in terms of articulation, message delivery and what have you, Okpebholo is the only one we see. It is a slap on us", he lamented.
The Diaspora factor is not something to ignore because of their strong attachments back home. In every five homes in Edo, you can boast of having at least two persons from a family living overseas, so their input is something that cannot be ignored.
For instance, this Diaspora group lent their voice on Monday, September 16 saying they agreed that their support is for Ighodalo because of his pedigree as someone who has the capacity to bring in development to the state. The group members who displayed their PCVs, said their sole purpose of coming back home is to cast their votes for Ighodalo and his running mate, Ogie, adding that after their interaction with candidates of the three major parties, they are not in doubt who the cap fits. They also asked voters in the state not to be intimidated in any way but come out in their numbers to cast their votes for candidate of their choice.
Another critical issue to the election is the third party advocacy role or what many referred to as federal might. While lobbying delegates for the presidential primaries in 2022, President Bola Tinubu allegedly promised Edo delegates to bring back the state into the APC fold. Tinubu then may have made such promise to induce delegates from the state to vote for him in the primary election. Now he is President and it appears the average Edo APC member wants Tinubu to fullfil his promise. Since the President allegedly made such promise and now that he is in the saddle, the APC has been behaving like a young man promised police recruitment and before the exercise, started going about arresting people. The party hierarchy in the state has been having sleepless nights trying to conjure the spirit of federal might even when Tinubu who made the promise then, did so apparently get the support of Edo delegates.
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Speak to an average APC supporter in Edo, all you hear is that since Obaseki used state might to win local government elections, the party 'll also use federal might to win governorship poll either by hook or crook.
Not left out is the role the deputy governorship candidates will play in the emergency of their principals. Those of the PDP, Osarodion Ogie, and the APC's Dennis Idahosa, are expected to play vital roles.
Of the duo, Ogie enjoys more acceptability across all political parties. As former Chief of Staff for former governor Oshiomohle, Commissioner for Works and SSG to Obaseki since 2016 before he resigned to pursue his political ambition, Ogie has been the people's man. Even in the political crossfire between Obaseki and Oshiomhole in 2020, he maintained a dignified position of absolute neutrality. In the current campaign, when Oshiomhole threw some darts at his direction, he remained calm. Ogie is a man one can easily be said to be at home in any of the political camps in the state.
The APC deputy governorship candidate, Idahosa, also enjoys some level of goodwill. Apart from being a sitting member of the House of Representatives, winning his re-election by defeating Omosede Igbinedion of the PDP, he also served in the cabinet of Oshiomhole briefly before he was booted out by the former Labour leader. Placed side-by-side Ogie, the PDP running mate towers far above his APC counterpart, while the LP's running mate, Alhaji Yusuf Asamah Kadiri (SAN), largely looms in the dark, politically.
Three days to the Edo governorship election, all the political parties in the state have began final preparations for the encounter with Vice President Kashim Shettima and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar leading the governors and leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), respectively, literarily to shut down Benin City, Edo State capital last weekend to mobilise support for the governorship candidates of their respective political parties - Dr Asue Ighodalo of the PDP, and Senator Monday Okpebholo of the APC.
Similarly, the former presidential candidate of LP, Mr. Peter Obi, and the Governor of Abia State, Alex Otti, also came last week to Edo to hold street to street rally and road show for the party's candidate, Olumide Akpata.
