The just concluded Edo State Governorship poll could well be described as a three-horse race. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate, Dr. Asue Ighodalo; the All Progressives Congress (APC) which featured Senator Monday Okpebholo; the Labour Party (LP) with Olumide Akpata. There were also 14 other parties and their candidates.
In concrete terms, Akpata and other parties' candidates right from onset lacked the wherewithal to upturn the chances of the big two (APC and PDP) to make any difference. The two big parties were already household names and their rivalry did not just begin yesterday but since the advent of the Fourth Republic over 25 years ago.
Although APC's emergence into a national political force actually began in 2015 when it won the presidential election, it has remained an opposition element with different nomenclature like Alliance for Democracy (AD), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and lastly, the All Progressives Congress (APC) after a coalition was born.
On the other hand, the PDP has been a dominant force right from the emergence of the present democratic dispensation.
Labour Party, though not too new as a political force, but the only time it made wave was during the 2023 general election when it fielded the former Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi as its presidential candidate as well as the ability of the party to win one governorship seat and a number of national assembly seats.
Therefore in the just concluded Edo gubernatorial poll, it was clear that it's either the PDP or APC that will carry the day.
Incidentally, the APC displaced the PDP this time around after the outgoing governor had ran on the platform of the two parties. First on the platform of APC and second with the PDP.
Obaseki was able to defeat the APC in 2020 not because he was well grounded politically, but because the Edo electorate saw him as someone being oppressed by a political godfather and benefactor. The infighting in APC both at the national and state levels contributed to his being re-elected for second term.
However, he was carried away by his successes and neglected the human element in governance, hence his political opponents began to see him as someone who lack empathy but derives joy in fighting those that helped him politically.
One had thought that after parting ways with his predecessor, Comrade Adams Oshiomohle, who helped him in his first shot as governor, he would have mellowed down and settle down for proper governance of the state.
But immediately he got his second term through the help of the PDP, Obaseki began to display similar characters to those he met in the party. For instance, if Oshiomohle was "overbearing", there was no reason why Obaseki should part ways with Chief Dan Orbi, former governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, former Speaker of the state assembly, Hon Kabiru Adjoto, Charles Idahosa, Anselm Ojezua, Gideon Ikhine, Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama and many others who were there for him then when APC showed him the way out of the party ahead of the 2020 governorship poll.
Even with his deputy, Philip Shaibu, who was impeached by the state assembly through the push of Obaseki was unnecessary. Rather than finding a way to tolerate Shaibu, he went for the jugular by ensuring he was removed from office.
Similar behaviour played out when Obaseki championed the non swearing in of 14 elected state lawmakers in 2019 and their fate still hanging in the ballance with another set already in the saddle.
All these culminated in the gang up against Obaseki. It is not as if his candidate, Ighodalo lacks the knowledge and swag of governance having played significant role in the administration of Oshiomohle and in the present government, but what played out is just a gang up to teach Obaseki some political lessons that you can't have it all the time.
Unfortunately, his preferred candidate, Ighodalo and running mate, Osarodion Ogie, are the sacrificial lambs that suffered Obaseki's self centred behaviour, politics of alienation and annihilation. Two fine unassuming gentlemen are now the ones to carry the cross of Obaseki's uncompromising attitude.
Comparatively, Okpebholo in terms of governance quality is a minus compared to cerebral people like Akpata and Ighodalo but he is the one the entrenched political class both in the state and at the national level chose to foist on the people of Edo State known for their sophistication. This was due to Obaseki's hard stance on issues and holier than thou attitude to others especially people that opened their doors for him when it was raining heavily outside.
Therefore, even with all the infrastructure put in place, the agricultural revolution, the ability to build an independent power station, the inroad in education and the propensity to build high Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), the political hawks said No! You can't continue to have your way.
Though the victory of APC may not have anything to do with Obaseki's relationship with the Oba of Benin and the issue of proposed return of artifacts and where to house them, the party to a large extent used it as a campaign strategy to create enemity between the Oba and Governor Obaseki, especially among indigenes of Benin dominant in Edo South senatorial district who look up to the paramount ruler as god on earth. That sentiment played significant role in demarketing Ighodalo because of Obaseki's support for him.
To them, a victory for Ighodalo and Ogie is victory for Obaseki. So the best thing to do is to stop their aspirations even with the best of intentions. The best thing is to throw away the baby with the bath water.
Another critical issue that played out is the unguided utterances during the electioneering campaign. "Edo will burn if PDP did not win the election", "Edo no be Lagos", a slogan that worked during the 2020 governorship forgetting that this is 2024.
It would be recalled that in the build up to APC presidential primary election, then presidential aspurant, Bola Tinubu had promised the party delegates that if he wins, he will return Edo back to APC fold. He may not have given such assurance for the sake of campaign. Today, opportunity knocks and he has to fulfil his promise using what he has to get what he wanted.
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The last straw that broke the camel's back was the accusation by the Edo PDP Chairman, Tony Aziegbemi during the symbolic Peace Accord signing organised by the Kukah Foundation in conjunction with former Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar in Benin. At the meeting, Aziegbemi openly accused the police of bias concerning the arrest and detention of some PDP members few weeks to election. In his response, the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun told Aziegbemi frontally that if arresting and investigating persons allegedly involved in the killing of a Police Inspector is bias, he (Aziegbemi) will live with that dream forever.
Such combative attitude is not the best approach knowing fully well that implications will no doubt have a rebound and other ripple effects. And today, the PDP is struggling for legitimacy in a state it once holds sway.
Nonetheless, nothing is meant to last forever. Like Moises Naim in his book, "The End of Power", said: "From boardrooms to battlefields and churches to states, why being in power isn't what it use to be."
In other words, power like every other sphere of life is in constant shift.
