Fact-checking president Tinubu's claims about Nigeria's economic successes in his Independence Day speech
- The president was right that the country had cleared a crippling US$7 billion foreign exchange backlog.
- But Tinubu's claim about eliminating hundreds of commanders of non-state groups terrorising Nigerians and reducing debt servicing could not be independently verified.
- Claims of $30 billion in foreign direct investment, the size of the country's foreign reserves and its youth population were wrong. Tinubu also took liberties with facts about government borrowing from the central bank.
On 1 October 2024, Nigeria's president Bola Tinubu addressed the nation in a speech to mark the 64th anniversary of Nigeria's independence.
The country has faced tough economic conditions in recent months, leading to protests.
Tinubu, who took office in May 2023, pleaded with Nigerians to be patient with his administration, promising that his reforms were beginning to yield positive results.
He highlighted some of his government's achievements in areas such as security and the economy. We fact-checked eight of his claims.
Since Nigeria's fight against insurgency began more than a decade ago, the army has made dozens of announcements about the elimination of terror group Boko Haram commanders and, more recently, bandits.
However, the terrorists have continued to attack communities, kill, and kidnap for ransom. Very little is known about how Boko Haram and the bandits command and operate. For example, Boko Haram has split into factions over the years. First, in 2012, a Boko Haram faction called Ansaru broke away. It was reportedly linked to Al-Qaeda.
Then, in 2016, another faction allied itself with Islamic State and morphed into the Islamic State of West African Province.
The Nigerian military also reported the death of Boko Haram's leader, Abubakar Shekau, on four separate occasions since 2009. Each time, Shekau appeared in videotaped denials.
He was eventually reported killed while clashing with rival jihadists in 2021.
Africa Check found media reports of Boko Haram and bandit commanders killed by soldiers and killed in clashes with fellow terrorists.
But we have found no publicly available records of the number of commanders killed over the last year or in previous years. (Note: The presidency later referred to 300 as being the number of bandits killed, rather than commanders.)
Security expert, Mike Ejiofor, a retired director of the department of state services, told Africa Check that the figure must have come from security agencies, and such data was not usually readily available to the public.
"I don't expect the president to give such a number without getting it from security agencies. I believe the number of the commanders killed, most have been collated from all the security agencies involved in fighting Boko Haram and bandits," he said.
Ejiofor was also cautiously optimistic.
"I believe the approaches adopted by the new security chief have yielded results in the past year. The terrorist's capacity for mass kidnapping and attacks on communities has declined. However, Nigerians expect the government to do a lot more. They should clear the terrorists so that farmers can return to their farms and produce food so that food costs will drop," Ejiofor said.
In the absence of publicly available data that can be independently verified, we consider the claim to be unproven. (Read more about how we rate claims here.) - Allwell Okpi
One of the most striking claims Tinubu made was that the country attracted more than $30 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) the last year under his watch.
The National Bureau of Statistics publishes quarterly data on capital inflows into Nigeria.
The statistics bureau divides these inflows into three categories: foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investment.
The data shows much lower FDI figures. The most recent is for the first quarter of 2024.
In that quarter, Nigeria received $119.18 million in FDI. The FDI recorded in the three preceding quarters was $183.97 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, $59.77 million in the third quarter and $86.03 million in the second quarter of 2023, when Tinubu took office.
Between April 2023 and March 2024, foreign direct investment in Nigeria was worth $448.95 million. This is less than half a billion dollars.
There is no evidence that the country attracted around $30 billion in the second and third quarters of 2024. In a subsequent explainer on 3 October the presidency said the figures were for investments "committed to Nigeria". - Allwell Okpi
In August 2024 during mass protests against economic hardship, Tinubu's media team distributed an infographic showing how some economic indicators had improved under Tinubu.
The infographic said Tinubu inherited $34 billion in foreign reserves when he took office in May 2023, a claim that we fact-checked at the time.
Foreign exchange reserves are assets held by a central bank in foreign currencies. They play a key role in maintaining the value of a country's currency and its economic stability.
Contrary to the claim, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that the country's foreign reserves were between $35.1 billion and $35.3 billion in May 2023.
So Tinubu inherited more reserves - about $35 billion - not $33 billion as he claimed on Independence Day. - Allwell Okpi
This claim was also made in the August 2024 infographic. It is correct.
Forex backlog refers to unmet demand for foreign exchange that has accumulated over time, often due to a shortage of foreign exchange reserves, particularly in this case. In a bid to stabilise the exchange rate and curb imported inflation, the CBN announced in March 2024 that it had cleared the foreign exchange backlog.
Prof Gafar Ijaiya, an economist who teaches at the University of Ilorin, said that during the backlog, companies that did business with Nigeria weren't paid, with some companies crippled as a result.
"The most critical effect of this is the trust that some of these businesses lost in our country. The current government has tried to restore the confidence by clearing the backlog which is a welcome development," he told Africa Check.
Ijaiya said that the exchange rate also benefited, but due to other factors, the country didn't feel the impact of clearing the backlog. - Muktar Balogun
Ways and means debt refers to a type of debt incurred by a government when it borrows from its central bank.
In May 2023, then president Muhammadu Buhari obtained the senate's approval to borrow N22.7 trillion in ways and means debt. This was converted into long-term public debt that would be managed by the debt management office (DMO).
In December 2023, the senate also approved his successor Tinubu's request to securitise a N7.3 trillion ways and means loan. This brought the total amount of the federal government's ways and means debt converted into long-term debt to N30 trillion.
Notably, the document confirming the securitisation of N22.7 trillion under Buhari shows that the loan now has a maturity of 40 years, providing a long-term repayment structure.
There will also be a grace period on principal payments for the first three years, meaning that the government will only have to service the interest during this period.
After the moratorium period, repayment will be spread over 37 years, allowing the government to make regular instalments covering both principal and interest in a manageable long-term debt service.
Longer-term debt
Unlike Buhari's securitised loan, we found no document on the DMO website with details of the N7.3 trillion securitised by the current administration.
Tinubu's claim that his administration has cleared N30 trillion ways and means debt, when it was only converted into longer-term debt, is misleading.
Prof Ijaiya of the University of Ilorin said borrowing from the central bank was normal for the government to bridge short-term funding gaps. "There is nothing wrong with it," he said.
Ijaiya also said that securitisation was sustainable if the ways and means of debt was used to develop countries. "If they use it for production purposes, you'll assume that it will yield long-term benefits. But if they misappropriate the money, then we'll definitely continue to be in debt." - Muktar Balogun
The claim is similar to one made by finance minister, Wale Edun, who reportedly said on 26 July 2024 that "total debt service has declined from 97% of revenue in the first half of 2023 to 68% in 2024".
Tinubu became president in the second quarter of 2023. The budget implementation report for that quarter, published by the budget office of the federation, shows that the government's net distributable revenue was N2.93 trillion and N1.6 trillion was spent on debt servicing.
Distributable revenue is the amount allocated to the three levels of government: federal, state and local.
Using those figures, the debt service to revenue ratio for that quarter was 54.6%.
However, neither Tinubu nor Edun specified whether the claim was for a particular month, quarter or year.
The latest data from the debt office covers the first quarter of 2024. It shows that the federal government spent N989.24 billion on domestic debt service and $1.12 billion (N1.49 trillion) on external debt service, for a total of N2.48 trillion.
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For the same quarter, government revenue figures vary.
Central bank data shows that the country had a gross revenue of N6.07 trillion and a net revenue of N4.78 trillion in the first quarter of 2024.
The federal government retained N1.76 trillion in the quarter. The net distributable revenue and value-added tax was N3.63 trillion. With debt service of N2.48 trillion and distributable revenue of N3.63 trillion, the debt-to-revenue ratio is 68.31%.
Figures for the second and third quarters have not yet been published.
However, as we are unable to determine which month or quarter the president was referring to, we rate the claim as unproven. - Allwell Okpi
We rated this claim as exaggerated in our previous fact-check of the government's infographic published in August. Then, reserves were not $37 billion but $36.8 billion.
The president repeated the claim on 1 October - but by then the reserves had exceeded $38 billion.
Central bank data shows that Nigeria's foreign reserves rose steadily to $38.06 billion on 27 September, a few days before Tinubu's Independence Day speech. - Allwell Okpi
The National Youth Policy defines young people in Nigeria as those between the ages of 15 and 29.
Nigeria has no current official population figures. The last census was in 2006. Recent demographic data is based on estimates.
The latest estimate of Nigeria's population by the National Bureau of Statistics covers the year 2022, when the agency pegged the number at 216,783,381.
The population pyramid suggests that a large percentage of the population is made up by young people. However, there is no specific number or percentage available.
The bureau's population estimates for 2016, broken down by age, showed that people aged 15 to 29 accounted for about 55.84 million of the country's estimated population of 193.39 million in that year. This is 28.87%.
Tinubu would have been right if he had referred to all people under the age of 29, not just those between 15 and 29. This broader group represents 70.69% of the bureau's 2016 population estimate. - Muktar Balogun
