As NNPC withdraws as a middleman for Dangote Refinery petrol, the price of petrol at fuel stations in Lagos may rise to N991.21 per litre, N1,040.31 in Kano, and N1,007.35 in Calabar, depending on exchange rate and crude oil prices
Nigerians will soon face an increase in petrol prices due to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) decision to terminate its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery, PREMIUM TIMES has learnt.
According to a Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) data pricing framework across eight Nigerian cities, obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the price of petrol at retail outlets nationwide is set to rise to at least N991.21/litre from the current N897/litre.
A data review indicates that in Abuja, the nation's capital city, petrol may sell as high as N1,029.01 in retail outlets. The price of petrol in Lagos may rise to N991.21 per litre, N1,040.31 in Kano, and N1,007.35 in Calabar.
The product would sell for an average of N1,045.72 per litre in fuel stations in Sokoto, N1,059.39 in Maiduguri, N999.27 in Ibadan, and N1,022.63 in Enugu.
Earlier on Monday, this newspaper exclusively reported that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) is ending its exclusive purchase agreement with Dangote Refinery, opening up the market for other marketers to buy petrol directly from the refinery.
This means the NNPC will no longer be the sole off-taker, and marketers can now negotiate prices directly with Dangote Refinery. This development aligns with the current practices for fully deregulated products, where refineries can sell directly to marketers on a willing buyer, willing seller basis.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) document, obtained from sources at the agency, provides insight into the subsidy payment differentials paid by NNPC in major Nigerian cities and what Nigerians may pay at the pump in the absence of the subsidy arrangement.
The NMDPRA is the agency responsible for regulating midstream and downstream petroleum operations in Nigeria, including technical, operational, and commercial activities.
The Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) data pricing framework, based on ten trading days weighted averages from 23 September to 4 October 2024, showed that the NNPC was paying an average estimated differential of N134.5 per litre in the eight cities.
Following NNPC's decision to quit its sole off-taker role with Dangote Refinery, indicative pump prices are expected to become effective at fuel stations nationwide, as subsidy payment will no longer be in place.
Although the expected price hike is not static and won't be dictated by government agencies, the NMDPRA data provides insights into possible pump prices.
Details of post-subsidy indicative pump prices
In all the cities the document referred to, the average NAFEM FX rate used to calculate the pump price was N1,604.89/USD.
In Lagos State, the indicative pump price is N991.21, while the actual NNPC pump price is N855 per litre. This indicates that NNPC pays about N136.21 as its estimated differential price.
In Abuja, the indicative pump price is N1,029.01 while the actual pump price is N897 per litre, meaning that the NNPC pays about N132.01 as an estimated differential.
For Kano, the indicative pump price is N1,040.31 per litre, while the actual pump price is N904, indicating an estimated differential price of N136.31.
In Calabar, the indicative pump price is N1,007.35; the actual pump price is N885 per litre, and the estimated differential price is N122.35.
In Sokoto, the indicative pump price is N1,045.72 per litre, while the actual pump price is N904, indicating an estimated differential of N141.72.
In Maiduguri, the indicative pump price is N1,059.39, while the actual pump price is N924, indicating an estimated differential of N135.39.
In Ibadan, the indicative pump price is N999.27 per litre while the actual pump price is N865, and the estimated differential price is N134.27.
Enugu's indicative pump price is N1,022.63, the actual pump price is N885 per litre, and the estimated differential price is N137.63.
While the FX rate remains constant in the cities, this newspaper observed price differences in the domestic pump prices in each city based on their distance to Lagos, the nation's economic hub where the Dangote Refinery is located.
Sources told PREMIUM TIMES on Monday that the pump price may even be higher than estimated, depending on crude oil prices and prevailing foreign exchange rates.
The NNPC had claimed in September that it was buying petrol from Dangote Refinery at N898.78 per litre and selling to marketers at N765.99 per litre, shouldering a subsidy of almost N133 per litre.
The NNPC lifted about 103 million litres of petrol from Dangote Refinery between September 15 and 30. During the period under review, the refinery loaded 2,207 of the 3,621 trucks sent to it.
Records seen by PREMIUM TIMES show that the vehicles conveyed just 102,973,025 litres of the planned 400,000,000 litres of petrol earmarked to be lifted from the refinery at 25 million litres per day, translating to a 26 per cent performance.
Background
On 15 September, the NNPC began loading petrol from the Dangote Refinery.
On 26 September, the House of Representatives called on the federal government to mandate the NNPC Ltd and Dangote Refinery to allow independent marketers to lift petrol directly from the refinery.
The lower chamber also urged Dangote Refinery's management to build, acquire, or partner to establish tank farms or depots across the country's geopolitical zones to ease the public's access to petroleum products.
This call followed a motion of urgent public importance moved on Thursday by Oboku Oforji (PDP, Bayelsa).
Moving the motion, Mr Oforji explained that excluding independent marketers threatened competition in the sector.
He noted that competition is essential for reducing costs, adding that some marketers may import products to survive.
"NNPCL and the major marketers being the exclusive off-takers spells monopoly, which is tantamount to greed. This is the same NNPC Ltd that has failed to manage our crude and refineries for decades," the lawmaker said.
Those familiar with the matter told PREMIUM TIMES that NNPC is now set to withdraw as the sole off-taker to allow other marketers to directly purchase petrol from Dangote Refinery at the prevailing market price, promoting competition and potentially stabilising supply chains.
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NNPC, Dangote keep mum
Although the NNPC has not officially confirmed its decision to quit the sole off-taker role in the Dangote arrangement, an official of the state-owned oil company on Monday confirmed the development to a group of top editors and media owners at a meeting in Abuja.
The Dangote Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, did not respond to PREMIUM TIMES when reached for comments Tuesday morning.
Attempts to reach Olufemi Soneye, the NNPC's chief corporate communications officer, were also unsuccessful. As of Tuesday morning, he did not answer or return calls. Neither did he reply to a text message seeking clarification.
It remains unclear Tuesday morning whether the new development will impact the Nigerian government's initiative to sell crude oil in local currency. Earlier in the month, the committee in charge of the initiative announced that selling crude in Naira had commenced.
On Tuesday, the Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), who doubles as the chairman of the technical sub-committee on the presidential initiative on Naira for crude sales, Zacch Adedeji, was not readily available for comment.
However, a source at the FIRS who is conversant with the committee's activities said that the development would not affect the presidential initiative on Naira for crude sales.
"It (selling crude in Naira) has already started. If something has started and there is no statement to the contrary that it will be halted or going to change or it will be modified whether NNPC is pulling out, it will not affect it," the source said.
