Outsiders must do more than shrug at outright rigging and post-election violence.
It is customary to congratulate countries on recent elections, but it is hard to imagine that the people of Mozambique are breaking out the confetti. Their October 9 general elections started on an uneven playing field, and the process only went downhill from there. FRELIMO, the ruling party, dominates government in Mozambique, and lines between the party and the state often are blurred, especially in the run up to elections. Ruling party strongholds saw impressive voter registration figures--so impressive that the number of registered voters exceeded the estimated of-age population in those areas. International observers found the electoral process itself to have been marred by vote-buying and voter intimidation. Observers from the European Union noted "irregularities during counting and unjustified alteration of election results." There is certainly plenty of time for shenanigans; results are not due until October 24.
Mozambique's politics have long been framed through a historical lens that pits former military antagonists against each other--the dominant ruling party, FRELIMO, against the opposing RENAMO. Indeed, memories of the long civil war that ended in 1992 still inform the country's politics, and majorities still believe that competition between political parties can lead to violent conflict. But in urban centers, the old political binary seems especially irrelevant. Many Mozambicans refer to "FRENAMO" to indicate their sense that the two parties collude to serve their own interests rather than those of their constituents. Moreover, citizens do not feel a strong affiliation to any particular party--but they do believe that corruption is on the rise, and that unemployment levels demand [PDF] urgent government attention.
The political mood of young city dwellers has fueled the campaign of an independent candidate for the presidency, Venancio Mondlane, who was backed by the PODEMOS party and claims that internal exit polls show he was the winner. Clearly, he was gearing up to challenge the results in court. But on October 19, Elvino Dias, Mondlane's legal advisor, and Paulo Guambe, a spokesman for PODEMOS, were shot dead in Maputo. When protesters gathered at the site of the killings on October 21, security forces pushed back with a heavy hand, firing live rounds at protesters. Celebration is not in the air, but tear gas is.
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The U.S. State Department issued a statement condemning the murders of Dias and Guambe, and took the opportunity to remind Mozambicans that "the only means to challenge results and demand accountability is through the official complaint process." No one wants to see escalating political violence. But urging people to trust the courts when prominent lawyers are being assassinated, and majorities believing that some, most, or all judges and magistrates are involved in corruption, is very weak tea.
Across the African continent, citizens have been mobilizing to express their dissatisfaction with dysfunctional democracies, economic strain, and high levels of corruption. That trifecta comes together in Mozambique, and outsiders interested in strengthening democratic governance and building lasting partnerships need more to offer these populations than calls for calm. It's telling that almost all observers inside and outside Mozambique assume that FRELIMO's candidate, Daniel Chapo, will be the next president, and that FRELIMO will retain its majority in the national assembly, regardless of what voters may have expressed on election day. When Mozambique's friends are as jaded as its leadership, they risk becoming a part of the problem in the eyes of citizens who believe that something different is possible.
