LAST week, the Senior Vice President of the World Bank group, Mr Indermit Gill, addressed the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and made profound statements. But what caught the attention of most Nigerians was his statement that: "This is only the beginning. Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 15 years to transform its economy and become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa."
Nigerians are asking: why do we need a whole 15 years to get out of the woods? If the leadership does the right thing, can't we achieve significant progress within a regime circle of four years? Can Nigeria survive this excruciating pain for 15 years? Won't there be consequences? First, let us analyse other aspects of Gills's speech. He said: "Nigeria is an important country at a critical crossroads."
He said further: "I am going to focus on Nigeria for a simple reason: Africa goes as Nigeria goes. Given its size and significance, the success of Nigeria's reforms will give a big boost to countries across the continent. Because the whole world has a stake in Africa's future, the whole world needs to pay attention to what Nigeria is trying to do." The whole world is interested in what happens in Nigeria.
Is it for the benefit of Nigerians and Africans, or is it in the interests of the West and super power to enable the world's status quo to be maintained? Will the citizens have to die to please the West? How long did it take China, India, Singapore, and the rest of them to come out of their shell? As a matter of fact, it is well known that a developed Nigeria will reduce incidents of negative migrations along the transAtlantic corridor. No country can handle it if a refugee crisis emerges in Nigeria and the whole world knows this.
It is left for us as a people to take the challenge and prove to people like Gill that you do not need forever to effect substantial development in your country. The way we are going, with the World Bank support, it appears that we must have to suffer before we can get things right. But how do you explain the optics from leadership? He even told us to our face that the elites are fleecing the poor. "There is suffering in all sections of Nigerian society, but especially among the poor and the young. They want good schools and colleges, affordable healthcare, decent jobs, and safe conditions that allow them to make full use of their potential. High inflation is hurting everyone, but it is hurting the poorest people the most. Oil wealth that ought to be used for the welfare of all Nigerians has for too long been used to benefit the elites."
He has not told us anything new here, even our President Bola Tinubu has been mouthing it as the reason he removed fuel subsidy, even though it is benefitting only the rich. But why are we not seeing the gains of the removal on the people? It is a good thing that he acknowledged that we have succeeded in the past. "Actually, I am referring to Nigeria between the years 2003 and 2007. During those four years, Nigeria implemented fiscal and exchange rate reforms. It introduced unprecedented transparency into the recording and allocation of oil revenues. It renegotiated its Paris Club debt, which had created a debt overhang that was choking the economy. The payoff was immense and immediate: for the first time in its history, Nigeria notched a BB- sovereign credit rating. It started to attract FDI. And everyone started to talk of 'Africa Rising'. Some years before that, Norway had taken a course very similar to Nigeria's between 2003 and 2007," Gill said.
We did this in four years under the regime of Olusegun Obasanjo. Why can't it be replicated under another four years? It is my fervent belief that the solution to our problems is grounded on transparent leadership and the political will to execute policies. Indeed Mr Gill listed the solutions as follows: "The basic principles that should guide reform are the same, and they are: One, learn from your policy mistakes; Two, let the market determine the exchange rate; Three, keep public debt sustainable; Four, adopt oil-price-based fiscal rules; Five, make accounting and allocation of oil revenues fully-completely-painfully transparent; Six, devise a public investment programme that promotes the diversification of the economy; Seven, above all, stay the course. Let me repeat that: Nigeria has to stay the course."
I loved the term he used here: "fully-completely-painfully transparent." That is what is needed, forget all about the grammar. In the light of our current despair, there is still light at the end of the tunnel: "Nigeria's population is under the age of 30. Its economic governance institutions have yet to be made credible. But it might take another decade to fully reap the dividends. But, if you stay the course, you will begin reaping them soon, as surely as night follows day. That is the end of the history lesson.
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Let's talk about today. Nigeria is once again at a crossroads. It has begun to implement a far-reaching, politically difficult reform with national, regional, and even global repercussions. Without solid progress in Nigeria, the sustainable development goals will remain out of reach. The elites are also being hurt by the reforms that started last year, but they did well in the past, and they have buffers. Ordinary Nigerians are being hurt more by the reforms. They were also hurt by the policies of the past, and they have no buffers. Their welfare should be uppermost in our minds."
One is happy that he said: "Nigeria's financing of fiscal deficits has finally ended". And we hope it remains so. The question we should be asking is: How do we benefit from these hardships? Nations reinvent themselves in times of adversity, and positive turnaround are achieved within reasonable time frames. That must be our focus.
* Ikhioya wrote from http://www.southsouthecho.com
