As the world faces an escalating climate crisis, COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, stands at a pivotal juncture for global cooperation and innovation in climate action. Building on decades of efforts since the first COP in 1995, which led to landmark agreements like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, this conference holds the potential for substantial breakthroughs in climate finance, equity, and global mitigation efforts. With an urgency to go beyond past promises, the COP29, lasting through 11th-22nd November 2024, has the potential to push for ambitious, inclusive, and equitable action.
Climate Finance: Bridging the Trust Deficit
Climate finance is expected to be a central concern at COP29, where the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) will replace the existing $100 billion target for supporting developing nations after 2025. Despite the initial pledge, wealthier countries have consistently fallen short, deepening mistrust between the Global North and South.
This shortfall in funding was highlighted at previous conferences, such as COP27, where it became evident that addressing the climate crisis would require trillions, not billions. Baku will serve as a critical platform to establish new, ambitious, and attainable financial goals.
Importantly, COP29 must address inclusivity, ensuring that vulnerable nations such as Vanuatu, Bangladesh, and Mozambique are part of the decision-making process. These countries, which bear the brunt of climate impacts, are often sidelined during negotiations, exacerbating existing inequalities in the provision of finance. Their participation is essential in rebuilding trust and making the funding mechanisms more responsive to their needs.
Another key focus will be on the role of emerging economies, particularly China and Saudi Arabia, which are set to play an increasing part in global climate finance. As economic power shifts, COP29 must strike a delicate balance between historical responsibility and current economic capacity. Wealthier nations, meanwhile, continue to face economic pressures, but the targets set in Baku must remain bold enough to inspire meaningful climate action, especially for the Global South.
Access to finance remains an ongoing challenge for many developing countries, where bureaucratic hurdles often limit access to mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund. Streamlining these processes, improving transparency, and removing red tape will be essential to enhancing the effectiveness of climate finance. Moreover, leveraging private sector involvement like India's success with solar energy investments, will be critical in filling the gap between public finance and the funds required to achieve meaningful progress on climate goals.
Loss and Damage: Operationalising climate justice
At COP29, significant strides will be made toward the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund, which saw substantial progress in 2024, including the appointment of the Philippines as the host for its governing board and the establishment of partnerships with key institutions like the World Bank. Negotiators are expected to approve interim steps and enhance funding arrangements to ensure that the fund effectively supports vulnerable countries facing climate-related damages.
The creation of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP27 represented a landmark victory for vulnerable nations, marking a pivotal step towards climate justice. However, COP29's critical task will be to operationalise this fund, ensuring that financial contributions are not only adequate but also equitably distributed among those most affected.
Central to these discussions will be the debate on financing mechanisms for the fund, including the potential for voluntary contributions, levies, or even a tax on the fossil fuel industry.
The governance structure of the fund must also prioritise the needs of the most impacted countries, particularly small island nations and other frontline states. Ultimately, the successful operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund will serve as a crucial test of the international community's commitment to equitable climate action and justice, reinforcing the imperative to support those disproportionately affected by climate change.
The Global Stocktake: A reality check on climate action
The Global Stocktake is one of the most critical mechanisms under the Paris Agreement, designed to assess global progress towards limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. However, the results thus far have painted a sobering picture: without significant changes, the world is on track for 2.4°C of warming by the end of the century. This divergence from agreed targets has placed immense pressure on countries to revise their NDCs and accelerate their transition to a low-carbon economy.
At COP29, the findings of the Global Stocktake will likely dominate negotiations, serving as a reality check for countries that have failed to deliver on their climate commitments. Major emitters such as China, the U.S., and the EU will be under intense scrutiny.
While these nations have made strides in renewable energy deployment and emissions reductions, the pace is not fast enough to stay within the 1.5°C threshold. Additionally, the Stocktake will highlight the gap between long-term pledges and short-term actions, pushing nations to present more concrete and immediate steps to phase out fossil fuels.
One of the key challenges at COP29 will be balancing the needs of developing nations, which are seeking support for adaptation and resilience, with the demand for more ambitious mitigation efforts from industrialised countries. This will require a careful recalibration of global efforts, ensuring that mitigation targets are not only strengthened but also implemented with the necessary support for those nations least responsible for, yet most affected by, the climate crisis.
Just Transition: Leaving no one behind
The concept of a just transition is becoming increasingly central to global climate discussions, especially as economies pivot from fossil fuels to renewables. COP29 will build on the momentum gained from COP27, where nations began to acknowledge the need for tangible strategies that ensure workers and communities currently dependent on fossil fuels are not left behind. However, the task is immense and requires countries to draft comprehensive plans for how they will manage this socio-economic shift.
For countries like South Africa, which is heavily reliant on coal, the just transition involves more than just replacing energy sources. It requires a holistic approach that includes retraining workers, ensuring job security, and creating alternative employment opportunities.
In the Global North, the emphasis has been on reducing fossil fuel use, but COP29 is expected to focus on how these wealthier nations can support the Global South in a manner that is equitable. Financial contributions will be essential to ensuring that countries such as India and Indonesia where the coal industry supports millions of livelihoods can transition smoothly.
Moreover, the just transition is not just about the labour market. It addresses broader societal issues such as economic diversification, environmental justice, and social equity. Many indigenous communities and vulnerable populations, particularly in developing nations, are directly impacted by climate change and may face displacement.
As these transitions unfold, it's crucial that their rights, traditions, and futures are safeguarded. COP29 will need to ensure that the promises of a just transition are not only rhetoric but are backed by actionable policies and sufficient financial support, creating a framework that fosters both climate action and economic justice.
Scaling up mitigation and adaptation: A dual imperative
One of the most significant challenges facing the global community is balancing the need for rapid mitigation with equally necessary adaptation strategies.
Climate mitigation focuses on reducing or preventing the emission of greenhouse gases, aiming to slow down global warming. Adaptation, on the other hand, addresses how communities and ecosystems adjust to the inevitable impacts of climate change.
At COP29, the spotlight will be on how countries can advance both simultaneously. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports have shown that the world is off track to meet the 1.5°C target, with current emission reduction trajectories falling short.
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To prevent catastrophic warming, countries will need to enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and implement immediate and far-reaching decarbonisation measures. This includes scaling up renewable energy projects, promoting energy efficiency, and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
Equally important is the need for adaptation. Communities in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa are already grappling with the impacts of climate change, including extreme droughts, floods, and food insecurity. Developing countries have been vocal in their calls for more robust adaptation finance, and COP29 will be a platform to demand greater commitments from wealthier nations.
For example, adaptation funding should be directed towards improving infrastructure, strengthening disaster preparedness, and investing in sustainable agricultural practices. Additionally, indigenous knowledge systems, which have been key in managing natural resources in these regions, should be integrated into adaptation strategies.
Baku will need to emphasise not only the importance of adaptation funding but also how it can be better allocated to the communities and sectors that need it most.
Ultimately, COP29 in Baku presents a defining moment for global climate action. With critical discussions on climate finance, equity, and just transitions, this conference offers a unique opportunity to move beyond past promises and drive forward ambitious, inclusive, and effective climate solutions.
If the international community rises to the occasion, COP29 could mark a turning point in the fight against climate change, strengthening global cooperation and providing the momentum needed to secure a sustainable future for all.
Sheriffdeen and Sulaiman are with Green Habitat Initiative, Abuja
