With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, Liberia is bracing for a potentially dramatic shift in its relationship with the United States. Early indications suggest Trump may take a more pragmatic, interest-first approach to foreign policy, departing sharply from the development-focused strategies of past administrations, both Republican and Democrat. For Liberia, this shift brings both risks and opportunities. Figures like Peter J. Pham, a former Trump advisor and now a key player in Liberia's resource sector, and tech magnate Elon Musk, whose Starlink has secured a pivotal digital license in Liberia, may hold the keys to advancing Liberia's interests amid Trump's policy shakeup. As President Joseph N. Boakai seeks to bolster trade, diplomacy, and aid for Liberia, navigating this new reality in Washington could define his legacy.
Key Players and Strategic Relationships
Liberia's ties with influential U.S. figures like Peter J. Pham and Elon Musk may become more significant under Trump's renewed leadership. Pham, who previously advised Trump on African affairs, is now a non-executive chairman of HPX, a mining company with licenses in Liberia and Guinea. His influence could serve as a bridge to Washington, potentially strengthening Liberia's access to U.S. decision-makers and advocating for Liberian interests as Trump's administration reshapes its foreign policy approach.
Elon Musk's company, Starlink, has recently obtained a license to provide satellite-based internet in Liberia, which could significantly improve the country's digital access, transforming sectors like education, health, and trade. With Trump's support for the private sector, Musk's initiatives in Liberia might enjoy further momentum, bringing Liberia's digital economy closer to the level of its neighbors. Musk's impact on U.S. tech and trade policies could be another potential lever for Liberia as it navigates this new chapter.
However, each connection could come at a cost as both HPX and Starlink compete for market share in Liberia. Boakai will face pressure to appear impartial while leveraging these connections to enhance Liberia's economic advantages.
AGOA and Agricultural Policy
One potential concern is the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Trump has expressed skepticism toward trade agreements, and his previous administration hinted at reducing U.S. involvement in AGOA, the BBC reported. This could affect Liberia's ability to export agricultural products to the U.S. market, an essential aspect of Boakai's agricultural development agenda, which emphasizes building a resilient, self-reliant sector that would reduce dependency on imports.
Should AGOA be phased out, Liberia may have to explore alternative trade agreements or focus on regional markets, which could impact Boakai's vision for Liberia's agricultural future. The policy shift could limit his administration's plans to modernize and expand local production, especially in key crops like rice and cassava. Hedging its bets and complicating Trump's strategic choices on this score, the Boakai Administration has already signed a landmark agreement with China. The deal will bring wide-ranging support to Liberia's agricultural sector, to accelerate mechanization, increase and diversify production, and support value addition and access to markets.
U.S. Foreign Aid and Development Funding
During his first term, Trump advocated for reducing foreign aid. This policy is likely to continue, posing challenges for Boakai's ambitions to revitalize Liberia's infrastructure, education, and healthcare sectors. Under former President George Weah, U.S. and international donors largely limited aid due to governance concerns. Boakai, who campaigned on accountability, will need resources to make good on his reform promises, and cuts in U.S. assistance could restrict his ability to deliver on these goals.
As a result, Liberia may look to private sector partnerships and other international donors to bridge the funding gap. However, a decline in American development support would require Liberia to adjust its development strategies significantly to maintain progress and political stability.
War and Economic Crimes Court
One aspect of U.S. policy under the Biden administration was its support for establishing a War and Economic Crimes Court (WECC) in Liberia. The Biden administration viewed this court as crucial to strengthening Liberia's democratic systems, as it would address issues of accountability and justice in the postwar nation. Support for the WECC was part of broader U.S. efforts to enhance Liberia's institutions, with development aid targeting governance reforms rather than purely economic interests. Now, with Trump's renewed tenure, Liberia could face uncertainty in sustaining the momentum for the WECC, as Trump's policy might deprioritize support for such governance-focused initiatives in favor of more transactional relations.
For Boakai, continuing the court's work would require other sources of support or partnerships with European and African nations committed to accountability measures. How Liberia manages this effort will be a test of Boakai's leadership in pursuing justice and institutional integrity in a challenging political climate.
U.N. Security Council Bid and Liberia's Diplomatic Role
Boakai's bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council is one of Liberia's most ambitious diplomatic goals in recent years (Liberian Observer). Securing a seat would position Liberia as a voice for Africa on key global issues, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East. Trump's pro-Russia stance could complicate Liberia's ability to navigate this role, as Liberia would face a balancing act between its position in the Security Council and its relationship with the U.S.
If Trump shifts the U.S. position to favor Russia, Liberia's role on the UNSC could bring additional pressures, demanding diplomatic finesse from Boakai's administration. Should Liberia skillfully manage this position, it might enhance its diplomatic standing globally, though tensions with the U.S. could arise over conflicting stances on international conflicts.
Shifts in U.S. Policy on Democracy and Governance
Under Biden, the U.S. pursued a strong pro-democracy stance in Liberia, frequently addressing corruption issues and sanctioning officials involved in governance scandals. This approach supported Liberia's efforts to bolster its institutions and uphold democratic norms. However, Trump's previous administration took a more hands-off approach, and a return to this style could lead to reduced U.S. support of governance in Liberia. Trump's own anti-democratic rhetoric and policies, during his first term, chipped away at America's governance soapbox. His new lease on power, now unchecked with a solid-red coalition in Congress, could knock the U.S. off that platform altogether.
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For Boakai, who has placed accountability at the forefront of his agenda, decreased pressure from the U.S. may impact his government's commitment to anti-corruption measures. As sanctions and external incentives decrease, Liberia may rely more on internal mechanisms and grassroots support to maintain governance standards, which could be challenging without sustained international scrutiny.
A second Trump presidency is indeed poised to be a game changer for Liberia -- whether for better or worse remains uncertain. On one hand, Boakai's ties with figures close to Trump could provide opportunities for collaboration and economic development. On the other, shifts in U.S. policy on trade, foreign aid, and democracy may place constraints on Liberia's growth and institutional progress -- and on relations with the West African nation's closest ally. As Boakai leads Liberia through these impending challenges, his administration's resilience and adaptability will be crucial in determining whether the nation can capitalize on new opportunities or encounter setbacks amid Trump's renewed leadership.
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Lilian Best is a political economist and journalist writing at the intersection of foreign policy, gender, and finance. She has held senior roles at the center of Liberia's economic development architecture and holds a B.A. and M.A. from UC Berkeley and Princeton University respectively.
