Africa: Explainer - Can COP29 Settle Climate Finance?

Azimi Abubakar, 50, a resident of Gasamu, wades through the floodwater in Jakusko LGA of Yobe State, Nigeria, on October 1, 2022. Between September 4 and 8, 2024, the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), in collaboration with the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the Yobe State Emergency Management Agency (YOSEMA), and the Nigerian Red Cross Society (NRCS) identified 255 locations in Yobe State that were impacted by floods or received internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to the flooding. A new UN report reveals that African cities will be among the hardest hit by the climate crisis.

What is COP29?

The Conference of Parties (COP) is the primary decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The annual meeting of the parties -- member states that have signed onto the UN convention -- is also referred to as COP. COP members have agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and ideally to 1.5 degrees Celsius, to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to invest in mitigation and adaptation. This involves ensuring that finance flows support these goals. Each member has the flexibility to decide how and at what pace they will fulfill their contributions to the climate goals and the financial targets.

COP29 is the 29th annual meeting of the Conference of Parties. It is taking place from November 11 - 22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Explain adaptation and mitigation.

Adaptation and mitigation are two ways scientists have identified to meet COP targets to slow global warming. An example of adaptation is the development of drought-resistant crops. Mitigation efforts include building sea walls to protect against rising sea levels and creating early warning systems for extreme weather events.

Why should Liberia care about climate change?

Liberia is among the world's greenest countries, with West Africa's largest forest and biggest carbon sink. We also generate 67 percent of our energy from hydropower. The government is also working to expand the power grid with two solar facilities.

But, like many of the world's developing countries -- characterized by lower standards of living, income, and economic and industrial development -- we generate the least amount of carbon emissions but often experience the most severe impacts of climate change. Due to our economic conditions, we also lack the financial resources to implement adaptation and mitigation initiatives and build climate-friendly infrastructure.

How much will it cost to combat climate change?

The current climate finance gap is estimated at between US$194 and US$366 billion per year, highlighting the significant financial challenge facing developing countries.

If we are not producing greenhouse gases, whoever is should pay!

Precisely. Developed countries have made a number of major commitments over nearly 20 years. They include:

  • The 2009 Copenhagen Accord pledged US$30 billion in "fast-start" finance from 2010 to 2012. Developed countries also agreed to mobilize US$100 billion per year by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. This was a voluntary commitment, and five big economies -- the United States, Brazil, South Africa, India, and China -- committed to supporting developing countries to meet their climate targets.
  • The 2015 Paris Agreement tasked developed countries -- the net producers of much of the world's carbon emissions -- with financially supporting adaptation and mitigation in developing countries.
  • COP27 in 2022 established the self-explanatory Loss and Damage Fund was set up for developing countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). To date, 23 countries, including the U.S., Norway, and Germany have pledged US$702 million to the fund. A transitional committee is spearheading the setup of the fund, including determining eligibility criteria, disbursement mechanisms, and governance structure. The committee is still working on these structures, once finalized, and with full financial support.

That sounds like a lot of pledging. Where's the progress?

Well, the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) 2024 Gap Report said the world is not providing enough funding to adapt. Of the minimum US$194 billion gap quoted earlier, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries (developed countries) had reached their US$100 billion per year commitment for developing countries, in 2022. A 2024 OECD Development Cooperation Report shows its member states have exceeded, providing US$115.9 billion.

Nonetheless, much of the funding raised and disbursed is going towards mitigation -- fixing what is already broken. Precious little -- US$22 billion in 2021 and US$28 billion in 2022 -- is going towards adaptation to create new solutions that prevent future environmental damage. And that adaptation financing has been provided mainly as credit, further adding to developing countries' debt stock, which has already risen in recent years.

Another challenge is the fragmented nature of climate financing courses. The United Nations is pushing for new collective climate finance to be set up. The Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are institutions set up by the UNFCCC and the World Bank so that countries can access funds to support adaptation and mitigation through projects. However, there are already several UN agencies within and outside of the UNFCCC structure that already have climate change-related mandates and funding. The lack of a clear window for developing countries' access to climate finance slows down the process of receiving funding.

This seems a bit frustrating. Why bother going to COP29?

Climate financing is critical to maintaining and building upon Liberia's gains -- and Liberia is benefitting from the COP framework somewhat. According to the OECD's 2024 report, Liberia was one of the top ten recipients of the Adaptation Fund, between 2016 and 2021, alongside The Gambia and Sierra Leone. Granted, within that period, the Adaptation Fund accounted for less than three percent of the total US$3.3 billion available. Other facilities -- the Climate Investment Funds, the Green Climate Fund, and the Global Environment Facility -- focused significantly larger funding envelopes on middle-income countries in Africa and worldwide.

The 29th Session of the Conference of Parties, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, will launch the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) to replace the US$100 billion goal established in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Furthermore, With more than 40,000 people expected to attend, according to Climate News, the conference affords the Liberian delegation the chance to network and engage international stakeholders on our needs in the fight against climate change.

Fine, we're going. What will be discussed?

The conference theme is "In Solidarity for a Green World." The program, as always, seeks to foster international cooperation among the parties to the agreement. Climate finance will be high on the agenda.

According to the official program, the conference will feature sessions on a wide variety of relevant subjects, including "Ocean Plastic and the Future of Clean Design," "Climate Justice and Equality," and "Leveraging Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on climate finance for methane reduction."

Do they know Trump is back? He pulled out from COP in 2017, oh...

I thought you said you didn't know anything about COP. Trump is back indeed, having been reelected last Tuesday. The news has raised global concern since he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, less than six months into his first term. He reasoned that the agreement imposed unfair economic burdens on Americans, workers, businesses, and taxpayers.

President Joe Biden reentered the Paris Agreement in 2021 with a commitment that the U.S. would slash its emissions in half by 2030 from 2005 levels.

Biden, who is exiting office in a few months, will be succeeded by Donald Trump. He will take office on January 20, 2025. But Trump, who has said on the campaign trail that climate change is "all a big hoax," has vowed to pull out again.

The COP29 agenda features a side event entitled: "Donald Trump, U.S., president-elect: Ramification of the U.S. President."

According to this research, the Green Climate Fund experienced a shortfall in expected funding from 2017 to 2020 to the amount of US$2 billion, with the US budget correspondingly spending that much less money.

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