The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified climate change as one of humanity's most significant health threat, with significant impacts across Africa. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns are severely having an affect on human health, compounding risks to individuals and communities. Particularly concerning is climate change's effect on vector-borne diseases; Shifting weather patterns will alter disease dynamics, the spread of diseases to new geographic areas, and increases the likelihood of disease resurgence, adding to existing challenges in public health.
This situation heightens both endemic and pandemic risks globally. Recent analysis by scientists at Scripps Research and University of Brussels indicated that climate change could extensively exacerbate public health challenges posed by Lassa fever. As temperature rises and rainfall patterns shift, viral transmission risks may extend beyond West Africa into Central and East Africa over the coming decades. This underscores an urgent need to intentionally integrate health considerations into national climate policies throughout Africa, using localised data to guide action. Building climate-resilient health systems, fostering cross-sectoral and cross-country collaboration for pandemic preparedness, and securing sustainable health financing and health solutions are among the essential strategies that require immediate, focused attention.
At the recently concluded Future of Health Conference, experts discussed one of the most pressing health challenges of our time -- pandemic preparedness in the context of climate change. In his keynote speech, Prof Muhammad Ali Pate, the Coordinating Minister of Health, and Social Welfare in Nigeria noted that "partnerships and coordination are central to overcoming these challenges. However, partnerships must be multi-stakeholder and constructive. We must complement one another rather than duplicating efforts."
During the conference, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) hosted a fireside chat, themed "Leveraging Multiplayer Collaborations for Pandemic Preparedness in the Context of Climate Change in West Africa." Moderated by the Head of Lassa Engagement at CEPI, Oyeronke Oyebanji, the fireside chat featured Ms. Elsie Ilori, former Director of Surveillance at the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and Dr. Julius S.M Gilayeneh, SR, the Deputy Director General of Technical Services at the National Public Health Institute of Liberia (NPHIL), both of whom bring decades of hands-on experience with disease outbreaks like Ebola, COVID-19, and Lassa fever in Nigeria and Liberia.
As West Africa grapples with climate-driven shifts in disease transmission patterns, the discussion emphasised the need for multisectoral collaboration to ensure rapid, effective responses to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. With the "100 Days Mission" to develop vaccines within 100 days of an outbreak, West African countries are exploring how collaborations can support this goal and enhance resilience against future pandemics.
Building resilience in the face of climate change
Climate change is altering the scale and geographic spread of vector-borne diseases, driving the transmission of diseases like Lassa fever into new regions. Cases are now being reported all year round, with international travel contributing to the detection of cases in previously unaffected areas.
Mrs Elsie Ilori, former Director of Surveillance at the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), explained that "initially, at the NCDC, we were getting reports of Lassa Fever just from December to April and those were usually the peak times, all the other months we didn't get reports of Lassa fever. So, from 2019, we started recording a high number of confirmed Lassa fever cases and it was being reported all year round, not only from December to April and I will attribute that to climate change."
Similarly in Liberia, Lassa fever cases were only reported between December and April, but since 2019, more cases have been recorded all year round. Seasonal variations and geographical shifts in the epidemiology of Lassa fever epidemics exist. Previously, Lassa fever was only reported in three of the fifteen counties of the country but now seven more have been reporting cases all year round since 2022.
Key takeaways and action points
Three key points were highlighted by experts during the fireside chat:
1. The need for localised climate health data for policy and action: The lack of localised, context-specific data hampers policy and practice that ensures that health systems are adequately equipped for climate-related challenges. This is due to the limited capacity of the countries to collect and analyse climate change data, which, in turn, fetters their ability to establish a clear link between climate change and the trend of infectious disease outbreaks like Lassa fever. However, countries can leverage multisectoral capacities through the One Health approach and the existing surveillance infrastructure to enhance country-level capacity to collect and analyse localised data for climate-health policies. Also, for Liberia, establishing climate meteorological stations will help to provide data on climate trends.
2. Multisectoral and cross-country collaboration as a driver of pandemic preparedness: The fight against climate-sensitive pathogens requires collaboration across diverse sectors. Involving all relevant stakeholders -- from public health to animal health, environmental sectors, finance, academia and the community -- ensures a holistic approach to addressing the complex web of climate change's impact on health. Involving the community has enormous benefits such as timely case detection and addressing vaccine hesitancy. In Nigeria, using an event-based surveillance system like "Tatafo" (loosely translating to "gossip" in Yoruba language) helped keep key stakeholders abreast of community happenings, leading to better control of outbreaks. Similarly, involving the community through the pilot "Community Action Network" in vaccine development helped reduce vaccine hesitancy in Liberia. Additionally, cross-country collaboration strengthens regional resilience through resource sharing, enhancing global health security in the face of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.
Dr Julius S.M Gilayeneh, Deputy Director General of Technical Services at the National Public Health Institute of Liberia (NPHIL) noted that, "...we [stakeholders] need the communities because they play a very critical role in epidemic preparedness and response. Bringing the communities along as key stakeholders, informing and engaging them at every stage so that when these vaccines and therapeutics are developed, they can accept them. Also, multisectoral collaboration should focus on "Target collaborations," targeted within specific regions so that a coordination mechanism exists and could be leveraged to address shared public health problems, combining resources and expertise."
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3. Achieving the 100 Days Mission is a global imperative: The "100 Days Mission," which aims to develop vaccines and medical countermeasures within 100 days of detecting a new outbreak, is not just ambitious but fundamental for global health security. However, achieving this mission is hinged on multi-sectoral and cross-country collaboration, leveraging diverse stakeholders' combined resources and capabilities to curb climate change's impact on health.
Ms Oyeronke Oyebanji, Head of Lassa Engagement at CEPI, explained that "there will be more outbreaks and there is a higher likelihood of pandemics with climate change affecting our countries. We need more tools to prepare, prevent and respond and that's part of the work we're doing at CEPI. Finally, collaboration is key for pandemic preparedness."
Looking ahead: From ideas to action
Climate change is already impacting the spread of infectious diseases in West Africa. Effective data collection, regional collaboration and community engagement are pivotal to building resilience against future outbreaks. Now is the time for countries to commence and sustain efforts to Prepare, Prevent and Respond in line with achieving the CEPI's 100-day mission in the event of an outbreak.
