As Lagos heads toward the 2027 gubernatorial race, two major contenders, Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat and House Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, stand out. The reason is simple: they are seasoned political players, they understand Lagos's intricate power dynamics, and they boast deep-rooted influence.

Hamzat's background is steeped in political legacy, with his late father, Oba Mufutau Hamzat, a founding member of the Justice Forum which is still very influential. Hamzat has a strong base built on both his reputation and family influence.

Obasa, in contrast, draws power from his unmatched grassroots support and resilience. Because he has navigated numerous political challenges unscathed, he commands respect in Lagos's local communities. Moreover, as the longest-serving Speaker, Obasa's tenure lets him understand the state as an insider, which only bolsters his grassroots base and political clout.

So, the Justice Forum and the Mandate Group--two dominant Lagos political factions--backed Hamzat and Obasa, respectively. This alliance gives both candidates a strategic advantage, with the Governance Advisory Council (GAC), originally shaped by President Bola Tinubu, expected to weigh heavily in this race.

While other names like Senator Tokunbo Abiru and Chief of Staff Femi Gbajabiamila have surfaced as potential contenders, neither enjoys the grassroots depth or local influence that Hamzat and Obasa wield. Though Abiru has corporate ties and Gbajabiamila holds national respect, their reach in Lagos politics pales in comparison.

Ultimately, the local government elections in Lagos will be a litmus test for both Hamzat and Obasa's influence. There's also the issue of control over local government chairmen, who will select delegates for the APC primaries. This essentially offers each candidate a critical edge, with grassroots manoeuvre set to intensify competition between the two camps.

For Lagos residents, supporting any candidate demands careful consideration of their strategic impact on the state. Hamzat and Obasa bring their strengths and followers, but only time will reveal who will uphold the diverse interests of Nigeria's most vibrant state.