Over 18.7 million Ghanaians are eligible to vote in Saturday's election.
Ghanaians will head to the polls on Saturday to elect a new president. This is as the curtain closes on President Nana Akufo-Addo's tenure, which ends in January.
According to the Electoral Commission of Ghana (EC), 12 candidates are running in Saturday's election: 11 men and one woman. One other woman, Akua Donkor, passed away recently. Four of the candidates are independent.
However, it looks like a two-horse race between old political foes. The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) nominated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, the first Muslim to be a candidate of a major political party since 1992 and the first non-Akan to lead the party. The main opposition party, the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is fielding former President John Mahama.
The two had slugged it out in the past three cycles as candidates or running mates.
President Akufo-Addo defeated Mr Mahama in 2016 and subsequently appointed Mr Bawumia as his vice president. 2020 was a repeat of the 2016 election, with Messrs Akufo-Addo and Bawumia defeating Mr Mahama again.
Messrs Bawumia and Mahama are also from the North. The former is from the North-east Region, while the latter is from the Savannah Region. This is the first time two northern candidates are being presented by the two major political parties.
However, analysts have identified two dark horses in this election. Nana Bediako and Alan Kyerematen, both running as independent candidates, are expected to take votes away from the two main candidates.
Mr Bediako, a wealthy property developer better known as Cheddar, focused on young people in his campaigns. Earlier in the year, he invited Peter Obi, a popular Nigerian politician, to an event to unveil his candidacy. According to local media reports, however, the government cancelled the event.
In the Nigerian 2023 presidential election, Mr Obi, running on a relatively unknown party, the Labour Party (LP), garnered a large following among young people and polled over six million votes to place third. With young people constituting the majority of Ghana's voter register, the strategy of targeting young people seems wise. However, several other factors, apart from demography, will determine the polls.
Meanwhile, Mr Kyerematen contested for the ruling NPP ticket but came third in the primary election. He subsequently registered as an independent candidate. There are also reports that he has attracted the support of some NPP chieftains.
Crunching the Figures
Of the 18.7 million registered voters, 9.6 million are female. According to the EC, the number of youths aged 18-35 is about 10.3 million. Also, there are 708,280 first-time registered voters.
The country, though operating a unitary government, has 40,648 polling units across 276 constituencies and 16 regions. To win the presidential election, a candidate must score over 50 per cent of the total votes.
"A person shall not be elected as President of Ghana unless, at the presidential election, the number of votes cast in his favour is more than fifty per cent of the total number of valid votes cast at the election," Article 63(3) of the Ghana Constitution reads.
If none of the candidates garners the required votes, the election will be rerun within 21 days between the two leading candidates.
"Where at a presidential election there are more than two candidates and no candidate obtains the number or percentage of votes specified in clause (3) of this article, a second election shall be held within twenty-one days after the previous election.
"(5) The candidates for a presidential election held under clause (4) of this article shall be the two candidates who obtained the two highest numbers of votes at the previous election," the constitution reads in part.
The last time the country had a rerun in a presidential election was in 2008 between Mr Akufo-Addo and John Atta Mills. The election was not concluded until January 2009 after a series of violent incidents in some parts of the country.
The issues shaping the campaign
So far, the 2024 presidential campaign has revolved around the economy, illegal mining, and debates over the LGBTQ+ issue.
The opposition, particularly Mr Mahama, has made the economy a key talking point. He has relentlessly accused the Akufo-Addo-led administration of mismanaging the economy. At a recent campaign stop, he described the last eight years of the NPP as "criminal supervision of the destruction of our economy."
He has attacked the government over borrowing and devaluing the local currency, the cedi.
"We have borrowed to the extent of not being able to pay our creditors, hence leading us to debt restructuring," Mr Mahama stated recently.
His jibes have been directed not just at the government but specifically at Mr Bawumia, an economist and former central banker who is seen as the face of the NPP government's economic policies.
The NPP dismissed Mr Mahama's argument, stating that the cedi's depreciation is not the only metric. The party pointed to the policy of free secondary education introduced by the current administration and challenged Mr Mahama to a debate.
"They are running around, saying that we have damaged the economy. We damaged the economy? Are you sure? Come on, let us debate," Peter Mac Manu, the campaign manager of the NPP, said during a meeting with Yiaga Africa's observation mission that visited the NPP campaign office in Accra.
"Let us debate in public in front of cameras so the people know whether we have ruined the economy compared to you. You are a former president, and we have your record. He keeps on talking about the exchange rate of when we took over. Is the exchange rate the only determinant of the economy?
"We have provided free senior secondary education. We have increased agriculture. During your time, agriculture was negative. We have built more hospitals and roads. We have secured the country internally," he stated.
Mr Bawumia will also be banking on some of the digital transformations under this administration, like the Ghana Card, mobile money interoperability, and digital government systems. However, the economy remains a major issue, particularly the government's inability to meet its obligations to creditors. There is also the question of the cost of living.
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Experts believe that the race may be decided on the economy.
There is also the "eight-year rule" phenomenon, as no party in Ghana's Fourth Republic has won three consecutive presidential elections.
The number game between the two parties
The emergence of two candidates from northern Ghana has significantly changed the political calculations because the northern regions usually favour the NDC. However, with Mr Bawumia from the North East Region, the permutation is expected to change.
The main battle, however, is in the South, particularly Greater Accra, which has about 3.7 million voters, followed by the Ashanti Region with 3.2 million, the Eastern Region with 1.79 million, and the Central Region with 1.73 million.
"This election highlights stark regional divides. Dr Bawumia enjoys support in NPP strongholds like Ashanti, Eastern, and Bono regions, while Mahama is strong in areas like Greater Accra and the Volta Region. Both candidates are mobilising voters in competitive regions. The outcome of this race will depend significantly on voter turnout, economic sentiment, and how well each candidate addresses the electorate's concerns about governance and development," Bernice Sam, a lawyer, stated during a presentation at the Secretariat of Yiaga Africa.
The race appears close, but the two parties continue to claim an upper hand in the race. On Saturday, Ghanaians will decide who gets to occupy the Jubilee House in January.
