Khartoum / Sennar / El Gezira / El Fasher — Nearly two years into the conflict between Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the latest report from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Centre warns that over 13 million people are at risk. The report tracks violence in 2024, highlighting clashes, air strikes, drones, and widespread civilian targeting.
Published yesterday, the report covers the period from 1 January to 29 November 2024. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has seen intense fighting focused on Khartoum, El Gezira, and North Darfur. Khartoum remains a key target as the capital, while El Gezira's strategic location makes it crucial for both sides.
Since October, the SAF has launched coordinated offensives in Khartoum, El Gezira, and Sennar to encircle RSF positions. Meanwhile, the RSF and allied militias have taken control of four out of five Darfur states and intensified efforts to seize El Fasher, North Darfur's capital.
Over 120 armed groups have participated in the conflict. The RSF has fought around 1,600 battles, closely followed by the SAF with 1,500. The Darfur Joint Force* and Arab militias have contributed to 273 and 232 battle events respectively. The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North under the leadership of Abdelaziz El Hilu (SPLM-N El Hilu), has fought 22 battles.
Violence against civilians is escalating, with 1,792 incidents recorded, resulting in 4,204 deaths. The RSF is responsible for 77 per cent of these atrocities, particularly after retaliatory attacks in El Gezira in October. The report notes that 35 per cent of civilian-targeted violence occurred in El Gezira, with Khartoum and North Darfur seeing 19 per cent and 17 per cent of incidents.
Air strikes and drone warfare are also escalating. ACLED recorded 1,001 air and drone attacks in 2024, with 703 airstrikes and 226 drone strikes conducted by the SAF. The RSF carried out 12 successful drone strikes, intercepting 44 others. Khartoum has borne the brunt of these aerial assaults.
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This report highlights the worsening situation in Sudan, with millions of civilians trapped in the crossfire and vital infrastructure in ruins. As the humanitarian crisis deepens and international aid remains crucial in halting the ongoing free fall, the path to peace grows ever more elusive.
* The Darfur Joint Force was formed in June 2022, as agreed on in the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement (JPA), to protect the people in the region. The force was made up of fighters of the Sudan Liberation Movement faction headed by Darfur Governor Minni Minawi (SLM-MM), the JEM faction led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim (JEM-GI), and several small rebel groups that signed the JPA. These movements renounced their neutrality in November last year and are now fighting the RSF alongside the Sudanese army. Since then, Sudanese media speak about the Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements, while the group's logo on their X and Facebook accounts says Sudanese Joint Force (and in Arabic Sudanese Joint Forces).
