KEY TAKEAWAYS
- A flawed election sparked violence and highlighted Mozambicans frustration with one-party rule.
- A return to war in Mozambique would lead to immense suffering and threaten U.S. interests.
- The U.S. can leverage its substantial investments in the country to help resolve the situation
Since its October general election, Mozambique has been experiencing spiraling, deadly political violence. Many Mozambicans, including the leading opposition candidate, saw the victory of the ruling Frelimo party as fraudulent. Frustration with decades of single-party dominance is mounting. Today, some Mozambicans are looking to international help to save their country, one of the poorest in the world, from a possible return to war. Time is of the essence for such diplomatic intervention. Given that few African countries receive as large a U.S. development commitment as Mozambique, the spotlight is on the United States.
For years, Mozambique was not a U.S. priority in Africa — but that has changed. The U.S. Development Finance Corporation and the Export-Import Bank have committed billions of dollars to projects in the southeast African nation. U.S. bilateral aid exceeded $550 million in 2023, among the highest in Africa, and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) signed a $537 million compact with Mozambique the same year. In 2022, Mozambique was among the few countries selected to receive focused attention and aid through the Global Fragility Act and the Department of Energy is financially backing a Mozambican lithium mine. Exxon Mobil is looking to finalize a $30 billion natural gas project in Mozambique.
One Party Rule and Flawed Elections
U.S. and other foreign investment materialized after national reconciliation that ended decades of war. Starting two years after its 1975 independence from Portugal, Mozambique suffered decades of war — which took the lives of one million Mozambicans — between the Frelimo government and the rebel Renamo force. The Cold War's end took steam out of the conflict and a peace agreement facilitated by the Mozambican Church Council, the Rome-based Catholic lay Community of Sant'Egidio and others was struck, followed by a major United Nations peacekeeping operation, with democratic elections being held in 1994. Frelimo candidates have won every presidential election since.
Election integrity under the Frelimo-controlled government has long been compromised. National elections in 2019 were widely viewed as being seriously flawed, as were 2023 local elections. The October 9 election that elected Frelimo presidential candidate Daniel Chapo over Venância Mondlane of the newly emergent Podemos party has brought the strongest criticism. The International Republican Institute's observation mission said: "The Mozambican election was marred by widespread irregularities, subsequent violence, and fraudulent practices that prevented a credible electoral outcome." Few believe this election reflected the will of the Mozambican people, who appear increasingly frustrated with Frelimo misgovernance and corruption.
After his lawyer was gunned down 10 days after election day in what many consider an assassination, Mondlane fled Mozambique for his safety, claimed himself the election winner, and used his expansive social media presence to call his many supporters to the streets for protest and civil disobedience. He has said he will return to the country on Thursday. Some Mondlane supporters and government security services are responsible for continuing instances of violence, with attacks on peaceful protesters and over 200 deaths and growing displacement. Infrastructure is being destroyed, and gangs have emerged amid lawlessness. The Mozambican economy is suffering, with international investment being paused while neighboring countries are being negatively impacted. With increasing volatility, there are concerns that the military could turn against the government. Looming is the January 15 inauguration of president-elect Daniel Chapo, with worries that ongoing violence could then explode into civil war.
Looming is the January 15 inauguration of president-elect Daniel Chapo, with worries that ongoing violence could then explode into civil war.
Mondlane, an evangelical pastor, has called for his followers to demonstrate peacefully and expressed willingness to negotiate a political resolution to the conflict. Elements of Frelimo are reportedly agreeable to a power-sharing arrangement, essentially voiding the election that could be rerun after the election apparatus is fundamentally reformed. The negotiated end of the war between Frelimo and Renamo provides some hope that the parties could agree to reform the government so that Frelimo doesn't maintain its unchecked state power to repress legitimate political opposition. Mondlane is looking to the international community to help broker political negotiations, as it has before.
Besides election-sparked violence, Mozambique is suffering from a deadly Islamist insurgency, centered in its northern province of Cabo Delgado, which has displaced nearly a million Mozambicans since 2017. While 2021 military interventions by Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwandan troops stopped the worst of the violence, the insurgency is far from over. Government efforts needed to address legitimate local grievances over natural resource extraction and stem jihadist recruiting will be further weakened by the ongoing political crisis. What many considered to be a governance crisis only in the north, where some Frelimo leaders are reportedly profiting from corrupt businesses, should have been addressed as a national problem, with Mozambicans countrywide feeling politically unrepresented and economically marginalized.
The U.S. Has the Leverage to Help
Initially focused on condemning the violence while defending peaceful protest, the U.S. recently noted concerns over the Constitutional Council's December 23 validation of the election, stating that "Civil society organizations, political parties, the media, and international observers, including those from the United States, cited significant irregularities in the tabulation process, as well as concern about the lack of transparency throughout the election period." While endorsing these concerns of others for now, the U.S. will have to make its own judgments about the election as governance is an element of the MCC compact with Mozambique.
After the Constitutional Council ruling, neighboring South Africa, with much to lose if the Mozambican conflict intensifies, offered to facilitate dialogue. It makes some sense for the SADC countries that are providing troops to improve security in Cabo Delgado — Angola, South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Namibia — to play a role in a political dialogue, though they appear biased, as a SADC election observation team failed to note election irregularities.
Any long-term resolution must address the poor governance and corruption that has characterized Mozambique for decades and which international donors have largely overlooked.
There is one reason for the U.S. to consider an active role in trying to resolve the Mozambican crisis: it has substantial interests, underscored by its Mozambican investments, in not seeing the country return to war, which would bring incalculable human suffering. The U.S. could be more impactful than others in mediation efforts, as its investments provide it leverage over the parties, particularly the government, to stay on a new, more politically and economically inclusive course. The MCC compact, for example, can and should be voided if there aren't substantial improvements in Mozambican governance. This leverage is more effective the closer the U.S. is to negotiations. Any such effort should respect Mozambican sovereignty and could build on a recent U.S. success in averting an African political crisis in Senegal, where it worked with others to stop its president from changing the constitution to extend his rule.
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The United States has geopolitical considerations. China has made major investments in Mozambique for decades. Russian ties go back to the Soviet Union's backing of Frelimo during the Cold War. Firmly in the Frelimo camp, neither country today is positioned to help broker a political settlement. Both countries would welcome a U.S. retreat from Mozambique.
The immediate goal of any negotiations should be to stop the violence. Any long-term resolution must address the poor governance and corruption that has characterized Mozambique for decades and which international donors have largely overlooked. Opposition expectations should be held within reason. This diplomacy would not be easy in one of the world's poorest countries, requiring constant international pressure for transparency and accountability. In any new political or governance arrangements, the interests of Mozambican civil society that has been pressing for greater democracy and protection of human rights should be strongly registered, while those perpetrating violence should be isolated.
The U.S. faces many foreign policy challenges. While it may be tempting to ignore Mozambique's crisis, doing so would discount substantial U.S. investment and interests in this promising yet fragile country. Moreover, if the U.S. is going to compete effectively against China and others — building African partnerships to strengthen its critical mineral supply chains and advancing its broad interests on the continent — it will need to help address the challenging governance issues Mozambique and other countries across the continent are facing.
Thomas P. Sheehy is a USIP Distinguished Fellow. Joseph Sany, Ph.D. is Vice President, Africa Center
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