Rainfall from March to May in 2025 is expected to be "slightly below" the levels observed in the same period in previous years, the Rwanda Meteorology Agency announced on January 22 during the National Climate Outlook Forum.
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Aimable Gahigi, the Director General of the weather forecasting agency, explained that from March to May 2025, Rwanda will receive between 250 millimeters and 550 millimeters of rainfall.
Historically, the March to May rainy season has seen rainfall amounts ranging between 250 millimeters and 650 millimeters.
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The forecast shows that rainfall ranging from 250 to 350 millimeters is expected in Gatsibo, Nyagatare, Rwamagana, Bugesera, as well as most parts of Kayonza and western Ngoma Districts.
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Rainfall between 350 and 450 millimeters is expected over Kirehe and Ngororero Districts, Kigali City, Northern Province, and Southern Province, except for most parts of Nyaruguru and Nyamagabe districts, and the eastern parts of Nyabihu, Karongi, Rutsiro, Kayonza, and Ngoma districts.
Rainfall between 450 and 550 millimeters is expected in Rusizi, Nyamasheke, Rubavu, and western parts of Nyabihu, as well as most parts of Rutsiro, Karongi, Nyaruguru, and Nyamagabe Districts.
Factors behind low rainfall
The main factors that will affect rainfall during the March to May 2025 season are the ongoing La Niña in the Pacific Ocean and the neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
La Niña is a climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean, and it is the opposite of El Niño.
During La Niña, the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, while the western Pacific and parts of Southeast Asia become warmer.
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This cooling affects global weather patterns, often bringing wetter conditions to some regions and drier conditions to others. It can also influence the strength and frequency of storms, including hurricanes.
Between February 10 and 20, 2025, rainfall is expected to begin in the districts of Nyaruguru, Nyamagabe, Nyamasheke, Rusizi, most parts of southwestern Karongi, a small portion of Huye, and the southern parts of Gisagara districts.
Between February 20 and March 2, 2025, rainfall is expected to begin in the Northern Province, Kigali City, Rubavu, Nyabihu, Rutsiro, Ngororero, Rwamagana, Ngoma, Bugesera, the southern parts of Kirehe, the eastern parts of Karongi, and the Southern Province, except in Nyamagabe, Nyaruguru, and the southern parts of Huye and Gisagara districts.
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Between March 2 and 12, 2025, rainfall is expected to begin in the districts of Nyagatare, Gatsibo, Kayonza, and the northern parts of Kirehe District.
Integrating Climate Information
The weather agency has advised public institutions, NGOs, the private sector, and the general public to use the seasonal forecast in their planning and decision-making to increase productivity and mitigate risks associated with prevailing weather conditions in the upcoming March to May 2025 seasonal rainfall.
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"We should integrate climate information into various sectors," Gahigi said.
Jolie Dusabe, the Deputy Chief of the Party of Hinga Wunguke, said they plan to use climate information to benefit 500,000 farmers. By 2028, the $28 million Hinga Wunguke project aims to significantly improve Rwanda's agricultural productivity, strengthen resilience to climate change, and increase profitability for farmers.
Between May 10 and 20, 2025, the cessation (end of the season) of seasonal rainfall is expected in Kigali City, Eastern Province, Northern Province, and Southern Province, except for the western parts of Nyaruguru and Nyamagabe districts, and Western Province, except for Nyamasheke, Rusizi, and the southern parts of Karongi districts.
Between May 20 and 30, 2025, the cessation is expected in Nyamasheke, Rusizi, the southern parts of Karongi districts, and the western parts of Nyaruguru and Nyamagabe districts.
