Economic experts have remained optimistic about Nigeria's economic outlook for 2025, projecting growth rates averaging four per cent, even as they expect inflation to decrease, potentially below 30 per cent.
Though challenges persist, including high public debt and reliance on crude oil exports, the experts say that the government's fiscal discipline and policy reforms are crucial for achieving stabilisation and unlocking economic potential. Despite these challenges, experts see opportunities for investment and growth, particularly in the energy sector.
CEO of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, highlighted Nigeria's robust economic growth outlook, suggesting that the likelihood of a recession is currently very low.
He also addressed claims about overstated petrol consumption, asserting that Nigeria does not consume 70 to 80 million litres daily.
Speaking as the keynote speaker at the 2025 Edition of The Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), Christ the Lord Parish, Lekki Economic Summit, held in Lagos over the weekend, Rewane, a renowned economist, highlighted that out of 12 key economic variables, seven are trending positively (in green) while five remain negative (in red) for 2025-26.
Analysing recent developments, he referred to the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), a 50 per cent hike in telecom charges post-rebasing, inflation dropping to 24 per cent, and a reduction in money supply growth as critical factors. He explained the Naira's movement from N1,910 to N1,150 before climbing again.
This indicates that volatility has decreased as the economy approaches equilibrium, and the magnitude of adjustments required to restore balance is shrinking.
On the issue of government taxation, he remarked, "Every time government revenue increases due to higher tax collections, levies, and similar measures, the amount of disposable income available to consumers declines." He noted that businesses have reported a 15 per cent decline in sales nationwide for the quarter, with the northern region of Nigeria experiencing a steeper decline of 40-45 per cent, largely due to higher poverty levels.
Rewane emphasised, "Revenue is not synonymous with growth. Fixing revenue alone will not automatically translate to growth. Growth is a function of revenue, investment, and other economic activities."
In anticipation of upcoming GDP figures, he highlighted that previous GDP data, calculated using older methodologies, showed growth across various sectors, some expanding while others contracted or slowed. However, a closer examination reveals that shrinking and slowing sectors are diminishing, signalling resilience and improving productivity.
Nigeria's total factor productivity had been negative for over a decade, but it is now positive and strengthening, reducing the likelihood of a recession. With a stable foundation for growth, Nigeria's GDP is estimated between $228 billion and $300 billion, potentially rising to $400-$500 billion after rebasing.
Consumer resistance, technology-driven awareness, and cost efficiency via competition are critical factors fuelling economic progress, even if the results are not immediately visible.
During the summit, the CEO of RTC Advisory Services Limited, Opeyemi Agbaje, alongside founder/chief consultant, B Adedipe & Associates, Dr Abiodun Adedipe, and founder of Nairametrics, Ugodre Obi-Chukwu underscored the role of youth in driving future growth. They also acknowledged the older generation's contributions as the nation gradually recovers from economic challenges.
Their analysis follows a period marked by significant economic headwinds, including a decline post-2014, two recessions in the last decade, and overall growth below 3 per cent. For a nation with Nigeria's vast resources and potential, this was indeed a challenging phase.
However, the panellists observed a positive turnaround in 2024, with consistent quarterly GDP growth. This recovery is attributed to economic and structural reforms implemented in preceding years.
While expressing optimism about the trajectory of Nigeria's economy, the panellists stressed the need to address underperformance in specific sectors to fully unlock the country's economic potential.
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The host and Assistant Pastor in Charge of Region 11 and Pastor in Charge of Lagos Province 20, RCCG, Pastor Tunde Netufo, also emphasised the importance of knowledge. Drawing from Hosea 4:6, he pointed out that, "My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge," underscoring the divine value placed on acquiring wisdom and understanding.
He further highlighted the Church's responsibility to empower its members and the community with practical tools for self-sustenance, stating, "Our economic summits, coupled with fundamental kingdom truths, provide both members and non-members with the skill sets required to thrive physically and spiritually. It is God's divine agenda to prosper His people."
The hugely successful summit witnessed over 1,800 online and over 1,000 physical attendance. Following the success witnessed, preparations for the next edition are already in the works.
