There are strong indications that the personal ambitions of some principal actors in the coalition of political leaders plotting the defeat of President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election may weaken the movement.
At a press conference on the declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State on Thursday, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar confirmed that the formation of a coalition ahead of the 2027 general election was underway.
The coalition's leading figures include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (LP), former governors Nasir El-Rufai (SDP), Fayemi Kayode (APC), Rotimi Amaechi (APC), former APC national chairman Abdullahi Adamu, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Babachir Lawal, amongst others.
However, while negotiations are still ongoing, there appears to be disagreement amongst some of the coalition leaders with presidential ambitions ahead of the 2027 polls.
Insiders named those whose presidential ambitions are almost causing a stalemate in the group as the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2023 general election, Atiku Abubakar, that of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, and the presidential aspirant on the platform of the APC, Rotimi Amaechi.
Credible sources who preferred anonymity said while supporters of Atiku are angling for him to be adopted as a consensus presidential candidate of the coalition, the Obi and Amaechi camps are insisting that the presidency should remain in the southern region.
"While we are making progress towards making the coalition a strong and united front capable of ousting the Tinubu-led APC government in 2027, there is, however, a little hiccup, and this is due to the ambitions of some of our leaders.
"This is almost dividing the coalition along northern and southern lines. Those from the north are aligning together to ensure Atiku is the presidential candidate to be adopted by the coalition.
"However, those from the south are insisting that power must remain in the region. Therefore, Peter Obi of LP and Rotimi Amaechi of APC are being considered among the advocates for the south's power retention.
"Obviously, there are disagreements among the stakeholders on this issue of zoning. Secondly, there is the issue of which political party to adopt or merge with for the coalition to forge ahead with the common task of rescuing Nigeria from sinking under the hands of Tinubu and APC," one of the sources said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Another source hinted that the coalition is also lobbying leaders of political parties to build consensus towards a platform and possible presidential candidate.
Reacting to concerns surrounding the coalition movement, Atiku's spokesman Paul Ibe refuted claims that the ambitions of the opposition leaders are a hurdle.
Ibe, who criticised the APC for projecting such claims, said the APC should focus on governance and stop being preoccupied with opposition matters.
He likened the APC to parents whose children are irresponsible but are busy accusing the children of their neighbours of fictional behaviour.
"The mission of the opposition leaders is clear. It is to build a robust coalition strong enough to resist the machinations of the ruling party. We need to rescue Nigeria from the rot and degradation that the APC has brought it to," he said.
He told the ruling party to stop creating crises where there are none.
Meanwhile, former national vice chairman, North-West, of the APC, Salihu Lukman, who is a key leader in the coalition of political leaders plotting the defeat of President Tinubu in the 2027 general election, on Monday said negotiations were ongoing and nothing had been finalised about the movement.
Lukman said while this has generated wide interest and national debate with varied interpretations, the coalition is a work in progress, and once concluded, a formal announcement will be made with all the details regarding the composition of membership, programme of action, and framework for contesting the 2027 elections.
He said consultations were at advanced stages and involved basically reaching out to prospective members of the coalition and mapping out issues for agreements among those concerned.
Lukman, a political strategist, said the issues of zoning and a political party to be adopted had not been decided at the moment.
"At this stage of negotiations, the main focus is around getting leaders to agree to work together; and substantially, there is strong recognition that prospective members should set aside personal ambitions to contest the 2027 elections. The second issue being negotiated is the political party that will be the platform for the 2027 electoral contest.
"These two issues are carefully being negotiated. While acknowledging that with respect to the requirement for members to set aside personal ambitions, there are strong interests being expressed around issues of zoning by individual leaders, these issues are yet to be formally discussed at any consultation meeting.
"The speculation, therefore, by some media analysts about disagreements stalemating the coalition negotiation is not true. The consensus among leaders is that the final decision about the processes of candidates' selection can only be handled and determined when there is agreement regarding the political party on whose platform the coalition will field candidates.
"The question of negotiating the political party is the most difficult challenge. This is an area that many members of the coalition have been engaging in different ways for more than a year now," he said.
Lukman disclosed that many groups, including some members of the coalition, have filed applications to register political parties but, for reasons best known to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), these applications were being frustrated.
"The only conclusion that can be reached in this circumstance is that INEC has decided that it will not register new parties. To make matters worse, many of the existing registered parties who did not meet the electoral threshold of winning any seats in the last general elections face the threat of deregistration.
"Given this unpleasant reality, members of the coalition opened negotiations with some of the existing parties that have met the electoral threshold. Interestingly, somehow, some of the prospective parties being negotiated are being remotely pushed into crisis mode in the same way PDP, Labour Party, and NNPP have been entangled with existential problems. It is almost a clear case of destroying the legal basis for any party to qualify to field candidates for 2027 other than the ruling APC.
"This is quite unfortunate coming during the tenure of a party that is envisioned to be progressive. It is even more troubling when it is during the tenure of a leader - President Bola Ahmed Tinubu - who has unarguably been at the vanguard of Nigeria's democratic struggle.
"The way the Nigerian democratic space is rapidly shrinking can only be imagined under a military government. The determination and resilience of Nigerians are being called into question under the current APC government led by President Tinubu," he said.
The former Director-General of the Progressives Governors' Forum assured that leaders of the coalition were committed to providing the needed leadership to rescue Nigerian democracy.
He appealed to all patriotic Nigerians to recognise the urgency of the situation facing the country, adding that they do not have the luxury of waiting until they get to 2027 only to discover that Nigerians have been smouldered into a legal knockout.
Lukman expressed confidence that Nigerian democracy can be rescued, but rescuing it is fundamentally about producing a political party that can guarantee and facilitate competitive political contests in the country.
"We recognise and respect all the interests, criticisms, and reservations expressed by Nigerians, including those expressed by political leaders who, in every respect, are potential members of the coalition. Our strong appeal to all political leaders and Nigerians generally is that we must not allow personal interests to undermine our capacity to contribute to Nigeria's democratic development.
"Difficult as the situation may appear, the negotiation about the political party that will be the platform for the 2027 electoral contest is about to be concluded. All attempts to push Nigeria into a one-party state will be defeated. Once the negotiation about the political party is concluded, Nigerians will be formally informed of all the details, and mobilisation towards 2027 will commence.
"Other secondary negotiations will also commence. Details of the procedure and processes of candidates' selection will be similarly negotiated publicly through activities and meetings of organs of the party. Members of the party will be actively involved. All these critical issues will not be matters left to public speculation or reduced to the manipulative antics of political leaders.
"Rescuing Nigerian democracy is beyond simplistic debates of fielding candidates and the associated debates about the quality and where they come from. Everything must be done to produce elected leaders at all levels who will be accountable and, in every respect, democratic in their dealings with Nigerians.
"Everything must be done to close this chapter of democratic national frustrations, which only produces emperors. This is the goal of the coalition, for which we appeal for the support of all patriotic Nigerians. We don't envisage it will be an easy task, but we are determined to succeed," he added.
However, a House of Representatives member, Hon Dawodu Dawodu Bashiru Ayinla, has said the coalition movement cannot upstage the APC in 2027.
The lawmaker, who represents Oshodi-Isolo I constituency, said this when he featured on Arise TV programme The Morning Show.
He said, "It is safe to say Tinubu is still trying to govern, and people are in a corner ganging up."
While he noted that the coalition is legal and allowed in a democracy, "Our party will govern when the politics start and we will defeat them," he added.
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It's Sad Our Politicians Push Personal Over National Interest - Don
A political science lecturer at the Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Dr Christian Okeke, has said it is also sad that most Nigerian politicians push personal ambitions far above party and national interests to the extent that they choose to destroy anything standing in their way.
He also said it is too early to write off coalitions being formed ahead of the 2027 general elections and expressed hope that the actors will agree to put their personal interests to check for the sake of national development.
"It is too early to write off coalitions being formed ahead of the 2027 general elections. People who dismiss the convergence of the disgruntled politicians at this stage may be in for a rude shock after all.
"They should not forget in a hurry the 2013 coalition of politicians and the merger of the three political parties, including a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, that disappointed naysayers and pessimists to eventually wrestle power from the ruling People's Democratic Party.
"It is indisputable and sad too that most Nigerian politicians push personal ambitions far above party and national interests to the extent that they choose to destroy anything standing in their way.
"However, doubting Thomases may need to first observe, dispassionately analyse and await the outcome of what this crop of politicians is cooking at this time.
"Their efforts may not be in vain after all, especially if they truly commit to achieving the common good and particularly if the political system undergoes the much-needed reformation.
"If their aspiration succeeds, the political space would have been further liberalised and opportunities provided for wider political participation. If not for anything, their coming together is a statement that the country is at a crossroads and would serve to put the ruling elites on their toes.
"It is my belief that many are waiting for the coalition to wax strong and really become formidable. If that happens, then 2027 will become more interesting; more so, another solution would have been offered to our sick polity.
"Everything that will make the 2027 general elections truly competitive, including the coalition being put together, is a welcome development, even as it is hoped that the actors will agree to put their personal interests to check for the sake of national development," Okeke added.
