What is on the horizon for former Senate president, Dr Bukola Saraki, ahead of the next general election?
This question continues to intrigue political observers familiar with Saraki's trajectory since his debut in national politics, beginning with his appointment as Special Assistant on Budget by former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2000.
Speculations abound -- will Saraki return to the All Progressives Congress (APC)? Will he make another attempt at the presidency? Could he recontest the Kwara Central senatorial seat? Or is he considering stepping back entirely from politics -- the very arena that brought him prominence over the decades?
While the momentum for the 2027 general election is gradually building, Saraki has adopted a notably low profile. Apart from his last public comment on the controversy involving Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan, the former Senate president has largely maintained silence, even as opposition figures like former Kaduna State governor, Nasiru El-Rufai, intensify efforts to form a coalition against President Bola Tinubu.
Observers find it unusual that Saraki -- long considered one of Nigeria's most strategic and influential politicians -- remains conspicuously absent from coalition talks involving key opposition players, including his party's 2023 presidential candidate and known ally, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.
Following back-to-back defeats in 2019 and 2023, Saraki's influence in both Kwara State, which he governed for eight years, and national politics has waned. Yet insiders insist his quietude is not borne of disinterest but deliberate strategy.
Strategic silence and dining table politics
Recent checks within his camp reveal that Saraki is playing a long game.
During a recent visit to Ilorin for the Nikkah ceremony of the Mufti of Ilorin, Sheikh Suleiman Faruk Onikijipa, Saraki reportedly met with a select group of loyalists at his Broadway residence. At the private gathering, the former governor is said to have shared his assessment of the political landscape.
A senior insider at the meeting told Daily Trust that Saraki categorically ruled out any plan to return to the APC, blaming such rumours on certain APC actors attempting to sow confusion.
"We discussed it during the meeting and he debunked it," the source said.
Regarding the ongoing merger talks among opposition figures, the source disclosed that Saraki is sceptical about the feasibility of registering a new party or getting the best out of any of the already registered ones before the 2027 polls.
"He believes Tinubu, being a smart politician, won't allow INEC to register any new political party. Besides, many governors from both APC and PDP have pledged loyalty to the president in hopes of securing their political futures," he added.
The implication, he explained, is that opposition governors are unlikely to fund any new coalition, hence Saraki's reluctance to publicly align with the movement.
A Wike-style game plan?
According to another top member of the Saraki political family, the former Senate president may be considering a strategy similar to that of the FCT minister, Nyesom Wike.
"With what is on ground, the Saraki political dynasty is likely to adopt the Wike model," the source revealed. "We are not leaving PDP. You know how Wike and others like Makinde and Ortom supported Tinubu as PDP members and are benefiting from their allegiance. This is where we are now."
He further ruled out the possibility of Saraki joining the Social Democratic Party (SDP), while hinting that political dynamics could shift rapidly.
Another senior insider confirmed that Saraki is not currently eyeing any elective position.
"That he is silent is deliberate. National politics is important to us, but Kwara is just as significant. Look at the coalition. Which of the current APC governors is ready to defect to the PDP? Even some PDP governors are not willing to fund the party. Saraki is watching all of this carefully and will make a decision that is in the best interest of the country," he said.
A third senior member of the Saraki camp added that keeping his cards close to the chest is itself a strategic move.
"Politics will remain what it is. Not making his stand known now is also part of politics. That he has not announced anything about the coalition doesn't mean he's in or out. He's observing and calculating," he said.
Rebuilding the dynasty in Kwara
Back in Kwara State, Saraki's political structure--once the most formidable in the state--has been severely tested since the crack within the dynasty before the patriarch, Senator Olusola Saraki's demise and the eventual 'Otoge' revolution of 2019. In 2023, over 20 key members of the PDP defected to the APC or resigned, including former party scribe Razak Lawal, Organising Secretary Bilikis Oniyangi, Woman Leader Alhaja Riskat Abdullahi, and long-time loyalist Alhaji Bibire Ajape.
Still, party officials insist the dynasty is far from dead.
Hon. Babatunde Mohammed, PDP chairman in Kwara and former Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, told Daily Trust that the party is "fully prepared and intact" for the 2027 general elections.
Commenting on Saraki's silence regarding the national coalition, Babatunde said, "As party chairman, I don't want to talk much about that for now until our NEC meeting around May. But in Kwara, all elective positions will be contested. There will be no imposition of candidates."
PDP spokesperson, Olushola Adewara, also reaffirmed Saraki's loyalty to the PDP, saying, "He is not in any other place. We are very prepared as a party for the next election."
Another senior member of the dynasty, who declined to be named, said those who left the party had long disengaged and their departure was not a major concern.
Dr Bakare Adebola, National Secretary of the NPSA, told Daily Trust: "No dynasty dies in politics except it decides to. We don't know what the APC government will do in four years' time or the kind of candidate the Sarakites will field in 2027. He may be somebody that is so loved and people will have no choice.
"I don't envisage the end of the dynasty; it depends on how they want to navigate the present situation. One of the mistakes the Saraki dynasty made was to go into its shell immediately; they lost in 2019 and waited till the election was around the corner before coming out.
"Following the same snail pattern will amount to another defeat in 2027. Now out of power, if they refuse to go back to their shell and continue to embark on programmes to ring a bell with the name, they may come back at the next election with required funding."
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
He urged Saraki to draw lessons from Kano, where the Kwankwasiyya movement, after losing in 2019, bounced back in 2023 to win the governorship and two senatorial seats.
A Machiavellian approach for the future?
When contacted, Saraki's media aide, Yusuph Olaniyonu, said: "Saraki is in Saudi Arabia for Lesser Hajj and I am not with him so I don't know his position regarding the coalition."
But Prof. Hassan Saliu, National President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), offered an analytical perspective: "Maybe he is still observing the situation to know where to pitch his tent.
"If those moving around may not accommodate him, do you think he will go with them? He has to do his own calculations, and there are options -- whether to remain in PDP, join the APC or leave to join another party."
Dr Seyid Hassan Cisse, a lecturer of Politics and Governance at Kwara State University, said: "Saraki is a very smart politician, no doubt, but the PDP needs to work on their inner caucus. The likes of Wike, Makinde and other top party leaders are just hanging -- you don't know where they belong to.
"I do not perceive that Saraki is coming for presidency because I don't think it will be a smart decision for the party to bring a candidate from the North Central. But he will have a significant influence over anybody coming.
"At times when people are being silent like this, they are being Machiavellian. Saraki is a great political chesser and knows how to play his games. It's just that God at times shows His supreme presence."
On the state of his local structure, he added: "Saraki will never give up at home because it's better to keep the dynasty intact, especially now that the game in Kwara is becoming very tight."
