The events of the past few weeks make abundantly clear that Tinubu wants to replace Shettima with another running mate. The automatic endorsement of the President by APC without Shettima, the drama in Gombe, the gun-point removal of Ganduje, and the open jostling for the post by many presidential associates all point to that. But the clearest pointer to this was the "clarification" by the National Vice Chairman (North East) of the APC, Mustapha Salihu, that "There is only one ticket. To suggest a running mate at this stage is to put the cart before the horse. It is the prerogative of the presidential candidate, not ours."
This statement effectively declares Shettima's position as vacant because what Salihu describes is the exception, not the rule. Salihu's statement makes sense only in the context of a president seeking to switch their running mate, and only Tinubu's personal political body language could have given rise to it. Otherwise, the endorsement of a president for second term comes automatically with that of their vice president, as was the case for Buhari in 2019, Jonathan in 2011 and 2015, and even Obasanjo in 2003.
Vice-presidential swaps on a single ticket for second-term elections are extremely rare in presidential democracies globally, with the last exact case being by Franklin Roosevelt in the US in 1944.
Keep up with the latest headlines on WhatsApp | LinkedIn
But the point, for today, is that Tinubu's quest to replace Shettima introduces three different unknowns into the political matrix of 2027: why replace Shettima, who is the replacement, and what the consequences could be for him and APC. All of these leave President Tinubu with a decision to make, possibly the most consequential of his political career so far. Perhaps, he has already made his decision--what with the gun-point removal of Ganduje as the party's national chair last Friday--and is only waiting to announce it. Perhaps, he is still mulling over all the possibilities and consequences of which hand to deal, and how.
Tinubu's first unknown is why he feels a need to replace Shettima in the first place. Under normal circumstances, there should be no further talk about a running mate, as there was none under Jonathan or Buhari. But Tinubu is a different kind of president, one who rules by pitching the heads of even his closest associates against one another. Such tactics are the hallmark of a leader who trusts no one, and to whom everyone around him is expendable in the quest for the ultimate goal. But that these tactics are working for him say much more about the character of the people around him--particularly the northern politicians as a group--than about Tinubu's style of politics or leadership.
If we agree that Tinubu clearly wants to replace Shettima, then, there can be only personal or political reasons for that. The political reasons would be easier to explain, but the personal ones may be more defining for Tinubu. Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who worked in the presidency until a few months ago, has said that Tinubu and Shettima enjoy "a good chemistry" between them. Apparently, that is not enough to secure Shettima's place on the ticket for the next election. Otherwise, this whole conversation would be muted, and the indicative theatrics in the political arena would be pointless and non-existent.
In other words, if there are any specific personal reasons between Tinubu and Shettima that are strong enough for the former to be shopping for a replacement for the latter, to the pundit, these would be absolute unknown unknowns, and therefore, no point blabbing about what one doesn't know and cannot know. But on the political side, if Tinubu's ultimate goal is to win the 2027 presidential election, then his choice is already limited. He cannot choose Remi, Seyi or anyone south of the River Niger, since doing that would imperil the whole project, as happened to Chief Awolowo in 1979 and 1983.
That leaves him with only a northern choice. By the past weekend, the number of probable northern candidates for the post had swelled on social media, with Nuhu Ribadu, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Uba Sani, Yakubu Dogara, Hadiza Bala Usman, Umaru Bago, and George Akume all rumoured to be in consideration. And then, of course, there is the sitting Vice President Kashim Shettima. It is easy to sneer at such a long list, but the very fact that there is a national conversation about this issue at all means no one is improbable, and the list might yet be longer.
I personally cannot see how anyone in this list offers Tinubu a higher political or electoral value than what Shettima has already given, and can yet give. And I say this with all due consideration and respect for all. True, Shettima can only give Borno in direct votes. But none else can do better than that, and only Kwankwaso, Bago, Akume, and perhaps Uba Sani can be relied upon to give even that. Ribadu, Barau, Dogara, and Usman would struggle to deliver their states. Kwankwaso's 1.5 million votes in 2023 are certainly tantalising, but there is not much guarantee they would be replicated in the completely different context of 2027.
And as for northern and national political appeals, only Kwankwaso can match Shettima, but would scarcely surpass him. By itself, a swap would stir up strong feelings of betrayal and disapproval among ordinary northern voters, many of whom could well share the anger that flared up in Gombe two weeks ago. More importantly, even in the difficult circumstances of the past two years, Shettima has carved out a national reputation for himself as a most loyal, patient and able assistant and unifier, who to this day preaches nothing other than support for Tinubu and his policies, even where and when it is most inconvenient to do so.
Moreover, to the extent of what is publicly known, Shettima has not done so much out of step against Tinubu to warrant replacement, or for the Nigerian public to accept dropping him as normal political practice. Thus, any replacement must first defray the political costs of publicly humiliating Shettima, and then, on top of that, the replacement must still add even far more electoral value for Tinubu to justify the swap, not hypothetically but in reality. This political huddle is not impossible, but it would be extremely difficult for any other northern politician to cross, when you have other strong northerners in the opposition camp chasing.
As Machiavelli knows, fighting weaker opponents can be tricky because the public loves the innocent David. In short, replacing Shettima simultaneously offers low benefits and high costs for Tinubu. In my view, therefore, replacing Shettima is a needless known unknown because should Tinubu give Shettima nothing to lose, the outcome can be politically messy for both, but more so for the boss.
Beyond that, a presidential hopeful, particularly an incumbent one who seeks to swap deputies during a second-term election, must picture the political unknowns of working together with another after victory, if it happens. In Nigeria, presidents and governors are viscerally distrustful of their deputies, and are frequently looking over their shoulders for the slightest hint of suspicion. Sometimes, the problem derives from a natural mismatch in the personalities of the principal and their deputy, or the high-handedness of the former, or the unchecked ambition of the latter, or yet, the political circumstances that put the two on the same ticket.
Most often, however, the problem is the hidden ambitions of the people around the principal and deputy, who engage in toxic political whispers and other forms of scheming for their own self-interested agendas. Such whispers and schemes are the core stuff required for elevation or survival in Nigeria's corridors of power, and all in a wider political culture that is both heavily personalised and superstitious at the same time. Still, all of this visceral politics builds on and feeds into the inevitable constitutional provision that a president or governor must have a known successor, whose only job is just that: succession.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
If anything, this provision has taught us the folly of copying foreign constitutions for use in our context because no Nigerian president or governor has been able to handle this issue, although some have managed it better than others. We can, and indeed should, find some ways to tweak our constitution in this respect. But in the moment, the basic human failing that this provision throws up in our context has only given rise to fear and distrust between presidents and governors on the one hand, and vice presidents and deputy governors on the other. In that sense, Shettima is a known unknown; every other possibility is an unknown unknown.
Finally, there is the most unknown variable of all: Tinubu's suspense and delay tactics. President Tinubu might be enjoying playing the northern politicians close to him against one another by keeping or pretending to keep the vice-presidential slot open, even when it is by all logic and morality, already filled. Also, the northern politicians who are falling over themselves and jostling for a position one of them has already filled must know that their actions only certainly make Tinubu stronger and themselves weaker in the overall equation. The gun-point forced resignation of Ganduje is just the beginning; much worse could happen to any one of them. That is the political cost of disunity and unchecked personal ambition.
Still, Napoleon once said that each time he appoints one person to a high post, he makes nine enemies and one ingrate. The more Tinubu delays this issue, the more problematic the outcome would likely be for him, since those who feel themselves much invested in the chase could well turn against him if they eventually lose out, as all but one of them must.
After all, Tinubu himself has left no one in doubt that personal ambition is the only consideration that matters. We all wait to see.
