The International Air Transport Association (IATA) yesterday released data for May 2025 global air cargo markets showing that total demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), rose by 2.2% compared to May 2024 levels (+3.0% for international operations).
However, African airlines saw a 2.1% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in the same month while capacity increased by 2.7% year-on-year.
But in terms of global passenger demand, African airlines saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand, according to IATA data.
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For the cargo demand, globally capacity measured in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 2.0% compared to May 2024 (+2.6% for international operations).
"Air cargo demand globally grew 2.2% in May. That is encouraging news as a 10.7% drop in traffic on the Asia to North America trade lane illustrated the dampening effect of shifting US trade policies.
"Even as these policies evolve, already we can see the air cargo sector's well-tested resilience helping shippers to accommodate supply chain needs to flexibly hold back, re-route or accelerate deliveries," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.
IATA identified several factors in the operating environment, saying, "Year-on-year, world industrial production rose 2.6% in April 2025. Air cargo volumes grew 6.8% over the same period, outpacing global goods trade growth of 3.8%.
"Jet fuel prices in May 2025 were 18.8% lower than the previous year and 4.3% below the previous month.
"Global manufacturing contracted in May, with the PMI falling to 49.1, below the 50 mark that signals growth. New export orders also remained in negative territory at 48, reflecting pressure from recent U.S. trade policy changes."
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 8.3% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May, the strongest growth of all regions. Capacity increased by 5.7% year-on-year.
European carriers saw 1.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. Capacity increased 1.5% year-on-year while Middle Eastern carriers saw 3.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in May while capacity increased by 4.2% year-on-year.
The association said Trade Lane Growth: A significant decrease in the Asia-North America trade lane was expected and realized as the effect of front-loading faded (moving goods to market in advance of tariffs coming into effect) and changes to the de-minimis exemption on small package shipments (particularly those associated with e-commerce) were enforced. As cargo flows reorganized, several route areas responded with surprising growth.
Similarly, the association released data for May 2025 global passenger demand, showing total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), up 5.0% compared to May 2024.
Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), was also up 5.0% year-on-year. The May load factor was 83.4% (-0.1 ppt compared to May 2024).
International demand rose 6.7% compared to May 2024. Capacity was up 6.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.2% (+0.2 ppt compared to May 2024). This is a record load factor on international flights for May.
African airlines saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand while capacity was up 6.2% year-on-year.
The load factor was 74.9% (+2.2 ppt compared to May 2024). Africa-Asia is the fastest-growing international corridor, with an expansion of 15.9%.
Domestic demand increased 2.1% compared to May 2024 while capacity was up 2.8% year-on-year. Similarly, the report indicated that the load factor was 83.7% (-0.5 ppt compared to May 2024).
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'Geopolitical instability, a challenge'
"Air travel demand growth was uneven in May. Globally, the industry reported 5% growth with Asia-Pacific taking the lead at 9.4%. The outlier was North America which reported a 0.5% decline, led by a 1.7% fall in the US domestic market.
"Severe disruptions in the Middle East in late June remind us that geopolitical instability remains a challenge in some regions as airlines maintain safe operations with minimal passenger inconvenience.
The impact of such instability on oil prices--which remained low throughout May--is also a critical factor to monitor. Importantly, consumer confidence appears to be strong with forward bookings for the peak Northern summer travel season, giving good reason for optimism," said Willie Walsh, IATA's director general.
