Crisis Group expert Arrey E. Ntui assesses President Paul Biya's determination to stay in office and its implications for the October poll.
On 13 July, Cameroon's president, Paul Biya, posted on social media that he will run in the presidential election set for 12 October 2025. While his announcement came as no surprise, his determination to stay in office beyond the 42 years that he has already served raises widespread concerns. Aged 92, Biya is the world's oldest head of state. Should he win the election, which appears likely in the absence of an opposition coalition, he will be 99 years old when his term ends. Biya has already stepped back from day-to-day government business in recent years, leaving regime loyalists wrangling over control of key areas. Yet few dare to openly challenge Biya: the ruling Cameroon's People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) has not held a congress to elect a leader for fourteen years. And his inner circle is quick to sweep any talk of succession under the rug, leaving Cameroonians wrestling with a sense of deep political stasis.
The lack of succession planning has frayed the ruling coalition, known as the Presidential Majority. Biya has long used the alliance to co-opt political rivals and quash opposition against the CPDM. Over the past three weeks, however, the Presidential Majority lost two experienced ministers from the northern regions, which traditionally back Biya. Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Bello Bouba Maïgari felt pressured to withdraw from the alliance by a support base frustrated with insecurity and poverty in the north. Both announced that they intend to run as candidates in the election, too.
Meanwhile, calls for Biya to step aside are mounting despite elite-sponsored rallies in support of the president. Leaders of the Catholic Church and civil society say that the time has come for a new head of state. Even the CPDM, which has always been intolerant of internal dissent, is showing signs of strain: last week, long-serving government ministers René Emmanuel Sadi and Jacques Fame Ndongo openly expressed differing opinions as to the chance that Biya would stand.
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To his credit, Biya has kept Cameroon economically stable and managed to attract large flows of foreign investment. But his political record is mixed. He failed to broker a durable solution to the Anglophone separatist conflict that has plagued the North West and South West regions since 2017, opting instead for a protracted military campaign that has alienated Anglophone residents. In the Far North, his ambitious reconstruction plan for the region risks being thwarted by a fresh surge in attacks from Nigeria-based Islamist militants.
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Biya's candidacy has unsettled Cameroonians, many of whom had hoped he would finally pick a successor. Candidates have until 21 July to submit applications, after which the Constitutional Council will publish the final list by 13 August. Although some erstwhile supporters could decide to challenge him in the polls, Biya may still form new alliances. However, growing internal dissent within the ruling party, coupled with the defection of Biya's northern allies, could fuel political tensions in the coming months.
