President Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently said that Nigeria's economy which had gone through a tough period has now stabilised under his administration.
Tinubu stated this while speaking on the two years of his administration.
Background
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Speaking at the 14th National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) at the Banquet Hall of State House in Abuja, the President told governors of his party that Nigerians were still complaining about lack of development at the grassroots, and urged them to do more.
Acknowledging the economic challenges, Tinubu affirmed that progress had been made under his administration.
He cited the record N14.9 trillion in revenue collected by the Federal Inland Revenue Service in the first six months of the year, a 43 per cent increase from the amount collected in 2024.
"It is not easy to navigate the stormy waters of economic instability. Now, the economy is stabilised--there is no fear for the country except for continued upward movement and sustained growth. I can assure you," he stated.
Verification:
Although the President made extensive comments on different sectors, Daily Trust verified his claim on the economy, and found out that what the president said was misleading and not in tandem with the current realities on ground.
Verifying the president's claim, Daily Trust analysed key economic indices which meet the World Bank's criteria to ascertain whether an economy is performing or not. These criteria include inflation, debt level, exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), energy stability, MSMEs prosperity and distribution of natural resources.
Inflation
Daily Trust reports that inflation rate in Nigeria increased by approximately 55% from May 2023 when President Tinubu took over up until December 2024.
As of May 2023, when the Tinubu government took over the helm of affairs, data from National Bureau of Statistics showed that the country's consumer price stood at 22.41.
In one year, inflation rate increased by 11.54 per cent. Inflation rose to 22.79% in June 2023 and later 24.08% according to the National Bureau of Statistics. In July, inflation surged to 24.08%. By August 2023, headline inflation rate increased to 25.80%. By September, inflation rose again to 26.72% and in October 2023, the headline inflation rate increased again to 27.33%
In November 2023, inflation rate increased again to 28.20% and later increased to 28.92% to wrap up the year 2023.
By January 2024, the headline inflation rate had surged to 29.90 % and further surged to 31.70% in February 2024. In March 2024, the headline inflation rate increased further to 33.20%.
By April 2024, Nigeria's headline inflation rate was already as high ss 33.69%.
In May 2024, the headline inflation rate again increased to 33.95%. In June 2024, the headline inflation rate increased to 34.19%
However, in July 2024, inflation eased to 33.40 per cent, first time in over 18months.
In August 2024, the headline inflation rate further eased to 32.15% but later increased to 32.70 in September 2024. By October 2024, headline inflation rate rose again to 33.88%.
In November 2024, the headline inflation rate was 34.60%. In December 2024, the headline inflation rate was 34.80% from 34.60% in November 2024. Also, food inflation rate was 39.84%, representing an 18-year high under the Tinubu government.
Fast forward to January 2025, against the realities of prices of food and other commodities, inflation rate dropped to 24.48% from 34.80 per cent following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics.
In February 2025, the headline inflation rate further eased to 23.18%. In March 2025, Nigeria's inflation rate increased to 24.23%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This represents an increase from the 23.18% recorded in February 2025.
In April 2025, headline inflation rate eased to 23.71%. In May, inflation rate further eased to 22.97%. Furthermore, Nigeria's inflation rate fell to 22.22% in June 2025, down from 22.97 in May.
Experts had attributed the rise in inflation which reached 18 years high under the Tinubu administration to subsidy removal which was not carefully planned as well as the floating of the exchange rates.
Consequently, there is a consensus among economists and financial institutions, including the World Bank, that single-digit inflation is crucial for a stable economy.
Moroever, high inflation, especially double-digit inflation, is generally seen as disruptive to economic stability, hindering growth and impacting the welfare of citizens.
Therefore, Nigeria's current inflation rate at over 22 per cent is seen as high and far from stabilising a volatile economy like Nigeria that is susceptible to external shocks like international oil prices among others.
Also, at the just concluded Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN, the governor of the Bank, Olayemi Cardoso noted that the ultimate target of the Bank is to hit a single digit inflation rate as that is the only way to guarantee efficient economic growth and stability.
Debt
On debt level, as of May 2023 before President Tinubu took over power, Nigeria's total public debt, including external and domestic debt, stood at N87.38 trillion.
However, recent statistics from the Debt Management Office showed that Nigeria's debt skyrocketed from N87.3 trillion in May 2023 to N149.39 trillion as of March 31 2025. This shows debt increase of about 80 per cent in just two years.
The figure also shows a year-on-year increase of N27.72 trillion or 22.8% when compared to the N121.67 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
This shows that under the current administration borrowing has been on the rise showing a significant increase in the first two years of current President Tinubu.
Fuel prices
On the day of his inauguration on May 29th 2023, the President announced the removal of fuel subsidy which saw fuel prices rise from N187 per liter to over N1,000.
However, as at the time of this fact check, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and its outlets are selling at N890 per litre while other stations are selling at N895 per litre.
The removal had ripple effects on the economy. Transport fares had gone high as well as cost of commodities in the market. The policy which was widely criticised by experts as ill-timed also had negative impact on the purchasing power of Nigerians
Till date, Nigerians are still groaning over the removal as many are still struggling to make ends meet due to the scorching effect of the action which has shot the prices of items over the roof.
Exchange rates
One of the key barometers used in measuring the stability of any economy is its exchange rates. However, that is not the case with Nigeria as the exchange rate has not witnessed stability in the last two years of President Tinubu's administration. In June, the CBN floated the Naira which saw the currency trading at N630 to $1 in the initial stages. Subsequently, the Naira kept falling to the dollar on different occasions until it reached N1,300 to $1 and later N1,500 to $1 and further went to an all-time low of N1,800.
It later eased to N1,600 to $1 and is currently trading at N1,532 to $1 as at the time of this Fact check.
Gross Domestic Product
After the National Bureau of Statistics rebased Gross Domestic Product to capture the informal sector, Nigeria's GDP rose to N372.8 trillion in 2024 from N314.02 trillion in 2023.
In nominal terms, the rebased GDP for 2019 stood at N205.09trillion, N213.63 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.
The statistics bureau adopted 2019 as its base year away from 2010 that's previously reported.
The rebasing exercise covers the period from 2019 to 2023 and reflects changes in the economy's structure, sectoral contributions, and data sources.
However, Nigeria only retained its status as the fourth largest economy in Africa despite a rebasing exercise that expanded the country's gross domestic product (GDP).
Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, says Nigeria needs to achieve at least a 7 percent annual GDP growth to significantly improve the lives of its poorest and most vulnerable citizens.
Edun spoke recently at a high-level policy dialogue on local government fiscal autonomy, convened in Abuja by Agora Policy.
The IMF projected that Nigeria's real GDP growth is only expected to expand by 3.4 percent in 2025.
Energy sufficiency
Energy is one critical aspect of every thriving economy as many activities both human and mechanical depend on it to ensure stability of any economy.
However, adequate electricity supply has remained a challenge especially for business owners across the country.
The recent categorisation of consumers from Band A to Band D has not also helped matters as Nigerians have complained severally on paying higher amounts without value.
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Earlier this month, the Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu has disclosed that about N6 trillion revenue is required annually to ensure steady power supply in Nigeria.
Adelabu who disclosed while speaking at the Nigerian Oil and Gas Energy Week in Abuja said significant amount of investment is needed to improve power generation and distribution in the country.
Prosperity of MSMEs
Micro, Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (MSMEs) remain the backbone of every economy whether developing or developed.
In Nigeria today, statistics show that about 40 million MSMEs contribute 48 per cent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
These MSMEs are in different sectors of the economy ranging from agriculture, services, and mining among others.
However, one challenge has always been multiple taxation, lack of access to steady electricity, forex instability as well as the inability for government to provide a conducive atmosphere for business to thrive.
These have led to many businesses folding up due to their inability to cope with high energy cost, taxation and other hinderances for MSMEs to flourish.
The direct impact of fuel subsidy removal and devaluation of the Naira has left many businesses both local and multinationals in coma, with some of them even exiting the country in the last two years of the Tinubu administration.
Experts have blamed the departures on the country's economic crisis, especially the continuous decline in the value of its currency, the Naira.
"The Central Bank of Nigeria eliminated the fixed price for foreign exchange trading in the country last June, a strategy to close the gap between the demand and supply of foreign currencies like the U.S. dollar. The move, however, seems to have created more problems for multinational companies operating in the country," Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Public Enterprise, had said while advocating for a favourable environment for private enterprises in Nigeria.
Conclusion
Verifying the key economic parameters that determine if an economy is in a good shape, checks by Daily Trust show that the main economic indices have revealed that vital factors that qualify an economy to be stabilised are still missing currently in Nigeria. As such, the claim by President Tinubu that economy has stabilised is MISLEADING and far away from the current realities.
