South Sudan is at risk of major upheaval. President Salva Kiir's dismantling of the 2018 peace deal that ended the civil war and his recent move to elevate political newcomer Benjamin Bol Mel, potentially as his successor, have pushed the country into new turmoil. With the economy in disarray, a severe humanitarian crisis and escalating violence in Equatoria and Upper Nile regions, the future of the world's youngest country is at stake.
President Kiir's political moves bring renewed instability
Early signs of this political crisis emerged in October 2024. Weakened by the loss of revenue from oil exports due to the war in neighbouring Sudan and rumours of his fragile health, Kiir launched a series of bold moves to consolidate his power. He dismissed an opposition governor in Western Equatoria State and two vice-presidents. Kiir then appointed Benjamin Bol Mel, a businessman and his protégé, as a vice-president in February 2025.
Things took an ugly turn in March 2025 when violence erupted between army forces and militias backing First Vice-President Riek Machar. Shortly after, Kiir placed Machar under house arrest. At this point, Crisis Group sounded the alarm on the risk of another civil war. The previous one between forces supporting Kiir and Machar ended in a 2018 peace deal.
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Bol Mel's meteoric rise continued into May 2025 when Kiir made him the ruling party's deputy chair. South Sudan's powerful elites do not all support Bol Mel, and his ambition sparked renewed violence and military mobilisation from opposition forces. The rapidity of Bol Mel's ascent has also deepened fissures within President Kiir's power base.
A regime prone to instability
Much of this political crisis can be traced back to Kiir's twenty-year rule marked by power struggles. To emerge as, and remain, South Sudan's leader, Kiir has built a political house of cards based on his strengths: astute political maneuvering and a quiet and effective ability to build consensus and unite disparate factions. Any successor is likely to face many challenges following in Kiir's footsteps.
Compounding these risks is Kiir's decision to jettison the 2018 power-sharing agreement that put an end to South Sudan's bloody civil war. That conflict started in 2013 when Kiir said that Machar was planning a coup d'état. Since Machar's March 2025 arrest, his top lieutenants have since mostly fled the capital, Juba, and some of them are preparing for war.
The risks of instability are clear. Should Kiir leave office, it is not clear if Bol Mel, or anyone else, will be able to hold South Sudan's political system together. It is even more dangerous if a potential transition takes place without consultation or consensus among powerful factions, as is seemingly the case now.
The need for regional diplomacy
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Urgent and collective action is required from President Kiir and relevant African and global powers to find a way forward at this critical juncture. As we have called for recently, the priority should be to prevent an immediate escalation of violence. Those with influence over Kiir's government, including the governments of Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Africa and Tanzania, should urge restraint and also push for a broader forum for South Sudan's disparate elites to discuss the country's future. Resolving Machar's fate is delicate but crucial. The African Union and the Inter Governmental Authority of Development regional organisation should support such initiatives.
It's likely Kiir will resist these kinds of interventions, but a united front gives them a better chance of success. The United Nations, with its large mission in South Sudan, should also lend its weight and take measures to protect civilians should violence escalate. Despite fatigue from African and other powers with their efforts to help South Sudan, due to the lack of progress, the moment is too important to ignore.
