The Super Eagles must win to stay in the race. Even finishing second may not guarantee a place, with other groups producing stronger runners-up.
The Free State Toyota Stadium in Bloemfontein will host one of Africa's biggest football battles on Tuesday as Nigeria's Super Eagles take on South Africa's Bafana Bafana in a high-stakes 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifier.
Tuesday's game will kick off at 6 p.m. South African time (5 p.m. in Nigeria).
For South Africa, the game offers a chance to move within touching distance of their first World Cup appearance since hosting the tournament in 2010.
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For Nigeria, it is about survival. The three-time African champions trail the group leaders by six points, with only three games left to play. Defeat would almost certainly end their hopes of direct qualification.
Contrasting Journeys
When the draws for the qualifiers were conducted, Nigeria appeared to be in an 'easy' group with South Africa the only recognisable threat.
However, inconsistency and instability have marked Nigeria's qualification campaign.
The Super Eagles have had three coaches since the start of the qualifiers--José Peseiro, Finidi George, and now Eric Chelle.
Under the first two, the team failed to record a win, with a string of draws and a loss, leaving them playing catch-up.
Chelle finally delivered back-to-back victories over Rwanda, but the disappointing home draw against Zimbabwe meant he still faces the uphill task of closing the gap on South Africa and Benin.
South Africa, by contrast, have built momentum after a shaky start. Hugo Broos' side has collected 16 points from seven matches, winning all three of their home qualifiers so far.
Their recent 3-0 demolition of Lesotho (an away fixture) underlined their attacking threat, led by Burnley forward Lyle Foster, while their defensive solidity has been equally impressive.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Nigeria have held the upper hand, but recent meetings suggest a fine margin. The last five clashes have produced four 1-1 draws, including their tense AFCON 2023 semi-final.
In nine recent encounters, the Super Eagles have scored 10 goals and conceded nine--proof of how evenly matched these sides have become.
The Super Eagles can, however, build on the record they have never lost a competitive game on South African soil.
Team News
Both teams head into the clash with selection headaches.
For South Africa, coach Hugo Broos is expected to reshuffle his defence after Nyiko Mobbie and Thabo Brendon Moloisane were forced off injured during the win over Lesotho.
Their absence opens the door for changes on the right side of Bafana Bafana's backline. In attack, Burnley striker Lyle Foster remains the man to watch, having scored and assisted in that 3-0 victory to take his tally to two goals and one assist in the qualifiers.
Nigeria, meanwhile, must do without star forward Victor Osimhen, who limped off in the first half of the 1-0 win against Rwanda.
His absence leaves a major gap in Eric Chelle's frontline. The coach now faces a decision between in-form Tolu Arokodare, who grabbed the decisive goal in Uyo, and Cyriel Dessers to lead the attack.
There are also midfield questions. Frank Onyeka struggled before being replaced at half-time against Rwanda, raising the possibility of Fisayo Dele-Bashiru or Raphael Onyedika stepping into the diamond setup to add fresh energy.
Probable lineups
Nigeria (4-4-2): Nwabali; Aina, Troost-Ekong, Bassey, Onyemaechi; Ndidi, Onyedika, Iwobi; Lookman; Simon, Arokodare.
South Africa (4-2-3-1): Williams; Monyane, Ndamane, Mbokazi, Modiba; Mbatha, Mokoena; Appollis, Mbule, Nkota; Foster.
What the coaches are saying:
"You know that Nigeria have a much better team than that one of Lesotho that we played on Friday, so, we will have to take other majors and other tactical things than we did in the game of Lesotho." Hugo Broos
"We have come here to play for the three points, so we will be sending out the team that will get the job done. We are happy to have overcome Rwanda but we have to conquer here tomorrow in order to be in a good position for the qualification."- Eric Chelle
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What's at Stake
South Africa are six points clear of Nigeria and five ahead of Benin, giving them a clear path to qualification. The Super Eagles, however, must win to stay in the race. Even finishing second may not guarantee a place, with other groups producing stronger runners-up.
For Nigeria, Tuesday is more than just another qualifier--it could be the night that defines whether they remain contenders or spectators at the next World Cup.
For South Africa, it could be the moment they take a giant step toward ending 15 years of absence from football's biggest stage.
Prediction
The Super Eagles are more desperate, with no other pathway to qualification. With their backs against the wall, they should be able to get a slim win over their hosts
South Africa 1-2 Nigeria
