Nigeria: MPC Member Projects Naira At N1,400/$1 Before Year-End

A member of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Professor Murtala Sagagi, has projected that the naira will continue to appreciate and could strengthen to about N1,400 to the dollar before the end of the year.

He hinged the outlook on the recent uptick in daily crude oil production, fresh capital inflows, and an improved balance of payments position.

Sagagi made the projection in his personal statement at the MPC's July meeting, the details of which were released by the apex bank on Friday.

He said: "Previous structural reforms implemented over the last three decades have recorded limited successes in overcoming structural rigidities in Nigeria. Limited economic diversification and overreliance on debt by the government have worsened the vulnerability of the economy to shocks and fluctuations in global commodity prices. Since mid-2023, unlocking opportunities for economic diversification and associated welfare improvement has remained the ultimate goal of the current structural reforms.

"However, even with the removal of fuel subsidy and liberalisation of the exchange rates, the appetite for unfettered spending by the government has grown even stronger. In the first quarter of 2025, the country has witnessed an increase in total public debt from N144.67 trillion as of December 31, 2024, to N149.39 trillion as of March 31, 2025. The country's debt profile is deteriorating and thus shrinking the fiscal space due to huge debt service cost."

Also supporting the exchange rate stability, Bala Moh'd Bello, in his personal statement, noted: In the external sector, the naira exchange rate has remained relatively stable, reflecting the benefits of tighter liquidity conditions, increased investor confidence, and the effective implementation of recent adjustments to the foreign exchange (FX) management framework.

He said, "Speculative activities in the FX market have declined significantly, fostering greater transparency and promoting market-based price discovery. This stability is expected to persist over the medium term, supported by rising external reserves which stood at $40.11 billion as of July 18, 2025, equivalent to approximately 9.5 months of import cover."

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